2023 Fantasy Football: Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft for Superflex Leagues

May 8, 2023

Chris Gregory's Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft for Superflex Fantasy Football leagues.

With the NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, Dynasty Rookie Draft season is upon us, and the start of Dynasty Startup season is just around the corner. This means that many of you are likely wondering what to do with this year's rookie class. It's a fair question, but the answer will largely depend on the format of your leagues.

Traditionally, quarterbacks have always been selected at the top of Superflex dynasty drafts, but not in non-Superflex leagues. Last year was an exception to this trend, however, due to a historically weak quarterback class in 2022. Superflex rookie drafts resembled non-Superflex drafts, with one or no quarterbacks being taken in the first round. This should change this year, with the 2023 quarterback class rebounding nicely. However, there is one potential exception that could make 2023 another outlier year.

Bijan Robinson is a transcendent talent who can do everything at fantasy’s thinnest position. He was also drafted into a very rare workload. For these reasons, many will draft him first overall in Superflex rookie drafts, even if their team needs a quarterback. Heck, I tore down one SF dynasty after a championship win last year, leaving me with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, and I still may take Robinson at 1.01. Why? Because running backs like Bijan are a rare find, while next year’s QB class looks even better than this one.

Round 1

An Almost Stock Start:  As I addressed in our introduction, this mock starts pretty traditionally, except for Bijan at the top. I’ve already explained the reasons for that in our intro, though. So, discuss the other two players who were in consideration for the top pick in this mock draft.

Anthony Richardson's upside makes him the easy first quarterback off the board for most, but there’s a good argument for Bryce Young to get that spot. Remember that many preferred Trey Lance over Trevor Lawrence two years ago for the same reasons they prefer Richardson here. However, Lawrence was the safer choice in 2021, and he’s been the better one so far. Teams that can afford to take a risk on Richardson should do so, but if you must hit on your QB pick this year and can’t afford the risk, Young is your guy.

My Bias Bleeds Through: Up through pick 1.07, this mock is relatively standard. However, who goes at pick 1.08 has been a toss-up in rookie drafts so far. Quentin Johnston is a popular pick in this spot, but Jonathan Mingo and Zay Flowers have also been regularly chosen. It’s truly where most Superflex rookie drafts begin.

With 1.08 up for debate, I am going to insert my personal preference into this pick. Those who have followed my off-season work know that I’ve been higher on  Dalton Kincaid than most in the fantasy realm. I had the Utah product as my top rookie tight end long before he landed in Buffalo, despite many having Michael Mayer in that spot. While the presence of Dawson Knox is concerning for Kincaid’s early playing time, the rookie should see plenty of time in the slot, where Josh Allen looks often.

Could Will Levis Fall in Dynasty Drafts, Too?:  On draft night, Will Levis suffered the same tumble Aaron Rodgers and Geno Smith did before him. We all experienced this with him, as the cameras dug into his every orifice each time his name wasn’t called. Despite a massive arm and very good 2021 game tape, the Kentucky hurler was clearly not valued by NFL teams like he was by pundits. Will fantasy managers feel the same?

Right now, Levis is slated to be Ryan Tannehill’s backup for at least this year. That fact alone will drive down his stock with fantasy managers who need an immediate starter. There’s also the concern that he’s raw and turnover-prone, which could spook as many fantasy managers as it did NFL GMs. For those reasons, expect Levis to be available with picks 1.11 or 1.12 in many Superflex drafts. That would perfectly position your league champion to stash the talented passer and flip him for gold in a year or two.

Round 2

My Rookie Sleeper of the Year: Two years ago, I told you Elijah Mitchell was the best sleeper in his class. His running style fit what the 49ers needed far more than Trey Sermon, and he was tremendous value in the 3^rd round. Last year, I took flak from many for saying Dameon Pierce should be a late first-round pick in rookie drafts, thanks to his talent and landing spot. This year, my sleeper of the year is Chase Brown.

The Bengals could have the highest-scoring offense in the NFL next year, and they regularly involve their running backs in the passing game. Meanwhile, they let Samaje Perine walk in free agency, and Joe Mixon brings a high cap figure and off-field issues along with his inconsistent production. The worst-case scenario for Brown is that he takes Perine's old role while adding speed and elusiveness. The best case is that the Bengals save $10 million in cap space by moving Mixon, and Brown inherits a really attractive starting job.

High Hopes for Hendon Hooker: The rookie passer out of Tennessee is unlikely to see a snap this year, and the odds of him unseating Jared Goff by 2024 are iffy. He’s also an older prospect at age 25, with injury and consistency concerns. However, this is a Superflex mock in a very thin rookie class, so expect Hooker to go higher than someone in his position usually would.

The former Volunteer can add value with his legs and he is more dynamic than Goff. So, there is a chance he becomes a starter next year, and it’s likely he will get a shot to start by 2025 at the latest. If Hooker ends up being the Lions’ guy, he will have immense upside playing with a strong offensive line, two talented receivers, and a dynamic running back. If Hooker isn’t the guy for Detroit long-term, he should at least be a viable backup. Either way, he offers better value than the receivers being over-drafted in the second round this year.

Round 3

Tanking Round Three:  Tank Dell is one of the most diminutive receivers in recent memory, but he’s tough, creative, and explosive. He was drafted by a Texans team whose receiver room is completely unsettled. While we all hope John Metchie can recover and become a productive pro, Houston’s decision to use a valuable pick on another slot receiver (Dell) doesn’t bode well for Metchie’s availability. In truth, Dell was the better prospect compared to Metchie anyway.

Another Tank joins Mr. Dell in this mock, just two picks later. The Jaguars' staff has always favored a running back timeshare, and Tank Bigsby is better suited for a between-the-tackles role than Travis Etienne. Do not be surprised if Etienne takes on more passing-down work this year, and Bigsby sees more goal-line work. He's a valuable insurance policy on Etienne and a viable stash if you think the Jags' leading rusher from 2022 is bound to get hurt again.

Wading Through Tight End Depth: Round three could be the prime spot to nab your backup tight end this year, given that this is the deepest rookie pool at the position in recent memory. If you want to go that route, be prepared for a tough decision. There are at least four quality tight ends who could be available late in round three, and each has a unique upside and downside.

The best overall tight end available in the second half of this mock draft is Darnell Washington, who fell in the NFL Draft due to injury concerns. Now he finds himself behind the established starter Pat Freiermuth, which isn’t ideal. The best pass-catching TE in this late third-round group is Luke Musgrave, but the Packers' decision to draft him and Tucker Kraft causes opportunity concerns for both. For those reasons, don't be surprised if Luke Schoonmaker goes ahead of them all, even if he is the least gifted.

Round 4

Stashing Backup QBs: The biggest difference between Superflex and non-Suerflex drafts can be seen in the first and fourth rounds, where people tend to load up on quarterbacks. The fourth round is particularly interesting in this regard.

In most leagues, rookies like Jake Haener or Dorian Thompson-Robinson would not be rostered as they have no clear path to playing time, and their pedigree keeps expectations low even if they do play. However, people in Superflex will always be looking for the next Brock Purdy, and they tend to value backup passers more than the average fantasy manager.

With 14 quarterbacks selected in this NFL Draft, there will be plenty of late-round “Purdy-Style Flyers” for dynasty managers to choose from. Among those flyers, Haener is the best bet to become an average starter in the NFL someday. On the other hand, Thompson-Robinson is the best bet to become a fantasy fill-in if he’s forced to play early, thanks to his rushing ability and extensive starting experience.

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