Potential Buy-Low Trade Candidates for Fantasy Baseball - 2023 Exit Velocity Fallers

May 11, 2023

Eric's sneaky pickups and buy-low trade candidates for fantasy baseball. These MLB hitters have decreased exit velocity in 2023 and may be due for bounce-backs.

We're now a month into the MLB season, which means that some of these hot starts aren't just hot starts but legitimate gains and breakouts. As stats begin to stabilize, we can get a sense of which players have truly changed something about who they are as a hitter and separate them from the players who are just getting bounces to go their way.

Two weeks ago, I dove into leaders in key plate discipline metrics as those were the first to stabilize, and then last week I covered exit velocity gainers. The exit velocity on batted balls begins to stabilize after about 16 games, so we're well within the range there; however, launch angle takes a bit longer to become stable so any hard-hit stat that also factors in launch angle, like barrels, is a bit less sticky right now than just using exit velocity.

In this article, we're going to look at the 15 hitters who have seen the biggest decrease in their average exit velocity from 2022 to this year. I'll paste the whole leaderboard below and then dive into a few names underneath that I think might be sneaky pickups or players who you can buy low on based on public perception.

All of these stats are as of Tuesday, May 9

A few players I won't cover are Yordan Alvarez, Willy Adames, Luis Robert Jr., and Austin Riley. You know they're good, and their exit velocities are nothing to really worry about even with the dip from last year since they're all producing results relatively consistent with last year.

I also won't cover Jon Berti, Austin Nola, and Carlos Santana since most managers aren't really counting on them in most leagues and Berti himself is really rostered for his speed, not how hard he hits the ball. I also don't really have the space to get into Kolten Wong, but I'm out. He's producing nothing through his first 26 games and was really only an SB asset going from Milwaukee to Seattle anyways.

Jose Abreu - 1B, Houston Astros

Let's start with the most talked-about name on this list. Abreu has been a disaster in his first season with Houston, hitting .218/.265/.261 with no home runs, 14 RBI, and nine runs. Obviously, since he's on this list, his average exit velocity is plummeting. His max exit velocity is also only 111.7 mph, which would be the lowest of his career by almost 2.0 mph.

Honestly, there is very little in this profile that intrigues me, and I was one of the people before the season who thought Abreu wasn't just falling off of a cliff. Turns out, I was wrong. He's free-falling.

His O-Swing% is up almost 7%. While he's still making the same amount of contact and has just a slight 1% bump in swinging strike rate (SwStr%), the contact he is making is far inferior to what we've seen from him before.

His pull rate is at a career-low and he's seeing 61.8% fastballs, which is the most of his career. This tells me that his continued struggles with fastballs are not improving, and he's having a hard time getting around on the ball.

Being unable to punish fastballs means that he can't make pitchers pay in hitters' counts, so he gets into more pitchers' counts. His numbers against breaking and off-speed pitches are the worst it's ever been.

All of this points to a 36-year-old that simply doesn't have the bat speed to be the hitter he used to be. It honestly might not be long before you're outright cutting Abreu in 12-team leagues.

Alejandro Kirk - C, Toronto Blue Jays

Everybody thought this was the breakout season for Kirk. Gabriel Moreno was shipped off to Arizona, and it seemed like Kirk would finally get the playing time to let his plus-hit tools show. But they haven't yet shown up with Kirk hitting .244/.388/.341 with two home runs, 11 RBI, and nine runs.

Now, you're not really complaining about that from your catcher. It's not great, but he's not killing you anywhere. It's just not what people thought they were getting from Kirk.

The biggest issue for me is his passivity. His walk rate is at a career-high 17.1%, which is fueling the strong OBP, and you like seeing him cut down on his O-Swing%. However, Kirk has also cut down his overall swing rate to just 39% and has seen his called strike rate jump up by 3%. Considering he makes elite contact in the zone, I'd love to see him be more aggressive in the zone.

The other big issue is that Kirk is pounding baseballs into the ground with a 57% ground ball rate on a 0.4-degree launch angle. He also has just a 24% pull rate, so you have a hitter who is looking at too many pitches, not trying to get to his pull-side power, and hitting too many ground balls. None of that is good, but none of that is also fatal.

Kirk was trending this way a bit last year, with a lower launch angle, fly ball rate, and barrel rate. I don't love it, but I'm not out, per se. I wouldn't be actively trying to "buy low" until I see the ground ball rate and/or pull rate start to improve, but we know Kirk is a talented hitter. He just needs to adjust his approach before we see the fantasy goodness that we want.

Andres Gimenez - SS, Cleveland Guardians

Gimenez was a breakout star last year, hitting .297 with 17 home runs and 20 stolen bases, but that success has not carried over so far. The 24-year-old is batting just .214 with two home runs and eight RBI; however, he does have six stolen bases and 21 runs scored, which is helping his fantasy value.

The strikeout rates and walk rates are pretty much in line with last season, and Gimenez has the exact same launch angle with just a slightly higher ground ball rate and lower line drive rate. That's typical variance, especially this early in the season. His plate discipline metrics are also pretty similar with a slight rise in O-Swing% but also an increase in contact and a decrease in SwStr%.

He has perhaps been a bit too passive with a decrease in zone swing rate, but nothing about his profile is alarming. The only two things I can think of are that he sightly overperformed last year (he out-hit all his X-stats by a fair bit), and he's being pitched differently this year.

Even though he is seeing a similar amount of breaking balls and off-speed pitches as last year, he is hitting exceptionally worse against them. Gimenez has a .122 average against breaking balls (.165 xBA) and a .056 average against off-speed pitches (.211 xBA). In particular, he has really struggled against sliders, hitting .182 with a .364 SLG a year after hitting .341 with a .524 SLG.

So to summarize: Gimenez has similar patience at the plate and launch angle. Pulling the ball a bit less and perhaps getting into more pitchers' counts while also really struggling against the slider in particular this year. Paired with a slight overperformance from last year, it seems like we may have a .260-.270 hitter with plus speed, which is not nearly as enticing as what we thought we were getting.

He's certainly a confusing case, but what I do know is that things are not trending in the right direction for Gimenez.

Lars Nootbaar - OF, St. Louis Cardinals

Now we come to preseason darling Lars Nootbaar. You couldn't read an article before the season started without hearing that Nootbaar was going to break out. Then there was the lovable bromance between him and Shohei Ohtani during the World Baseball Classic, and it was impossible not to root for Nootbaar.

His performance this season also hasn't been bad, so it's a surprise to see him on here. He's hitting .288/.430/.425 with three home runs, 13 RBI, and four stolen bases. Given that his exit velocities and home run totals are lower than expected, I guess the big question is: will we see power growth from Nootbaar?

I'm not so sure we will.

The Cardinals have always been an organization that has preached pulled fly balls, but after 100 plate appearances into the season, Nootbaar has actually seen his pull rate drop 6% from last year and his fly ball rate plummet to 21.4%. That's SUPER low and is likely due to his 0.5-degree launch angle. However, even if you look at Statcast's rolling breakdown, the low launch angle isn't really improving.

I mean, I guess going from -3.7 degrees to 0.7 degrees is an improvement, but it's not one that really makes a fantasy difference.

Another thing I noticed was that Nootbaar is being far more selective, which is likely why he has a 20% walk rate. Yet, the downside is that he also has dropped his zone swing rate by 8% and his overall swing rate by over 4%. He's not swinging and missing more, and his called strike rate is up just 3%. By being more passive in the zone, he's likely not getting as many pitches to drive.

Considering he's also seeing more pitches in the zone this year than last year and swinging at those pitches less, we can make the case that he's being a bit too passive. However, that case only works if you want him to sell out for power. The Cardinals are clearly not complaining about his average or on-base percentage, but a .364 BABIP suggests that regression may be on the horizon.

Nootbaar had a .247 xBA last year when he hit .228 and has a .249 xBA now. Considering nothing in his profile jumps out as a hitter who has made clear gains from last year, I think we may see a batting average dip in the future and I'm not sure the power is coming. Given how crowded the St. Louis outfield is, I'm a little worried about Nootbaar's rest-of-season value.

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