FAAB Waiver Wire Bidding - Fantasy Football Pickups to Target for Week 16

December 21, 2022

Nick Mariano's fantasy football waiver wire FAAB bidding guide for Week 16 (2022). How many FAAB dollars (free agent acquisition budget) to spend on waivers.

Welcome to those of you still rocking with us as we hit those prime playoff weeks! What waiver magic can the holiday season bring for you? Fantasy football remains a war of attrition and all we can hope to do is field our best and let the chips fall where they may. Those who held onto some money will be rewarded this week.

Joining our famous waiver wire pickups list, our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, and our free new Who Should I Pickup? Waiver Wire comparison tool, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).

As a caveat, these prices do not indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable causes for a manual override. Here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 16.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew (QB, PHI) - FAAB Bid: 4-8%
1% rostered

Monday brought word that Jalen Hurts is likely missing time with a sprained shoulder, which thrusts Minshew Mania back into the spotlight against Dallas in Week 16. The Cowboys boast a stellar defense but they just got dropped by Jacksonville and the incredible talent surrounding Minshew vaults him into streamer conversations.

Not only does he have A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith on the outside, but Dallas Goedert has a good chance at returning as well. Dallas' offense is potent enough to force action and make Minshew the one to beat them, rather than allowing for a low-scoring affair run through Miles Sanders.

Brock Purdy (QB, SF) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
20% rostered

Purdy overcame his oblique issue to throw for two touchdowns in a third straight game, a third straight win, and San Francisco’s seventh consecutive victory. It was George Kittle who stepped up against a Seattle team that struggled against TEs to cover up the absence of Deebo Samuel.

Christian McCaffrey remains the focal point but Purdy has provided fringe QB1 stats in a juggernaut offense. The defense will always keep them in a prime position for control, which should occur again versus Washington and Las Vegas in the coming weeks. They’ll also tee off against Arizona in Week 18 if you play that far.

Sam Darnold (QB, CAR) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
6% rostered

This is a straightforward flowchart play as Darnold faces Detroit’s defense in Week 16. He only completed 14-of-23 pass attempts for 225 yards and a touchdown in Week 15, but Pittsburgh’s defense is a formidable foe at full strength.

Darnold’s status as a game manager within Carolina’s offense could be challenged by a playoff-caliber Lions offense that should push the pace. Let’s hope Darnold’s sneaky rushing prowess rears its head and we get a high-end QB2 streamer.

Zach Wilson (QB, NYJ) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
7% rostered

Mike White could not be medically cleared for Week 15 due to his rib injury and the Jets proceeded to lose to the Lions, but Wilson did clear 300 yards and threw for two touchdowns. It doesn't have to be pretty and Wilson is not recommended viewing for those rostering him, but NYJ's short week means he's likely in the saddle once again:

From NFL Now: The #Jets will likely start QB Zach Wilson again on Thursday, with QB Mike White (rib fractures) still not cleared for contact. pic.twitter.com/kacI6UWmN3

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 19, 2022

The optimist here will note that Garrett Wilson is such a great player that he can turn a quarterback's ~50% completion rate into dynamic performances all the same. And if we squeak in another pair of C.J. Uzomah touchdowns, then who's going to complain? You're hoping Zach Wilson got some return-to-action jitters out of his system and hits some of the easier, expected throws in Week 16.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs

Deon Jackson (RB, IND) - FAAB Bid: 50-100%
Zack Moss (RB, IND) - FAAB Bid: 50-100%
7% and 3% rostered, respectively

Jonathan Taylor suffered an ankle sprain early in Week 15 and may not return to action in a lost season. Initially, this thrust Deon Jackson back into the spotlight with a touchdown reception and 13 rushes on 55 yards, alongside a fumble lost. Zack Moss wound up with 24 carries for 81 yards as Indy failed to hold onto their lead.

On its face, Moss’ increased workload looks encouraging for his usage sans JT. But Jackson averaged over four yards per carry against Moss sitting around 3.5 YPC, and Jackson also has proven himself as a pass-catching option.

You’ll recall his 10-catch October game against Jacksonville and note he’s caught 21-of-23 targets thus far. Moss has zero catches and just one target in Indy thus far. A matchup against the Chargers in Week 16 should call for a heavy dose of Jackson’s versatility. It may be a frustrating committee, so just be sure you play to your league's scoring regarding receptions.

#Colts RB usage on Sunday
Zack Moss 67%
Deon Jackson 31%

While Jackson brings more ppr upside, Moss's workload can’t be ignored. 24 rush for 81 yds on the ground showed they leaned on him to get the running game going even those he had 3.4 YPC
Potential pick-ups if u lost JT

— LaQuan Jones (@RealDealFantasy) December 19, 2022

Royce Freeman (RB, HOU) - FAAB Bid: 20-30%
0% rostered

With Dameon Pierce done for 2022, Houston turned to Royce Freeman as their lead back as Dare Ogunbowale failed to make an impact (8-14-0 rushing, zero receiving). Rex Burkhead was relegated to spelling Freeman on passing downs, catching 2-of-4 targets for 17 yards with zero rushes.

It was Freeman with 51 rushing yards on 11 totes while adding a five-yard catch as well in a tight loss to Kansas City. Houston has now made two nailbiters out of games slated to be blowouts, though Week 16 against Tennessee is a poor matchup. The Titans are one of the five toughest matchups for opposing RBs in half-PPR, but volume is currency and Freeman has the advantage in Houston right now.

JaMycal Hasty (RB, JAX) - FAAB Bid: 1-3%
6% rostered

Hasty was thrust back into the starting lineup late on Sunday with Travis Etienne nursing an ankle injury. While ETN was able to play in overtime, those in leagues with thin waivers will want to be proactive here in case there is a setback or Etienne simply isn’t 100%. At this point, most of us are securing depth pieces and handcuffs with little time for others to emerge.

*I imagine Tyler Allgeier, Chuba Hubbard, Gus Edwards, and James Cook are rostered in most of your leagues but they’re worth a long look if still available ahead of these final weeks.*

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers

Marquise Goodwin (WR, SEA) - FAAB Bid: 10-20%
3% rostered

Goodwin had a quiet Week 15, catching 2-of-5 targets for 10 yards, but Tyler Lockett’s late injury provides at least one week of relevant opportunity. Lockett has a broken bone in his hand that requires surgery, but he may only miss one game as a result.

Of course, Lockett had seen 30 targets over the last three games, and now Goodwin steps into that starting role. It isn’t a 1:1 elevation of roles but Seattle now faces Kansas City in a game that should call for plenty of gas pedal.

Rashid Shaheed (WR, NO) - FAAB Bid: 4-8%
1% rostered

Shaheed got behind Atlanta’s defense for a 68-yard touchdown to fuel a 3-95-1 line on four targets. No Saints WR saw more than four targets, which makes Shaheed’s big-play ability even more important for maximizing looks.

Jarvis Landry was held without a catch as Shaheed has now topped 50 yards in three straight games. We could have a situation akin to Donovan Peoples-Jones’ early-season outlook emerging, with a matchup against Cleveland on tap for the Saints upcoming in Week 16.

UDFA #Saints rookie Rashid Shaheed since Week 9:

Targets: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 4
Yards: 0, 12, 8, 53, 75, and 95
Snap%: 10%, 13%, 49%, 53%, 61%, and 71%pic.twitter.com/aTdbp2Xw9p

— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) December 19, 2022

Byron Pringle (WR, CHI) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
0% rostered

The Bears’ passing attack barely registers as a light roar at this point in the season, but Pringle turned two catches into 39 yards and a touchdown in Week 15’s loss to Philadelphia. Per PFF, Pringle led the Bears’ WRs in snaps (53) and routes run (31) on Sunday.

Chicago has lost Darnell Mooney for the year and Chase Claypool is dealing with a knee injury. Equanimeous St. Brown left Week 15 early due to concussion protocol and did not return. Pringle outperformed and outworked Dante Pettis and Velus Jones Jr., which provides a desperation dart for deep-league players. Chicago faces Buffalo in Week 16 before a Detroit matchup in Week 17.

Demarcus Robinson (WR, BAL) - FAAB Bid: 2-4%
14% rostered

Robinson is a waiver play tied to the hopeful return of Lamar Jackson. If you think LJax can play against Atlanta and Pittsburgh, two bottom-10 units against opposing WRs in 2022, then Robinson’s starting role can be flexed. The results have been lukewarm, but Robinson has three straight games with five or more catches and six or more targets.

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE, TEN) - FAAB Bid: 5-10%
29% rostered

Okonkwo’s momentum continued building in Week 15, as he played on 37-of-62 snaps with 18 routes run, five targets, and a carry. He turned those six opportunities into 60 total yards against the Chargers, with eyes now on matchups against Houston and Dallas.

The problem here is hoping the Texans' magic continues and they force Tennessee to push the pace more. Alas, the Titans can likely ride Derrick Henry to victory against that subpar rush defense. And Dallas has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing TEs all year. Still, the bar at TE is low and Okonkwo has earned weekly top-16 consideration.

Juwan Johnson (TE, NO) - FAAB Bid: 5-10%
20% rostered

Johnson returned to action in Week 15 with two touchdowns, which gives him seven TDs in his last seven games. He is a capable and preferred weapon by the red zone that earned a viable six targets in Week 15, catching four for 67 yards with the two scores. He’s mobile in space and has the power and size to overwhelm defensive backs, making him a solid play despite the low passing volume in New Orleans.

Week 15 TE air yardage share leaders

35% - Juwan Johnson
34% - George Kittle
33% - Mark Andrews
25% - TJ Hockenson, Travis Kelce
22% - Austin Hooper, Eric Saubert
21% - Chig Okonkwo, Dawson Knox
17% - Daniel Bellinger, Jordan Akins
14% - Dalton Schultz

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 19, 2022

Noah Fant (TE, SEA) - FAAB Bid: 5-10%
22% rostered

Fant rebounded from a goose egg in Week 14 with a 5-32-1 line here in Week 15. The injury to Tyler Lockett may force more action toward Fant in a game against KC that should demand a high tempo and tons of passing. Let’s see if Patrick Mahomes can put Seattle in an early hole and tilt the field.

If you’re even more desperate, then please note that Will Dissly actually ran the same number of routes as Fant in Week 15. He only saw one target and is not as high on the read totem pole, but it’s still an outside opportunity!

FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense (at NYJ) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
7% rostered

The Jags just pulled off a 40-34 upset of Dallas and have thrown together back-to-back defensive efforts worth starting. They beat the Cowboys with a defensive TD alongside three sacks and two picks, while Week 14 brought four sacks and four turnovers against Tennessee.

The big news here is the matchup against the Jets, which is a lot friendlier if Zach Wilson is under center. Also, Jacksonville heads to Houston for a zesty championship-week matchup at a widely-available price.

Cleveland Browns Defense (vs. NO) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
26% rostered

Get ready for (in)action, as this game’s early total betting line is 32 points. That’s it. And Cleveland is favored by three, with an implied score around 17-14. Take the home-field advantage in what sets up as a low-scoring affair and hope the pass rush gets home. Cleveland also faces Washington in Week 17 for a solid championship matchup as well.

Los Angeles Chargers Defense (at IND) - FAAB Bid: 3-5%
24% rostered

The Chargers are coming off of their first four-sack performance since mid-October to face a reeling Colts squad. Indy just enjoyed historic embarrassment and the Chargers have held Miami to 17 points and Tennessee to 14 in the past two weeks. The Chargers draw another friendly matchup against the Rams at home in Week 17, so you can comfortably ride this out to a trophy.

Las Vegas Raiders Defense (at PIT) - FAAB Bid: 2-3%
25% rostered

The Raiders defense produced a wild walk-off winner thanks to an ill-fated lateral heave that provides momentum ahead of a Pittsburgh game on Saturday. Perhaps they get Mitch Trubisky, or maybe it’s Kenny Pickett, but the defense is playing well regardless.

Did you know the Raiders have held opponents to offensive tallies of 14 (LAC), 17 (LAR), and 18 (NE) in the last three weeks? While the (normally) conservative Patriots didn’t surrender a sack, the Raiders had 15 sacks across their previous four games. If other defenses have been scooped up, then see if the Raiders remain on the wire.

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