Finding Breakout Power Hitters Using Barrel Rates

Elliott Baas continues his analysis on barrel rates and Statcast metrics to identify home run breakout performers in 2021 fantasy baseball drafts.

In part one of this article, I explained how important Statcast is to determining surface stats and the usefulness of barrel rates. Before continuing, I would recommend checking out that article if you're interested in learning how Statcast metrics affect surface stats and player outcomes, and which Statcast metrics are the best predictors of success (hint: barrel rate is pretty darn good). If you're just looking for some players to draft and don't really care about the nuts and bolts behind it, then you're in the right place.

Now, we will dive into individual players whose barrel rates were particularly noteworthy last year as well as identifying potential power sleepers.

The best way to apply the knowledge about barrels we learned in part one is actually pretty simple. Let’s identify some players who had high barrel rates in 2020 but underperformed, or let’s find some players who had uncharacteristic drops in barrel rate but could bounce back in 2021. Had one done this same exercise in 2019, they could have stumbled upon quite a few gems. Here are some examples.

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2020 Power Breakouts

• Luke Voit had a 13.2% barrel rate in 2019 but only had a .200 ISO thanks in part to a low HR/FB ratio for his home ballpark, and oddly enough a high line drive rate (line drives are great for singles, not so much for power). He had a similar barrel rate of 13.1% in 2020, but posted a .333 ISO. Some tweaks included an uptick in average launch angle and swing percentage, but Voit carried an extremely similar hitter profile from 2019 to 2020.
• Brandon Lowe had a 16.3% barrel rate in 2019, but only posted an ISO of .243. It certainly wasn’t a bad year for Lowe in 2019, but the young second baseman increased his ISO to .285 and his OPS to .916 while maintaining a similar barrel rate of 17.5%. Lowe made even more changes that contributed to his success, such as a 9% reduction in strikeout rate, but if you followed the barrels you may have guessed more power lurked in this bat.
• Jose Abreu had a 12.6% barrel rate in 2019 but just a .219 ISO. His power exploded in 2020 as Abreu posted a career-best .300 ISO and slugged 19 home runs en route to the AL MVP award. Abreu didn’t change much from 2019 to 2020 actually. His average launch angle, average exit velocity, and strikeout rate were in line with career marks. He didn’t even show the same swing aggression patterns seen in Corey Seager and Matt Chapman. Of course, Abreu did benefit from a fortunate HR/FB ratio, but that’s to be expected in an MVP year and wasn't too far outside of expected outcomes.

Obviously, I cherry-picked some of the best outcomes for those examples, but if you used barrel rate and underperforming ISO as a basis you may have been able to analyze those players in context and identify their breakout potential ahead of the 2020 season.

Speaking of viewing players in context, I’ve pulled some 2020 examples that meet the same criteria of the players above that are worth a closer look.

Christian Yelich, OF MIL

Let’s start with one of the biggest disappointments of 2020, which is perennial MVP candidate Christian Yelich. Coming off a 44-homer, 30-steal 2019, Yelich laid an egg in the COVID-shortened 2020. His .225 ISO was his worst as a Brewer, and his .205 AVG and 30.8% strikeout rate were by far the worst of his career. But Yelich still lit up his Statcast page, posting a 12.1% barrel rate, 94 MPH average exit velocity, and a 55% hard-hit rate.

It’s hard to call anyone a value at pick 11, where Yelich is currently going, but I’d be ecstatic to get him at that price. He was still able to do everything right at the plate beside his elevated strikeout rate, but Yelich is proven enough where we can give him a mulligan for 2020. This is a potential 40-30 guy with a .296 career average going at the back end of the first or beginning of the second. Statcast loves a Christian Yelich bounce back, and I do too.

Jorge Soler, OF KC

Jorge Soler has 94 career home runs, 48 of which were hit in a breakout 2019 campaign that had him looking like one of the game's elite power hitters. Soler fell back to earth in 2020, posting a .769 OPS and .215 ISO in 174 PA. His strikeout rate also ballooned to a career-worst 34.5%. As a result, Soler’s fantasy value has taken a hit, with a current ADP of 140, around players such as Ke’Bryan Hayes, Kyle Lewis, and Ramon Laureano. Many players seem to think Soler’s 2019 was a flash in the pan, but don’t be so quick to write him off.

Soler was still a Statcast superstar in 2020, even if he wasn’t a real superstar. He posted a mammoth 18.9% barrel rate, along with a 92.5 MPH average exit velocity and 15.5-degree average launch angle. These numbers are about the same as his 2019 metrics. It’s foolish to ever project a 48-homer season, but if Soler can cut his strikeout rate just a bit he can post 35-40 home runs again. Don’t be afraid of Kaufmann Stadium either, as only 26% of his home runs over the last two seasons were classified as doubters by Statcast. Soler has prodigious power and based on what we know about the relationship between barrels and power Jorge Soler looks like a tremendous value at pick 143. I will be targeting him in every draft going forward.

Keston Hiura, 1B/2B MIL

2020 was an odd sophomore campaign for Hiura. He slugged a respectable 13 home runs but posted a disappointing .707 OPS and .198 ISO in 217 PA. It was a step back from his impressive rookie season, and the most damning mark for Hiura was a bloated 34.6% strikeout rate. Hiura also saw a significant dip in average exit velocity, going from 91.4 MPH in 2019 to a pedestrian 87.4 MPH mark in 2020. Part of Hiura’s problems came from the way pitchers approach him, as he saw 5% more breaking balls in 2020, pitches he’s struggled to make contact with at the major league level.

Admittedly, I’m less bullish on Hiura at his draft cost compared to some of the other players highlighted, but there’s still reason for optimism with Hiura. Like Corey Seager, Hiura “had it” at one point, and if he can reverse the two negative trends with his strikeout rate and average exit velocity he could be in for a big season. Hiura is a boom-bust player, but there’s a realistic scenario where he pops for a huge season at the plate. Throw in an outside shot at double-digit steals, and it’s easy to see why drafters are interested. He’s not a must draft at pick 69 in my eyes, but if he slips I’d be interested in a discount come draft day.

Max Muncy, 1B/2B/3B LAD

Two years ago Muncy came out of nowhere to post a 35-homer, .973 OPS season for the Dodgers. He used his brand of power and patience to establish himself as one of the most underrated sluggers in the majors, in my humble opinion. 2020 wasn’t as kind to Muncy, as he struggled in the regular season to a .192 AVG, .720 OPS, and .197 ISO, all career worsts since joining the Dodgers.

The Statcast numbers still shined a favorable light on Muncy, especially his 12.4% barrel rate, which was 0.4% higher than his 2019 barrel rate. Muncy’s biggest issue was his ugly 13.5% line drive rate, a near 10% dip from the prior season. Line drives don’t contribute much to power or barrel rate, but it definitely contributed to his .203 BABIP and overall decline in numbers, because the line drives were converting into an increase in groundball rate, not flyball rate. Muncy may have benefitted from the flyball revolution more than any other player, as he was on his way out of the majors before tweaking his swing. If Muncy can recalibrate there’s no reason to think he can’t recapture past success, making him an excellent value at pick 95.

Other Notables: Franmil Reyes (ADP 149), Joey Gallo (ADP 157), Gary Sanchez (ADP 164)

Identifying 2021 Sleepers

We’ve identified some higher-end rebound candidates, but let’s also try and use this knowledge to find potential deep sleepers that can provide value late in drafts if given more opportunities. Be very careful when evaluating players like this, as small sample sizes can warp metrics. I wouldn’t even look at barrel rate until the player has at least 50 batted ball events (BBE), and it becomes a lot stickier once the player has several hundred batted balls to his name. All of these players still come with the “small sample size” qualifier and should be approached with a grain of salt. That being said, here are some players you can have beyond pick 200 (including some well beyond) to target in deep leagues, or just names to stick in the back of your head for in-season hitter streaming and waiver pickups if they start producing.

Jared Walsh, 1B LAA (ADP 209)

Walsh mashed at the plate in 2020, putting up nine bombs and a .354 ISO in 108 PA. Between limited plate appearances in 2019-2020, Walsh has a 13% career barrel rate on 131 BBE along with a .467 xSLG. Much of Walsh’s success came from slashing his strikeout rate to 13.9% in 2020, an impressive number for a slugger in today’s game. Part of this came from better pitch recognition and more aggression at the plate, as Walsh increased his swing rate by 4% with only a 1% increase in chase rate. I don’t expect him to maintain his 2020 strikeout rate or outcomes by any stretch, but Walsh goes late enough drafts where he becomes a fascinating power sleeper. Hopefully, the Angels finally move Albert Pujols to a reserve role and hand the first base job to Walsh. He’s a nice CI or bench bat to target towards the end of drafts.

Edwin Rios, 1B/3B LAD (ADP 426)

Rios is another player that has pulverized the ball in his limited opportunities at the major league level. The lefty slugger has a 17.6% career barrel rate across 2019-2020, and has posted a monster .374 ISO and 12 home runs in 139 career PA. Rios would be a lot more interesting if he had a clear starting role, but unfortunately, he’s on one of the deepest teams in baseball. If by some miracle the NL announced the presence of a DH ahead of opening day Rios’s prospects would brighten, though even in his current position Rios isn’t that far away from playing time. Oft-injured Justin Turner and A.J. Pollock are atop the Dodgers’ depth chart at third base and left field respectively, and Rios can play (or more accurately, stand at) either of those spots in a pinch. They’ve got enough versatility on their roster to move pieces around as well. One last thing worth pointing out with Rios is that he only has 27 PA against lefties for his career, so his platoon splits may help raise his barrel rate because his numbers aren’t dragged down if he played against lefties regularly. Even so, if more playing time opened up for Rios in-season fantasy players should roll the dice.

Evan White, 1B SEA (ADP 464)

White’s rookie campaign was a disaster in Seattle, as the touted first-base prospect posted a pitiful 41% strikeout rate and finished well below the Mendoza line with a .166 AVG. This season may have had the Mariners regretting that $24 million dollar deal they inked with White before he took a major league field. While White struggled to hit the ball, his contact quality was superb when he did manage to hit the ball, with a 14% barrel rate and 91.7 MPH average exit velocity. White isn’t a player worth drafting outside of deep leagues or AL-only leagues, but he is a player worth watching in 2021 on the waivers. He was praised for his contact skills as a prospect, and never posted a strikeout rate above 24% in the minors, so White could figure things out in the majors. He also should have a long leash at first base as well, with Seattle having no major threats to his job on their 40-man roster.

DJ Stewart, OF BAL (ADP 607)

There’s a good chance you may have never heard of DJ Stewart, and that’s understandable as he has existed in relative obscurity rotating in-and-out of Baltimore’s lineup over the last few seasons. Stewart made some swing adjustments in 2020 and slugged seven home runs with a .261 ISO in 112 PA. He increased his barrel rate to a staggering 19.2%, which was the third-highest among all players with at least 50 BBE in 2020. He also upped his average exit velocity to 91.7 MPH and his average launch angle to 17.8 degrees. Like a lot of players who increase their barrel rate, Stewart paid for it with contact, striking out 33.9% of the time, a career-high at all levels. Stewart is a 27-year-old who’s spent the last three seasons shuttling between the majors and minors, but if Baltimore gave him an extended look he could be a solid power producer, especially if he can balance out the strikeout-power approach. A team short on major league-ready talent like Baltimore could afford to give Stewart a chance, and I’ll be watching if they do.

Conclusion

Statcast is one of the best advancements in any major sport the consumer has received in my lifetime and it has enriched our knowledge and understanding of the game immensely. However, my stubborn pea-brain made me really really need to see proof behind the data, and it looks like Statcast is the real deal, though some metrics prove more valuable to fantasy than others.

Before doing this research and writing this two-part piece, barrels were not a metric I gave enough attention when evaluating hitters. Now that we know how strong the correlation between barrel rate and power production is, it looks like one of the most important factors for judging hitters’ past, current, and future success. When you’re looking for bounce-back candidates or value picks in your draft, or trying to determine the worthiness of a player on waivers midseason, start from barrel rate and work into a larger analysis like I did with these identified sleepers and bounce back candidates to see what you’ve really got. You might be the one to draft this year’s Jose Abreu, Luke Voit, or Brandon Lowe.

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