January 23, 2018

An in-depth preview of 2018 NFL Draft rookies for the tight end position (part one). Matt Wispe's top TEs for fantasy football dynasty league rookie drafts.

Today we'll continue to evaluate the 2018 NFL draft class by taking a look at the tight end position. Typically, tight ends take a little extra time to develop into contributing members of the offense, but 2017 proved that some can make an immediate impact.

While this class has some high-caliber talent, the expectation should still be a longer development time. But that's neither here nor there. It's time to look at the prospect groups.

To see the previous iterations of this series on incoming NFL rookies, check out our analysis on quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers.

Pre-Combine TE Evaluations

Before we jump into the individual player previews, I want to preface this by emphasizing the combine process as a part of this position's evaluations. In addition to factors such as market share, age, and draft positions, several combine drills have a track record for predictiveness, including speed score and bench press. Today, I'll discuss the pre-combine aspects of a prospect evaluation, but, similar to the RB position, much of the process will be completed at the combine.

Mark Andrews, Oklahoma

Andrews has been a walking mismatch at the collegiate level. Currently the top projected TE in the class, Andrews has a chance to transition his complete skill-set to the NFL.

Andrews never put up elite receiving yardage which will hinder his evaluation slightly, but consistent usage in the redzone provides a clear indication of his potential usage in the NFL. The biggest point in his favor is his size and history of being a high caliber prospect. Not only was Andrews the consensus top TE prospect entering this season, but he was also a four-star high school prospect, albeit at the WR position.

At only 13 percent career market share, there's reason to be concerned with Andrews' usage rates at the collegiate level. It's clear that he was never the top receiving option in the Oklahoma offense, but he owned at least a 16 percent market share of the receiving TDs during each of his seasons with the team.

Despite being the clear number one TE in the class, Andrews will have some questions to answer at the combine.  There will be no questions about Andrews' size at 6-foot-6 and 253 lbs, but he will need to run a strong forty time and have a good showing on the bench press to truly cement himself atop the class. He currently projects as a first round pick and that's unlikely to change barring a disastrous performance. If that happens, Andrews rookie draft ADP will likely end up in the second round.

Mike Gesicki, Penn State

Over the next few months, Gesicki is going to be compared with the top redzone TEs and, after his final season, it's probably a deserved comparison.

Gesicki appears to be a specialist. He's a pure receiving TE and he never managed a season over 700 receiving yards. But what stands out is his nine touchdown final season. Pairing that with his size, his role could become very clear once he joins the league.

For most positions, an 11 percent career market share would look like a disaster, but for the young prospect with ideal size, it's less of a disaster because he also demonstrated an ability to score touchdowns.  For this group, Gesicki has the clear lead in final season TD share with eight percent more than the next closest.

The best-case scenario for Gesicki is that he has a strong showing at the combine, earns himself a late-first round pick, and immediately becomes a team's redzone lead. If his usage matches a guy like Cameron Brate or, ideally, Tyler Eifert, then he could become a valuable asset for years. The worst case scenario would be joining a team that selects him to primarily block. If he is a first or second round pick, Gesicki will likely be a late second round pick in rookie drafts. Situation will determine whether that's a value or a disaster.

Dallas Goedert, South Dakota St.

Goedert is becoming the darling of this TE class. Whether the comparisons are to Rob Grokowski or fellow FCS product, Adam Shaheen, Goedert is slowly working his way into the conversation for best in the class.

After back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons, it's clear to see why scouts are interested in Goedert as a receiving option. Adding in his yardage efficiency and 21 career touchdowns and there's plenty of reason to be excited about what he'll be in the NFL.

What's largely holding Goedert back is his FCS competition level and the fact that he was not a largely coveted high school prospect. Goedert received zero Division one scholarship offers and wound up walking onto the South Dakota State team. He's added a significant amount of weight since joining the team.

From a market share perspective, Goedert appears to be the most productive member of the class. And while that is a positive, there's a point of diminishing returns for a potential top prospect playing against perceived lower talent. Based on talent evaluator's film studies, Goedert has done enough to warrant day two discussions, but he'll need to prove that he's the athlete many perceive him to be. If he can add on a great combine, Goedert could be a top three TE in draft position which would likely be in the second round.

If you were in rookie drafts in 2017, you likely experienced high variability between the ADPs of smaller school prospects such as Adam Shaheen and Jonnu Smith. If there's an eager drafter, Goedert could be a late second round pick in rookie drafts, but, assuming he's a second or third round NFL draft selection, his ADP will likely wind up in the middle of the third round. He's a prospect worth paying close attention to at the combine. If he performs as expected, he might be worth a slight reach. If he under performs, let him pass on by.

Troy Fumagalli, Wisconsin

Fumagalli has been used consistently in a lower volume offense, but his draft stock is largely dependent upon his blocking capabilities.

From a fantasy perspective, Fumagalli's numbers are underwhelming, but with back-to-back seasons over 45 receptions, he performed up to the expectations for a low-volume TE. Wisconsin has long been a run first offense and with a near 2 to 1 run/pass ratio, that was definitely the case in 2017. Since I'm not a film analyst, I won't speak to Fumagalli's blocking abilities other than to say that he was consistently on the field for a run-first team and that, despite the lower receiving volume, Fumagalli is projected to be selected in the top 3 rounds.

Driving home the lower pass volume is his final season market share and career market share of receiving yards. His 16 percent is on par with everyone but Goedert, in this group, and despite only managing 547 yards, he was responsible for 20 percent of the team's passing yardage. None of his numbers stand out but from a market share perspective, he's near the top of the class.

Since Fumagalli is considered a strong blocking TE prospect, his draft hopes will be tied to drills and workouts to show the necessary speed and strength to earn a spot on the field. Blocking TEs aren't super valuable assets, so Fumagalli's dynasty value will be largely tied to the offense he joins and where he's ultimately selected. If he's a second round pick to an offense without a clear receiving TE, he'll be worth a fourth round pick in rookie drafts. If his draft position falls to day three, he's probably a complete pass in rookie drafts.

Hayden Hurst, South Carolina

As a former baseball draft pick, Hurst is an older prospect that has a large range of draft position outcomes. If he performs well at the combine, he has a chance to become a day two selection.

At a glance, Hurst's receiving numbers don't jump off the screen. Failing to eclipse 650 yards or 3 TDs in a season would be a massive concern in most cases, but he's at a program that historically never uses the TE in the passing game. His 48 reception sophomore season set the South Carolina record for TE receptions. While there's still concern about his capabilities as a consistent receiving option, he can help alleviate them by performing well in workouts and drills.

Hurst is an old prospect. He'll turn 25 during his rookie season and since age is a factor is TE evaluations, that will likely hinder his draft ceiling, but he can put aside that criticism by running well. Taking a look from a positive perspective, Hurst was clearly held back by a low-volume passing offense. His 1281 career yards represents 16 percent of the team's 8058 yards from 2015 to 2017. Over the same stretch, all four of the other prospects' teams passed for more.

Hurst probably owns little to no fantasy value in 12-team or smaller dynasty leagues unless he substantially increases his draft stock. In a TE-premium league, he might be worth a flier in the fourth round if he's a top three round selection in the draft. It's unlikely he's provide significant production in his first season, but he should have a secure place on an NFL roster and then all he needs is a chance.

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