RADIO
The Green Bay Packers, along with a handful of other teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers, have consistently been front and center in the fantasy universe for the past eight or nine years. They have provided a slew of high producing fantasy options at multiple positions.
2017 projects to be no different, but turnover at many different positions has created more uncertainty than has existed in the past. One thing is for certain - the Packers still have one of the best quarterbacks in the game and will put up plenty of points on the scoreboard.
Here's a look at what the Green Bay Packers' skill position players will offer fantasy football owners in 2017:
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Green Bay Packers 2017 Outlook
Offseason Moves
Notable Acquisitions: RB Jamaal Williams, RB Aaron Jones, WR DeAngelo Yancey, TE Martellus Bennett
Notable Departures: RB Eddie Lacy, RB James Starks, TE Jared Cook
Quarterback
There may not be a safer bet in fantasy football than Green Bay’s starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He has either been the top-scoring quarterback or a close second in seven of the past nine years. This includes last year when he went on a late season run that catapulted him to the top of quarterback scoring list. With much of the same offense around him, he is poised to continue his production and is the top ranked quarterback in fantasy for most experts.
How Rodgers is able to consistently put up points is pretty obvious. He has as much or more arm talent than anyone in the league. His mobility and ability to make throws unbalanced throws on the run allow him to extend plays, usually leading to deep passes downfield. What is more subtle is what can slow Rodgers down. Green Bay’s offense provides little to no help to its receivers. It relies on its receivers being able to beat a man one-on-one in order to get open. When they struggle to do so, something that has happened a lot the past two years, Rodgers is stuck with no one to throw to. Opposing defenses just jam players at the line, only rush three to four men and force Rodgers to dance in the pocket for seven seconds until a receiver can create an inch of separation, giving Rodgers an incredibly tight window he needs to fit the ball into. It’s a structural defect of Green Bay’s offense that they have done nothing to address. Rodgers has been able to overcome it consistently, but if you wanted to identify a worst case scenario, it starts there.
Despite all the gloom and doom of the last paragraph, Rodgers is pretty likely to have a huge year. Depending on how you calculate a player’s value, Rodgers is usually worth a second to first round pick. However the thing to keep in mind is upside. While Rodgers is safe, his ceiling is much lower than a top performing running back or wide receiver. You should be giving yourself as many chances as getting one of those players as possible. Since quarterbacks tend to go later anyways, you should hold out on grabbing Rodgers until the third round. Waiting to grab a quarterback until later in the draft has become very popular as the opportunity cost of not drafting skill position player can be very large. The value that Rodgers provides is far greater than that opportunity cost come the third or fourth round.
Running Back
Ty Montgomery is one of the riskier options in fantasy. He started last year as a wide receiver but converted to running back after injuries decimated Green Bay’s more conventional options. The shift shouldn’t have been much of a surprise. Montgomery played running back until high school, when he switched because his school’s spread offense scheme didn’t utilize running backs. When he returned to running back last year he had some big games and was successful enough that Green Bay was comfortable letting go of Eddie Lacy and going into 2017 with Montgomery as their starter. Montgomery is 6’0” and about 225 pounds, so he has more than enough size to play the position. He is a runner who is above average in every skill you’d want from a running back. His ability as a receiver is frequently overstated. Once he became the starting running back in Week 7, he averaged only three receptions for 25 yards a game. His value will come as a runner. With a full season of preparation at the position, Montgomery could easily be a top ten running back. The small sample size leaves a lot of uncertainty which explains why he is going in the third to fourth round. He is more likely than not to repeat his performance from last year, so don’t feel nervous grabbing him in the third round and counting on him as a RB2.
The biggest wrinkle in evaluating Montgomery is rookie fourth round pick Jamaal Williams. Green Bay drafted three running backs this year, but the only one with any real shot at playing time is Williams. He profiles as more of a third down back and is likely to spell Montgomery in spurts. His value as a handcuff is limited as Green Bay would likely lean heavily on a committee if Montgomery were hurt. Williams should be considered a late round flyer. Keep an eye on him in the preseason, as things could change quickly if he does well.
Wide Receiver
Jordy Nelson was the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year in 2016. He returned from an ACL injury that sidelined him for all of 2015. Over the course of 16 games, Nelson was fantasy’s second highest scoring wide receiver with 1,257 yards and 14 touchdowns. Despite how great that may seem, there are a lot of red flags. In other recent years, that stat line would be good for about the seventh or eighth highest scoring wide receiver but 2016 was a down year for wide receivers. Nelson also relied heavily on red zone touchdowns, something that Nelson has never shown an innate predilection for. With the addition of Martellus Bennett, his red zone targets are probably going to decrease. Prior to the ACL injury, Nelson had the top end speed to beat corners deep. He could turn corners around and beat them with his patented back shoulder catch. However, he clearly lost a step and is no longer a deep threat. Cornerbacks now have no fear of pressing him and playing him aggressively at the line, making short and intermediate routes far more difficult for him. Nelson was frequently shut down by larger physical cornerbacks last year. He is Rodgers’ most trusted receiver and is going to get a lot of targets, but his late first round ADP is a bit much. You should feel good about passing on Nelson unless he falls to you late in the second round.
Surprisingly enough, Davante Adams was fantasy’s seventh highest scoring wide receiver last year. He disappointed in 2015 when he stepped into a starting role with Jordy Nelson hurt. His biggest problem in 2015 was dropped passes. He overcame his case of the yips in 2016 and had a solid year as a boom or bust type player. He comes into 2017 as Green Bay’s No. 2 receiver and the only one on the team who can consistently beat press coverage. Adams doesn’t possess elite athleticism, but he has good size and knows how to use it. He also has a knack for picking up yards after the catch. Despite how well he did last year, he is being drafted as the 24th WR according to FantasyPros. Part of that is that his performance last year looked good compared to a relatively poor showings from other wide receivers. Another part of that is an unfounded fear that his bout with drops will return. He doesn’t have the potential to become an elite wide receiver option, but he will have solid production. You should feel comfortable drafting him slightly ahead of his ADP in the third round.
Randall Cobb stands seemingly as a man diminished. After being a solid WR1 in 2014, he fell off the map in 2015 and is nowhere to be found. The reason has to do with how NFL defenses have evolved over time. Four to five years ago, NFL defenses ran primarily out of base 4-3 or 3-4 sets. They invested very little into their nickel cornerbacks and tended to have slower, run stuffing linebackers and strong safeties. In that environment, simply lining up Cobb in the slot or in the backfield created a matchup that Cobb could exploit. Nowadays, NFL defenses run out of the nickel more frequently and have much quicker linebackers and safeties. Cobb has great hands and is explosive and dangerous after the catch, but he has trouble creating separation and is hopeless against press coverage. Since Green Bay’s scheme gives him very little help, he hasn’t been able to see an ounce of daylight the past two years. This probably won’t change unless Green Bay can establish a dominant running game or add a deep threat to keep defenses honest. Both seem unlikely, so Cobb should be viewed as a late round flyer and certainly not someone you can rely on.
Tight End
Martellus Bennett replaces Jared Cook as the top tight end for Green Bay in 2017. While Bennett doesn’t possess the top end speed of Cook, he is much better in shorter routes. He is also a much more capable red zone threat. Last year Cook only scored only one touchdown. The taller and higher jumping Bennett should get more targets in the red zone. Additionally Bennett is a much better blocker than Cook, so he should see more time on the field. Bennett is going late compared to other tight ends, which is a correct valuation. Even in the heyday of Jermichael Finley, Green Bay tight ends have never racked up that many stats. Bennett also has a tendency to fade down the stretch. If you draft Bennett you should be streaming tight ends. If he starts off hot, don’t be afraid to deal him.
Kicker
Since leading the NFL in points in 2007, Mason Crosby has varied between being an average kicker to being unrosterable. He shouldn’t be one of the first kickers taken off the board, but if you are one of the last in your league to grab a kicker, he can serve as a relatively risk-free pick.
Defense
Green Bay’s defense actually has a lot of great players as they have had for several years. Despite this, they rarely reach fantasy relevance. The reason is defensive coordinator Dom Capers and his outdated defensive scheme. Green Bay is an interesting streaming option because Capers usually confuses young and inexperienced quarterbacks and can force a lot of turnovers. Avoid them like the plague if they are going up against a veteran quarterback, however.
