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2016 in Review: First Base (1B) Busts

Our review of the 2016 fantasy baseball season continues with a look at some first base bust. While some of these players contributed modest home run totals, they simply couldn't bring enough value to justify their ADP.

 

First Base Busts - 2016

Mitch Moreland, Texas Rangers

When Prince Fielder was forced to prematurely end his career, Moreland's responsibilities increased. Unfortunately, his production did not. On the surface, you could point to the fact that Moreland hit just one fewer home run (22) as the previous year in practically the same amount of at-bats. His 4.5% HR% and 20.9 AB/HR could even be considered assets in deeper leagues. That's where the value ends, however. Despite playing for a top contender all season, Moreland drove in 60 runs and finished with a poor .233/.298/.422 line. His 3.37 K/BB rate was also nearly identical to the previous season, so Moreland simply made less contact on his swings.

After an encouraging 2015, Moreland was expected to at least match his .278 average with 23 home runs and 85 RBI. That would have placed him near the top 10 at the first base position. Instead, he reverted to his old form. In fact, it's eerie how similar this season compares to 2013 when Moreland was considered nothing more than a borderline corner infield option. For comparison's sake, here are his 2013 primary stats: .232 AVG, .736 OPS, 23 HR, 60 RBI, 60 R, 117 K, 45 BB in 462 AB. In 2016, he produced much of the same: .233 AVG, .720 OPS, 22 HR, 60 RBI, 49 R, 118 K, 35 BB in 460 AB. If anything, 2015 appears to be outlier season in a mostly mediocre career. It seems increasingly unlikely that the 31 year-old will bounce back or produce more than he did this year. He is still usable in deep leagues for his power, but shouldn't be counted on for much more.

Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals

On the plus side, Zimmerman played his highest game total in the past three years and logged 467 at-bats. That's where the good news ends, however, as his .218 batting average was by far the lowest of his 12-year career. Zimmerman has battled injuries over the last three seasons, making him a risky pick entering the 2016 season. It may then be more concerning that, despite playing a majority of the year, he performed so poorly.

Although he logged 81 more at-bats than last season, Zimmerman ended up with 27 fewer RBI and one less HR. Moreover, his 22.3% K% was the highest in his career and his 6.2% BB% was the lowest since his rookie year. He is just 32 years old, so it's too early to write Zimmerman off completely. You could point to his .248 BABIP and argue that he is due for regression at least somewhat closer to his .308 career mark. Still, Zimmerman is trending downward and is not worth anything more than a late round pick. He can't be counted on to hold down a starting spot on fantasy rosters.

Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees

Perhaps it shouldn't be surprising that a 36 year-old slugger suddenly declined, but few players have fallen so hard so fast (Bret Boone comes to mind). Remember that in 2015, Tex jacked 31 HR, 79 RBI and made the third All-Star appearance of his career. His power was invisible from the start, as he notched just three homers in April and May combined and only two more in June. In 2015, his 12.6 AB/HR rate was the best of his career, ahead of his typical 17.0 AB/HR mark. That number fell all the way to 25.8 AB/HR in 2016. The main problem is that his HR/FB% fell to 10.6%, rendering a once elite power hitter useless.

Tex likely wasn't expected to be a starting first baseman in most fantasy leagues, but he was universally drafted as a CI or Util player as a reliable power source. While 15 HR and 44 RBI in 387 at-bats are nothing to sneeze at, his lowly averages were an albatross around the collective neck of fantasy teams. He ended the season with a triple slash line of .204/.292/.362, all career worsts if you exclude the 2013 season in which he only made 63 plate appearances. His abrupt retirement was in the best interest of the rebuilding Yankees and Teixeira personally, but it's never a good feeling to see a player you drafted call it quits mid-season.

This serves as a reminder that selecting an aging star is often a double-edged sword. If you chose to ignore a player like Teixeira in 2015, you passed up a great late-round value who still appeared to have plenty left in the tank. If you took a chance on that same player in 2016, you were able to squeeze two good months of power out of him while taking a serious hit to other categories before ultimately having to drop him. Fantasy owners won't need to make any decisions about Tex now that he's out of the picture, but when considering a veteran like Carlos Beltran or Matt Holliday in next year's draft, be careful about overpaying for past success.

 




REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Josh Hader

Set to Return from Injured List on Tuesday
Chris Brazzell II

a Year 1 Breakout Candidate in Carolina?
Ja'Kobi Lane

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Josh Jacobs

Back at Practice on Tuesday
Max Klare

Crowded Tight End Room Impacting Max Klare's Dynasty Stock?
Romeo Doubs

Still a Solid Dynasty Option in New England?
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SEC Coach Calls Buster Faulkner a "Home-Run Hire"
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Auburn a Sleeper in the SEC Under Alex Golesh?
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Noah Fifita Primed for Strong 2026 Campaign
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Oregon Assistant Coach Charged with DUII, Reckless Driving
Makai Lemon

Set for Major Role in Debut Season?
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Tight End Nick Pollack Commits to Clemson
Drake Maye

Does Latest Addition Put Drake Maye Among the Upper Echelon of Fantasy Elite?
Jalen Hurts

Could Face Regression After Loss of Top Pass Catcher
DeVonta Smith

Poised for WR1 Role in the Aftermath of Trade?
Daniel Jones

Participating in 7-on-7s
Akshay Bhatia

Needs the Driver to be True in Ohio
Aaron Rai

Primed to take on the Memorial Tournament
J.J. Spaun

Rebounded at Charles Schwab Challenge
Xander Schauffele

One to Watch This Week in Ohio
Hideki Matsuyama

Putter Could be Vital at the Memorial
Nicolai Hojgaard

Rust Concerns at Muirfield Village
Ryan Gerard

Surfaces After Long Cold Stretch with Top 10 Result
Wyndham Clark

May Struggle at the Memorial Tournament
Elly De La Cruz

to Miss 2-4 Weeks of Action
Chase Burns

is Scratched Due to Illness
A.J. Brown

Traded to Patriots in Blockbuster Deal
Deiveson Figueiredo

Suffers Second-Round Submission Loss
Song Yadong

Gets Second-Round Submission Win
Russell Wilson

Taking a Job with CBS for 2026 Season
JuJu Smith-Schuster

Giants Adding JuJu Smith-Schuster on a One-Year Deal
Zhang Mingyang

Suffers Back-To-Back Losses
Alonzo Menifield

Gets Back In The Win Column
Braxton Berrios

New York Giants Agree to One-Year Deal with Braxton Berrios
Odell Beckham Jr.

Signing with Giants
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Myles Garrett

and Jared Verse Swap Teams in Blockbuster Deal
Sergei Pavlovich

Scores First-Round Knockout Win
Cameron Smotherman

Suffers Third Loss In A Row
Edwin Arroyo

Reds Promote Top Infield Prospect Edwin Arroyo, Viewed as Priority Pick Up Ahead of MLB Debut
Kai Asakura

Earns His First UFC Win
Elly De La Cruz

Placed on IL with Right Hamstring Tightness
Mason Taylor

Dynasty Value Takes a Hit for Now
Denny Hamlin

Earns the first Nashville Cup Series Victory of his Career on Sunday
Zachariah Branch

a Steal in the Second Round of Rookie Drafts?
Christopher Bell

Finishes as the Runner-Up at Nashville
Chase Briscoe

Earns First Career Podium Finish at Nashville
Ryan Blaney

Scores A Solid Top-10 Finish at Nashville
Eli Stowers

Worth Targeting Now Before Eventual Breakout?
Kyle Larson

Top-10 Streak at Nashville Ends after Late Flat Tire Spin
Germie Bernard

Expected to Require Some Patience in Dynasty Leagues
Denzel Boston

a First-Round Target in Dynasty Rookie Drafts
Elly De La Cruz

Exits with Hamstring Tightness
Tyler Reddick

Is One of the Top Favorites to Win at Nashville
Kyle Larson

May Continue his Top-10 Consistency at Nashville this week
Christopher Bell

Is One of the Top Competitors for the Win at Nashville
Chase Briscoe

Is A Must Start for Nashville DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

has Plenty of Upside for Nashville DFS Lineups
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Carson Hocevar

Is Likely to have Another Solid Result at Nashville
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Should Fantasy Players Roster Bubba Wallace at Nashville?
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Is A Decent All-Around DFS Option for Nashville Lineups
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Ryan Blaney

Is a DFS Tournament Option at Nashville
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Don't Overlook Ty Gibbs at Nashville
Joey Logano

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Ross Chastain

Needs a Good Run at Nashville
Chet Holmgren

Fails to Step Up in the Season Finale
Cason Wallace

Ends Postseason with Strong Showing
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Caps MVP Season with Game 7 Exit
Stephon Castle

Continues Postseason Run with 16 Points
Julian Champagnie

Shines in Series-Clinching Win
De'Aaron Fox

Provides Secondary Punch in Game 7 Triumph
Victor Wembanyama

Earns Conference Finals MVP in Spurs' Game 7 Win
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Warriors Prioritize Depth Around Returning Steve Kerr
Donovan Mitchell

Remains Cleveland's Top Priority
Adou Thiero

Remains a Lakers Development Project
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76ers Hire Mike Gansey as President of Basketball Operations
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Chicago Bulls Explore Kevin Young as Coaching Candidate
Kyrie Irving

Reports He's Nearing Full Strength in ACL Recovery
Lane Hutson

Posts a Power-Play Assist in Game 5 Loss
Cole Caufield

Nets a Power-Play Goal in Season-Ending Loss
Seth Jarvis

Closes Out East Finals With Multi-Point Game
Logan Stankoven

Notches Three Points in Big Game 5 Win
Taylor Hall

Racks Up Three Points in Series-Clinching Win
Frederik Andersen

Remains Stellar as Hurricanes Clinch Finals Berth
Jacob Gonzalez

is Heading to the Big Leagues
Munetaka Murakami

Exits with Hamstring Tightness
Mitchell Robinson

Plans to Play in Game 1 After Finger Surgery
Ajay Mitchell

Ruled Out for Game 7
Jalen Williams

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Magic Finalizing Hire of Sean Sweeney as Head Coach
Eury Pérez

Eury Perez is Placed on 15-Day Injured List
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Set For UFC Macau Co-Main Event
Tallison Teixeira

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Sergei Pavlovich

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Cameron Smotherman

Looks To Bounce Back
Kai Asakura

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
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Faizon Brandon In Position to Start Week 1
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Dane Weber Commits to Cal
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Joey McGuire Attempts to Add Texas to Schedule
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Mike Leach on 2027 College Football Hall of Fame Ballot
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Maryland, Baylor Schedule Home-and-Home
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Taron Dickens Decommits From North Carolina
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Limited in Game 6 Return
Jared McCain

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

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De'Aaron Fox

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MLB Proposes Hard Salary Cap as Part of Next CBA
Kenley Jansen

Tigers Place Kenley Jansen on Injured List With Pelvic Inflammation
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Heading to Injured List With Hamstring Strain
MON

Lane Hutson Struggles in Game 4 Loss
CAR

Logan Stankoven Nets Eighth Postseason Goal
CAR

Sebastian Aho Pots Game-Winner on Power Play
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Tallies Two Helpers in Impressive Road Win
CAR

Shayne Gostisbehere Records Two Assists in Game 4 Win
CAR

Frederik Andersen Establishes Hurricanes New Postseason Shutout Record
Yordan Alvarez

Continues Homer Barrage With Two More Long Balls on Wednesday
Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sanchez Makes History With Seven More Shutout Innings Against Padres
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Lifted From Wednesday's Game Early With Hamstring Strain
Kenley Jansen

Exits Relief Appearance on Wednesday With Groin Injury
RANKINGS
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RANKINGS

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