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John Johnson, the master of bold predictions for RotoBaller, gives his 10 boldest fantasy football predictions in this way-too-early 2025 NFL analysis.
It's always fun to make bold predictions. Unfortunately, sometimes, articles titled "Things That Obviously Won't Happen, And Additionally Takes That Aren't Hot Takes Being Played Off As Hot Takes" are instead given titles related to bold predictions.
I don't plan on doing that here. Instead, I'll cover things that are more grounded in reality yet regarded as hot takes despite a lot of evidence to the contrary. Every season, "hot takes" made before the year starts, with plenty of reasonable facts to back them up, are regarded as insane things to say, when they just aren't.
There are plenty of recent examples, like insisting that Las Vegas Raiders running back Zamir White was going to bust or that RB Bucky Irving could be a league-winner after just a few weeks of games before he started going off. Yet many "crazy ideas" become reality quickly in the NFL. It's my job to try to help you win your fantasy leagues, and I can't do that if I just fall in line with consensus takes on everyone. That would be a complete waste of time. So let's dive in.
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1. Rookie Consensus Rankings Will Be Wrong Yet Again
Last season my favorite picks for rookie league-winners were Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving and Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. I know I didn't say in the article "These guys are league-winners", because unfortunately, at that time, I was stuck in the same mindset that I needed to see more from players in the NFL before I could judge how good they were.
Damar Hamlin gets his first career INT and it happens on Monday Night Football.
AWESOME. pic.twitter.com/lwzMOkRk5S
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) September 24, 2024
That ended up being a bad take. Luckily, I drafted Thomas and Irving in 100 percent of my (paid) fantasy leagues last season after thoroughly reviewing the college tape.
My takes on them simply boiled down to this -- Thomas was underdeveloped as a route-runner, but would immediately be one of the most insanely talented athletes playing WR in the league, and the presence of Malik Nabers on the same offense hurt his efficiency stats but should be ignored.
LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr. didn’t even pickup a football until the 10th grade. Calling him a raw prospect is like saying water is wet. He just turned 21. There’s quite a ceiling here, folks. pic.twitter.com/A83wskFqe8
— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) February 19, 2024
And Irving was the most elusive running back in college in 2023, a special kind of elusive that would make him nearly impossible to tackle on a team with good run-blocking. His skillset also made him great with the ball in his hands, and he could quickly become a joker who could do anything but run-block well. And both Irving and Thomas became legitimate league-winners.
Former #Gophers RB Bucky Irving for Oregon:
🦆4 carries
🦆119 yards
🦆2 TDs
🦆3 receptions
🦆30 yardsIt’s not even halftime… 😳pic.twitter.com/6grIH2QnI6
— Tony Liebert (@TonyLiebert) September 2, 2023
So what's the lesson here? It's simple. Take some highly talented rookies, for example. Make sure they're not in the top 3 consensus rankings in their class. Assume that some of those "top-end" guys will be busts because it happens literally EVERY YEAR (see Marvin Harrison Jr.).
Then try to find the rookies that are still good players, but have doubts swirling about them. It's widely viewed as completely impossible to accurately predict which rookies will be league winners because the philosophy of rankings precludes it from happening.
Thomas was viewed as no better than the WR4-5 of his class. If you were to rank him as the No. 1, you'd have been branded as insane. But year after year, contrarian takes like these end up becoming reality.
There was "no way" you could have Thomas ranked above Harrison, Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze, and ADP reflected this because the guys ranked lower naturally will be lower in fantasy draft rankings.
2024 Pre-Combine Rookie WR Rankings In Tiers:
1A. Marvin Harrison Jr
1B. Malik Nabers
—
3. Rome Odunze
—
4A. Xavier Worthy
4B. Brian Thomas Jr
6. Troy Franklin
—
7. Javon Baker
8. Ladd McConkey
9. Adonai Mitchell
10. Keon Coleman
—
11. Roman Wilson
12. Malachi Corley
13.… pic.twitter.com/816IMu3Eqv— Snoog's Fantasy HQ (@FFSnoog) March 2, 2024
Guess what? Consensus gets it wrong every year regarding the ranking of multiple players. Just as the negative analysis of Harrison was widely ridiculed, so was a negative analysis of Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan, Texas WR Matthew Golden, and Missouri WR Luther Burden III.
Every season, fantasy managers fall in line with consensus for the most part, and let these (always wrong) rankings dictate how their fantasy football seasons go.
I'm not sure what the point is. Endless time spent reading articles, watching highlights, and debating on social media just to trust consensus again and watch a great player slip through your fingers isn't something I like to do. I personally love that people in my leagues do this, though, and also ignore my articles, because it helps me win!
Playoff football is cool and all but I really miss Brian Thomas Jr. pic.twitter.com/ZMIu1PDyzw
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) January 17, 2025
2-4. Rookies Jaylin Noel, Bhayshul Tuten, and Travis Hunter Become League-Winners
With all that in mind, I'm at the point where I simply do not care how much stamping and screaming people do telling me it's insane to rank McMillan under someone like Iowa State wide receiver Jaylin Noel. If my analysis methods led me to pick up Irving and Thomas in all my leagues and ignore Harrison, I have full confidence in them.
This year, my three biggest guys are Noel, Virginia Tech running back Bhayshul Tuten, and Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter. I'll do full prospect breakdowns later, closer to draft day, but I can provide an abbreviated analysis here. RotoBaller isn't always thrilled when my articles go over 5,000 words!
Say yes to Jaylin Noel
These feet are nice bro https://t.co/sVrBkmTIa4 pic.twitter.com/JAtBQYLqJP— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) March 13, 2025
We'll start with Noel. I liken him to a blend of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Puka Nacua. The combination of strength, elite short-area quickness, great burst out of his breaks, explosive change-of-direction, and re-acceleration is intriguing, but he also has something that I like to call the "everything" trait for a WR.
His quarterback will be able to trust him, because he plays with sky-high IQ, always seeming to get himself and his body and hands in the right position to make catches, whatever the situation.
Jaylin Noel with the phenomenal adjustment to the ball against Quincy Riley! #SeniorBowl pic.twitter.com/VMrk3bHQlM
— Travis May (@FF_TravisM) January 28, 2025
This is something that Nacua does very well. Tons of quick adjustments to body position and a deep and thorough understanding of the mechanics of making a variety of catches are important. The above clip shows a great understanding of that skill set. This was an area in which Thomas (Brian) was very underrated.
In addition, I love Noel's explosiveness in and out of his breaks. He meaningfully separates from defenders with ease. Want to know why Noel isn't more highly thought of? Reasons out of his control. Sharing the field with fellow WR Jayden Higgins, not being in a good offense, and not having a good quarterback.
We are happy about these things because it will let us draft Noel at a great value in 100 percent of our redraft leagues! Which you should do. Seriously.
Jaylin Noel's explosiveness off the line to get vertical is quite impressive. pic.twitter.com/dQP8wYDuxl
— Billy M (@BillyM_91) March 3, 2025
Moving on, Tuten is a player that I've raved about numerous times in the past. In January, I named him as my RB3 in the 2025 NFL Draft class. He's now my RB1, with some caveats. I'm focusing on Year 1 production.
I'm not super thrilled about his draft capital, and the landing spot will be important, but he has absolutely elite breakaway speed. He will terrorize NFL defenses in Year 1 if he gets the volume for it. He also is highly skilled in other areas, has underrated pass protection, can break tackles well, is good at the goal line, is highly elusive, and is a good pass-catcher.
Virginia Tech RB Bhayshul Tuten has easy speed: rare acceleration ability and a top gear that even NFL DBs will have difficulty matching.
Zone-centric teams looking for a change of pace back that can change the game with one touch should be all over him on day three. pic.twitter.com/Gzb8ckoGgT
— Derrick (@Steelers_DB) February 18, 2025
For me, he's a must-draft in all fantasy leagues at his ADP in 2025. He has monstrous league-winning potential. There aren't many negatives to his game, and you can't teach that kind of speed and acceleration. He was highly productive in college, so it's not like he's just a great athlete who can't ball. He'll immediately be one of the fastest and most explosive backs in the league when he's drafted.
And finally, Hunter has the highest ceiling of any wide receiver in this year's draft. He makes seemingly impossible plays, has elite body control and change of direction, paces his routes in a way that's nearly impossible to defend, and is fantastic after the catch.
Travis Hunter = Tempo King
He manipulates his defenders with speed transitions, tempo, and footwork.
Special talent.pic.twitter.com/uGkOR4sn49
— Snoog's Fantasy HQ (@FFSnoog) January 16, 2025
How quickly WRs can modify their speed, with just a few steps, is extremely important for creating separation. This is an oft-overlooked skill, and Hunter excels massively here. And he has almost no hip stiffness on film, affording him a huge upside. He can cover a ton of ground out of his cuts with lightning speed.
Imagine lining up as a DB and having to guard Travis Hunter… pic.twitter.com/Cg94nsumxY
— SCOUTD (@scoutdnfl) March 11, 2025
The question is really, "How much WR will Hunter play?" And the answer is that we really don't know yet. But let me present two scenarios. One: you draft Hunter, he plays a lot of WR, and his elite talent translates well as he develops. Two: you don't draft Hunter, he plays a lot of WR, and his elite talent translates well. Which one would you rather have?
Upside is what matters. The chance of that upside being reached is also important. But let's just look at the state of NFL offenses right now. A ton of teams are absolutely desperate for wide receiver talent. WR salaries are exploding as well.
Do you really think, for example, that the New England Patriots would draft him and put him at cornerback with the roster they have? Almost zero teams have enough depth and talent at receiver to be comfortable.
Travis Hunter will be a top 5 pick in April’s NFL Draft. 7 Rec, 132 yards, 3 TDs.
Oh and many say he is a better CB than WR.
pic.twitter.com/gC78VrZxST— uSTADIUM (@uSTADIUM) August 30, 2024
A team that didn't significantly utilize his strengths as a receiver, enough for him to be fantasy-relevant, would probably fire quite a few coaches for that offense. No team needs an elite CB like they need an elite WR. I'll be ignoring 100 percent of what the media says about Hunter and drafting him in all my fantasy leagues in 2025, just like with the other guys.
5. Cooper Kupp Will Finish As A WR3/WR4
There has been a ton of blowback against the idea that Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp isn't great anymore, but everything other than a few games PPR scores seems to indicate that he's mostly just not.
Over the past four seasons, his production has declined alarmingly, and despite offseason reports that he was totally back to normal and could have another huge season, it again failed to materialize.
As if his release from the Rams and the fact that he will be 32 with a long history of serious injuries weren't evidence enough, you'd think that Los Angeles, who consistently find steals in the drafts, would know how to evaluate players, especially one that's been in the building for a long, long time.
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) January 15, 2025
There's no doubt that many fantasy managers are heavily influenced by social media. And I can't do a full film breakdown here, so I can't go through every route he ran and show you that he just doesn't get open like he used to, has lost a lot of his burst, and never could rely on speed to make up for that.
But it's true. And there are plenty of stats, which many like to hand-wave away and pretend are useless, that Kupp has shown a serious and steady decline since 2021.
Cooper Kupp is turning 32 before this season, has an extensive injury history and year over year declining production.
I know people like big names, but this is not the guy I’m investing in right now. pic.twitter.com/2IeTmZhVUC
— Savage (@SavageSports_) February 4, 2025
Has he dealt with a lot of injuries? Yes. But using those to excuse his lack of production (other than in games where he gets a few busted coverages or force-fed a million targets) just isn't accurate. It also ignores that a long history of serious injuries causes players' bodies to break down sooner.
NFL players in their 30s face a constant battle to make it through the season, managing a variety of lifelong injuries, weak ligaments and joins, severe pain, and the like.
Some of Cooper Kupp's injury history:
-Groin pull
-Sprained MCL
-Torn ACL
-Knee bruise
-Low ankle sprain
-High ankle sprain
-Hamstring strain
-Low ankle sprain again
-High ankle sprain again
All in his left leg. Does no one really think that leg is cooked? pic.twitter.com/plGinwkvRD— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 14, 2025
Ever since spraining his MCL in October of 2018, returning too early (after just two games), and tearing his ACL completely, he's had consistent problems with his left leg. In an interview, former Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson recalled that one of his ankles was so compromised that he told QB Matthew Stafford not to throw him the ball when he cut a certain way.
NFL players regularly play through severe injuries, compromising their long-term health, and just keep playing until the wheels fall off. The fame, huge paychecks, lifestyle they can support, and their lifelong love for the game motivate them until their bodies just can't hold up any longer. They'd like to play their whole lives if they could, but it's just not possible.
I’ll tell you what’s not making me feel better this morning as a Kupp owner. This busted coverage in the 2nd quarter that would have gone for a 59 yard TD https://t.co/tkrrlxuqmz pic.twitter.com/4sW7UDirc1
— Parker (@ParkerLewes) December 13, 2024
But Kupp can still get open against busted coverages. There are clips of him wide open! The conversation could go on forever. Rams head coach Sean McVay knows better than us what's wrong with Kupp, and he also knows what a team with WRs Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and a non-washed Kupp would look like. That sounds like an amazing offense. I sincerely doubt he would have passed up on that chance.
6. Bucky Irving Finishes Outside The Top-10 RBs
Running backs drafted in the late rounds of the NFL Draft have a long history of quickly becoming irrelevant in fantasy football, even if their first season is insane like Irving's was. I don't think he's a bad player, quite the opposite. As you can see from the article I wrote linked in the earlier section, I like him a lot. There will be a few things working against him in 2025, though.
The first is that he is not a good pass-protector, and probably won't ever be. He's 5-foot-10 and just 194 pounds (combine weight, probably plays lighter), which doesn't help with that. If he were to be the workhorse back, the team would have to change the offense to account for that, which isn't easy. It's possible, though, as we saw with Miami Dolphins RB De'Von Achane.
Bucky Irving in his 5 games with MORE than 10 Rushing Attempts is averaging:
➖20.8 PPG
➖128.4 YPG
➖0.8 TD’sHis 17 Game Pace:
➖353.6 Fantasy Points
➖2,183 Total Yards
➖14 TD’sIrving ranks top 5 in the NFL in Yards Per Touch (6.0), Juke Rate (31.2%), & Catch Rate (95%). pic.twitter.com/bzvWmN53zH
— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) December 17, 2024
A bigger issue I have is one that really doesn't get covered much. Irving wasn't really on the radars of opposing defenses ahead of the 2024 NFL season. They were punished heavily for it. After a season's worth of ridiculous production, defenses will plan their games against Tampa Bay first and foremost by stopping Irving.
The rest of their weapons just aren't as compelling, with WR Mike Evans set to turn 32 before the season starts, and Chris Godwin coming off a serious broken ankle.
In addition, Tampa Bay didn't have a great offensive line, but the genius play-calling of former offensive coordinator Liam Coen massively boosted the production of all their players, especially the backs. Backup RB Rachaad White had a nice stretch of great production despite being pretty much trash, Irving was elite for fantasy, Godwin and Evans were great, and QB Baker Mayfield likely earned himself a fat, fat extension.
This is some FILTH from Liam Coen
Blast Motion to Kickout the Edge + Influence Wham on the Nose 🥵 pic.twitter.com/gTRLV8dYM5
— Coach Dan Casey (@CoachDanCasey) December 2, 2024
Coen took his talents to the Jacksonville Jaguars. No one is excited about RB Travis Etienne Jr. or Tank Bigsby, even though they'll be great values at their ADPs. Irving, who probably won't play more than 60 percent of snaps, has a mountain of hype underneath him. I don't know if he's worth drafting at his ADP this season, and I'll be avoiding him.
7. Rashid Shaheed Will Be The Saints WR1
This would've probably become obvious over time if he hadn't injured his meniscus in Week 6 and required season-ending surgery to address the issue, but New Orleans Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed was clearly the team's WR1 through the first six weeks of 2024.
He was the team's leader in target share, first-read target share, overall targets, receiving yards, and touchdowns in the five (full) contests he played with fellow WR Chris Olave.
Rashid Shaheed's weekly target shares: 20.8%, 26.6%, 21.7%, 30.5%, 28.1%.
Saints WR1.
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) October 8, 2024
It was obvious who quarterback Derek Carr's favorite pass-catcher was, and now the three are back together for another season. Shaheed outproduced Olave 339-275 in receiving yards, 3-1 in touchdowns, and 34-28 in targets. Olave had slightly more catches, 22-19, though that tells us little about real-life football.
Rashid Shaheed has put up a 22%+ Target Share and a 46%+ Air Yards Share in EVERY game this season
Chris Olave has 1 such game
Chris Olave also has 2 games with a Target Share below 15% AND an Air Yards Share below 12%
Shaheed > Olave rest of season, and it should be obvious
— Evan Ringler (@EvanRinglerFF) October 8, 2024
It seems like the only thing holding people back from saying Shaheed is the WR1 is the fact that Olave's been considered a big breakout candidate for a few years now. It's probably better to stick to what the evidence tells us, though. Either way, I'm not excited at all about drafting Olave at his ADP and very excited about getting Shaheed for cheap in drafts.
8. Kyren Williams Busts
I wouldn't say that Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams is a terrible player, but there are several red flags that have completely turned me off of drafting him in any leagues in 2024. The first is that his great efficiency in 2023 was a fluke, and he was carried by the elite blocking from his offensive line and the similarly elite run schemes from his head coach, Sean McVay.
This has gotten a ton of blowback on social media, but the statistics and highlight reels tell us it's true. It's easy for many fantasy football managers to become enamored with players who consistently score a lot of fantasy points and win them any of their fantasy leagues, sure.
But Williams' 2023 highlight reel was basically a million plays of him having nothing but green grass in front of him, and breaking a ton of bad arm-tackle attempts from mostly-blocked defenders anyway.
Kyren Williams averaged 5.0 yards per carry and 3.5 yards before contact per attempt (most in the league for anyone with 120+ carries) in 2024. Just 2.1 YBCon/Att and 4.1 YPC in 2024. Without elite run blocking his efficiency nosedived pic.twitter.com/P9WgDAQKpT
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 14, 2025
Without and elite offensive line blocking for him, he needed elite volume to make up for it in fantasy, and had to hog nearly all the goal-line attempts. If he doesn't get a ludicrous workload, I have a hard time believing he won't be a fantasy football bust. I'm not sure how long he'll continue to be force-fed ludicrous 30-touch games for. I have suspicions that he'll get less in 2025.
He had more rushes per game (19.75) than any other RB in the league aside from Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley. I suspect the Rams will be more pass-happy this year. Last season, both Kupp and Nacua were injured for long stretches and Kupp's decline (described above) was apparent. Now, the team has a major upgrade with Nacua and Adams likely to be WR1A/WR1B. I'm convinced they'll pass the ball more.
KYREN WILLIAMS FUMBLES IT AND EAGLES ARE SETUP 1ST & GOAL 😱
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/WeWWNOO5Tg— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 19, 2025
The third problem I have with Williams is his proclivity for fumbles. He's been the most fumble-prone RB in the NFL over the last two seasons, and the loss in the playoffs to the Eagles can be directly attributed to him fumbling the ball (and game) away. He's put the ball on the ground seven times in the last two regular seasons and another one time in three playoff games.
I'm not the biggest fan of Rams backup RB Blake Corum, but I don't see what Williams does at an elite level other than get a lot of volume. He also was regarded as too injury-prone after the 2023 season, yet after a full healthy season, the narrative flipped.
It's probably somewhere in the middle. And I don't know if it's a good idea to keep giving him a billion carries when he's inefficient. McVay would be better suited to see what Corum can do after a year of development and pass the ball more anyway.
9. Luther Burden III Busts Massively In Rookie Year
This is a bit more for the dynasty fantasy football crowd than it is for the redraft guys, but it's still pretty important. Let's start with Burden. He will not be able to separate from coverage at the next level. He already struggled with it in college, and he's nowhere near developed enough to get where he needs to be, even if he makes significant strides in his route-running. It's just terrible.
His route tree is virtually non-existent by NFL WR standards, for starters. He runs slot fades, out and in routes, and others that don't require quick one-step changes in direction. It's not likely to work at the next level, as receivers need to run a variety of routes well or be insanely athletic to make up for it (like DK Metcalf, for example).
On film, his separation skills are pathetic. Against tight coverage there are very few routes he can separate on (out routes with outside leverage and slot fades, basically). You can't win at the next level on contested catches and a million designed touches, because you just won't get those unless you're an elite, elite athlete. Burden isn't. He's good after the catch, but that isn't enough on its own.
10. Tetairoa McMillan Finishes Outside The Top 3 Rookie WRs In Year 1
McMillan is widely viewed as the consensus WR1 of this class, often drawing comparisons to current NFL WRs Mike Evans and Drake London. McMillan is nowhere near those guys in skill level. Evans, for one, is a far better route-runner and elite separator in addition to being tall and physical, and much stronger, than McMillan. London is also much more skilled, utilizing a variety of moves to separate that T-Mac can't pull off.
This is exactly why I don’t see the comparison between McMillan & London.
London’s ability to oscillate tempo & win the down with variation is upper tier for “big” receivers. https://t.co/saAi0EHAK7
— AngeloFF (@angelo_fantasy) March 8, 2025
McMillan is 6-foot-5 but plays like a smaller receiver, not able to fight through tough contact and make catches. He's not explosive out of his breaks, isn't consistent, often plays with poor effort, and isn't very strong. It worked fine against a ton of defensive backs that won't sniff an NFL field in the Big 12 though. And on routes where he wasn't covered.
📼TAPE TIME📼
WR Tetairoa McMillan
Arizona❌THE BAD❌#scouting #NFLDraft #Arizona #DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/RsOK2SC6vY
— Mike Poland (@kenfigkowboy) January 27, 2025
It's hard to get good separation data from college, and in the NFL as well. It's not something you can easily quantify, and methods for measuring it using film are prone to plenty of errors. I'd argue that he is not a good, consistent separator because too many of his targets are contested. The defensive back usually having a chance to fight for the INT or incompletion isn't a good thing.
Data investigation thread on contested targets 🧵
After discovering an unusually and concerningly high contested target percentage for Tet Mcmillan, I began thinking on the metric, and whether it matters...
We know uncontested targets are good, though ADOT and scheme plays a…
— Dynasty Zoltan (@DynastyZoltanFF) December 7, 2024
He's fine, but not an elite prospect like he's being made out to be. His height is the major driving factor here, as everything he does that's just alright is put on a massive pedestal because he's very tall. Not so for the unfortunate 6-foot-4 guys like Jayden Higgins, though one inch doesn't make that much of a difference.
But the T-Mac/London and T-Mac/Evans comparisons will persist because some people want them to be true. They're not very close. I wouldn't be surprised if Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel, Tez Johnson, Travis Hunter, and Tre Harris all finish with more fantasy points than McMillan this season.
Of course, if T-Mac goes to an ideal situation and gets force-fed targets, he should be fine, but that's a big "if".
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