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Jackson's 2026 college football outlook and team fallers. 10 teams who will win fewer games next season, including Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, and more.
The dust has settled on the 2025-26 college football season after Indiana's historic run to the College Football Playoff National Championship. We're a long way from the 2026-27 campaign, but we'll never stop talking college football! Each offseason gives programs the chance to reset and improve on last year's efforts, but obviously, not every team will win more games than last season.
In this article, we'll dive into 10 teams that will win fewer games in 2026 compared to last season. Of course, there will be hyped-up teams who fall flat. Who saw Clemson, LSU, and Penn State barely being bowl-eligible this time last year? No one. But we'll cover more obvious regression candidates in this piece.
This doesn't necessarily mean a team will be significantly worse, but strength of schedule, roster, or coaching changes will likely lead them to drop a few more contests next season. Each team will have a confidence rating listed, ranging from most confident (10) to least confident (one) that a team will win fewer games. Let's dive in!
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
2025 Record: 9-4
Confidence Rating: 7
Brent Key has done a great job with the Georgia Tech program, posting winning records in each of the last three seasons. We don't expect the Yellow Jackets to fall off a cliff, but regression could be ahead with the departure of experienced quarterback Haynes King.
Georgia Tech draws Tennessee and Georgia in non-conference play, and its lack of experience at QB could be problematic. Alberto Mendoza is likely in line to start for the Jackets.
Indiana Hoosiers
2025 Record: 16-0
Confidence Rating: 9
Through two seasons with Curt Cignetti, Indiana has lost just two games. Both came in 2024 against the two CFP National Championship participants. Cignetti has earned the benefit of the doubt, and the Hoosiers should be expected to be in the College Football Playoffs. But putting two 16-0 seasons together back-to-back should be an impossible feat.
For the first time in 132 YEARS 🤯@IndianaFootball joins @yalefootball as the only teams in college football history to go 16-0 🔥😱 pic.twitter.com/NrluJY48Cv
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) January 20, 2026
TCU transfer Josh Hoover should keep the IU offense humming, but can he live up to Fernando Mendoza's performance in Bloomington? Indiana lost a ton of seniors. It's tough to expect zero losses again in 2026.
James Madison Dukes
2025 Record: 12-2
Confidence Rating: 10
Bob Chesney did a great job replacing Curt Cignetti at James Madison, winning 21 games in two seasons and qualifying for the College Football Playoff in 2025. Unfortunately for the Dukes, he did so well that it propelled him to earn the UCLA head-coaching job.
Billy Napier is the new head coach, and he's proven to have success outside of the SEC. However, standout QB Alonzo Barnett III is gone, along with several other big-time contributors. Napier might get the Dukes back in conference title contention, but it'll probably take a year or two to build the program in his image.
Navy Midshipmen
2025 Record: 11-2
Confidence Rating: 9
Brian Newberry has quietly been one of the best head coaches in the sport over the last two seasons, posting a stellar 21-5 record. Especially in the new era of college football, winning at service academies is about as difficult as it comes.
The Midshipmen should remain a contender in the American Conference, but some regression can be expected with the loss of star QB Blake Horvath, who tallied 60 total touchdowns in his final 24 games.
North Texas Mean Green
2025 Record: 12-2
Confidence Rating: 10
North Texas led the country in total offense per game last season (512.4), but unfortunately, its head coach, leading passer, leading rusher, leading receiver, and more left for Oklahoma State, leaving the program in a state of transition.
Oklahoma State is hiring North Texas head coach Eric Morris, a source tells @On3sports. https://t.co/Hc3JoPPplq https://t.co/xkcQMy6jXp pic.twitter.com/Q2aidWAkHc
— Pete Nakos (@PeteNakos) November 25, 2025
Former Troy and West Virginia head coach Neal Brown is a questionable hire for the Mean Green, but even if he pans out, he won't win 12 games in 2026.
Ohio State Buckeyes
2025 Record: 12-2
Confidence Rating: 5
The Buckeyes will still be a top 10 team and have no shortage of talent, but shouldn't we expect a little bit of win regression? Its dominant defense from 2025 is losing many key pieces, but more importantly, Ohio State's schedule is much more difficult in 2026.
A look at Ohio State’s full 2026 schedule
What will the Buckeyes regular season record be? 🤔⬇️ pic.twitter.com/lNaQR53F3b
— College Football Overtime (@CFB_Overtime) February 11, 2026
Next season, they'll go on the road to face Texas, Iowa, Indiana, and USC. Key challenging home opponents include Oregon and Michigan. After benefiting from a soft schedule last season, the road to 12 wins looks daunting.
Ole Miss Rebels
2025 Record: 13-2
Confidence Rating: 10
Pete Golding and Ole Miss performed admirably in the College Football Playoff without Lane Kiffin, but 13 wins is a lot to chase, and the Rebels are losing important pieces to the NFL and transfer portal. If Trinidad Chambliss is not granted another season of collegiate eligibility, 13 teams are surely not attainable.
But even if he comes back, he'll be working with a new offensive coordinator and play-caller. At least a small step back should be expected for the team overall.
South Florida Bulls
2025 Record: 9-4
Confidence Rating: 8
Head coach Alex Golesh and quarterback Byrum Brown are now at Auburn, and the Bulls have 33 outgoing transfers with 41 coming in. Brian Hartline has been one of the best position coaches in the country over the last half-decade, but he has no head-coaching experience, so we can't give him the benefit of the doubt.
Alex Golesh on how important it was to bring QB Byrum Brown to Auburn with him.
"I would say priceless in a lot of ways, really grateful that he's an Auburn Tiger."@wsfa12news @wsfa12sports @CraigNoyes58 pic.twitter.com/Ut2oBF867G
— Davis Baker (@DavisBakerTV) January 30, 2026
With Navy and North Texas also likely to take a step back, the American Conference is wide open in 2026.
Texas A&M Aggies
2025 Record: 11-2
Confidence Rating: 7
Like Ohio State, the Aggies should still field a strong team in 2026, but their schedule is more difficult compared to last season. Last season, A&M faced just one SEC team that finished in the final AP top 25. And they lost to that Texas team in the regular-season finale.
Next year, the program will have a tougher path. Home games against Tennessee and Texas are toss-ups, and the road schedule includes LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Missouri. Nine or 10 wins are still in play with a bowl game, but 11 will be tough to get to.
Vanderbilt Commodores
2025 Record: 10-3
Confidence Rating: 10
Clark Lea's Vanderbilt program might be here to stay long-term, but replacing veteran quarterback Diego Pavia should come with some growing pains. Five-star freshman Jared Curtis can't be expected to play at Pavia's level in Year 1.
An incredible season for Diego Pavia 👏
⚓️ 4,000+ Total Yds
⚓️ 36 Total TD
⚓️ First Heisman finalist in Vandy history
⚓️ First 10-win season in Vandy history pic.twitter.com/ud0HRF7dLV— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) December 14, 2025
The Commodores face Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Tennessee in 2026 and will be underdogs in all four games. Road tests at Auburn and Florida could also prove to be toss-ups. If Vandy finds a way to even come close to 10 wins again, Lea will be considered one of the best coaches in America at year's end.
Other Potential Fallers
- Missouri Tigers
- TCU Horned Frogs
- UConn Huskies
- Utah Utes
