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Ed Sutelan examines recently called-up MLB prospects and rookies for the 2016 fantasy baseball season. Some rookies are fantasy sleepers, other are busts.
It has not taken long for several rookies to make a name for themselves early in this season. Obviously, there is no bigger story on the season than Trevor Story of the Colorado Rockies. Tyler White of the Houston Astros has really flown under the radar, but he has been a major force for Houston in the middle of that lineup.
After these rookies were promoted to the majors, they were removed from my Top 30 Prospects list. This article gives my analysis on several prospects who are now in the majors and what to expect from them from here on out.
Editor’s Note: to read about even more MLB prospects, rookies and potential call-ups, be sure to check out our MLB prospects for fantasy baseball homepage which has lots of great weekly analysis.
MLB Rookie Hitters - Recent Call-Ups
Corey Seager (SS, LAD)
Stats: 36 PA, 0 HR, 6 R, 4 RBI, 0 SB, 5.6% BB rate, 8.3% K rate, .333/.361/.455
The better of the two rookie shortstops in the majors, Corey Seager has flown largely under the radar due in large part to another NL West shortstop. So far this season, Seager has spent most of his time batting second in the Dodgers’ lineup which puts him in a prime position to pick up some decent runs batted in totals and great runs scored totals. Seager is capable of hitting 20 home runs this season with a .270+ batting average. Don't expect much in the way of stolen bases, but his all-around offensive contribution should more than make up for that. The 21-year-old shortstop is by far the most valuable rookie in baseball, even if he did not start the season off nearly as hot as that other shortstop.
Trevor Story (SS, COL)
Stats: 32 PA, 7 HR, 7 R, 12 RBI, 0 SB, 3.1% BB rate, 34.4% K rate, .290/.313/.968
And of course that other shortstop is Trevor Story. With seven home runs in his first six career games, it would be hard to imagine a better start to his Major League career. And I have news for fantasy owners: the power is real, the batting average is not. To this point, Story has nine hits (seven of which are home runs) which has led to a .290 batting average. In his Minor League career, Story has shown power and speed, having hit 20 home runs and stolen 22 bases between Triple-A and Double-A last season. But like many power hitters, Story has a tendency to take a lot of walks and a lot of strikeouts. Story has struck out more than 20% of the time at every level outside of rookie ball and most have been above 24% of the time. Story is likely to strikeout about 25% in the majors and hit somewhere around .250 with 25-30 home runs and 15-20 stolen bases this season. He may not hit for a great average this season, but he will certainly provide enough value to be worth owning in all fantasy leagues.
Tyler White (1B/3B, HOU)
Stats: 30 PA, 3 HR, 3 R, 10 RBI, 0 SB, 10.0% BB rate, 20.0% K rate, .520/.567/1.000
Another rookie whose great start has been overshadowed by Story is Tyler White of the Houston Astros. White has already hit three home runs this season and is batting an incredible .520 through his first five games. Just like Trevor Story, part of what he has done this season is unsustainable. Only with White, that would be his power. White’s combination of an advanced approach to the plate and quick bat should help him to maintain a high batting average, but scouts are all convinced that he does not have enough power to hit more than 10 this season.
Fantasy owners can expect a high batting average (.280+), decent runs scored and runs batted in totals (since he is batting in the middle of that lineup), very few home runs, and no stolen bases. Even if AJ Reed is promoted to the majors this season, it is likely that White would shift over to third base and continue to provide steady fantasy production.
Byron Buxton (OF, MIN)
Stats: 22 PA, 0 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI, 0 SB, 0.0% BB rate, 50.0% K rate, .182/.182/.273
If you’re looking for a player with the highest upside of all rookies, look no further than Byron Buxton. The former top prospect according to MLB.com and Baseball America, Buxton has 30+ stolen base potential and some scouts see him as possessing 20 home run potential. It has been a very slow start to his career so far, but Buxton has started off slow at every level he has played at and should get it going at some point soon. Realistically, fantasy owners should expect something in the neighborhood of a .260 batting average with 10 home runs and 20+ stolen bases on the season. He is not going to rock the socks off of fantasy owners, but he should provide enough fantasy value to be worth owning in most fantasy leagues.
Brandon Drury (2B/3B, ARI)
Stats: 14 PA, 0 HR, 0 R, 1 RBI, 0 SB, 0.0% BB rate, 21.4% K rate, .214/.214/.286
Give Brandon Drury credit--he has received playing time and he has done well with the limited time he has had. The problem is that though Drury has a decent path to playing time, he does not have an overwhelmingly great skill-set. Drury could potentially hit 10 home runs, but he will not steal any bases and he may only hit about .250 - .260. The 23-year-old utility player is an intriguing prospect, but he lacks enough upside to make him worth owning in anything except really deep leagues.
Scott Schebler (OF, CIN)
Stats: 16 PA, 0 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, 0 SB, 6.3% BB rate, 31.3% K rate, .267/.313/.467
Just ask Reds fans how clutch Scott Schebler has been for the Reds this season. He came up clutch with a walk-off RBI double on April 6th against the Phillies and has been a major force in the Reds lineup when he has played. To this point, Adam Duvall has seen more of the playing time out in left field, but that will probably start to change with the way Duvall is struggling and Schebler is excelling. Capable of hitting 15 home runs and stealing 15 bases, Schebler offers a lot of fantasy upside if he can get the playing time. He may not hit for a great average (will probably top out at about .240), but Schebler could potentially be worth in owning in some 12+ team leagues.
Byung-ho Park (1B, MIN)
Stats: 24 PA, 1 HR, 2 R, 1 RBI, 0 SB, 8.3% BB rate, 50.0% K rate, .143/.250/.286
Byung-ho Park has got some serious power and enters the season as the favorite to win the American League Rookie of the Year award. Park slugged 105 home runs in his past two seasons while in Korea. Park is liable to strikeout at a fairly high rate as most power hitters often do, but his insane home run totals will more than make up for that. The expectation for Park should be somewhere around a .250 batting average with 25+ home runs and no stolen bases. Batting in the middle of the Twins lineup should also help him drive in his fair share of runs and score a decent amount of runs as well. He is a must-own in all fantasy leagues.
Hector Olivera (3B, ATL)
Stats: 21 PA, 0 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, 0 SB, 4.8% BB rate, 23.8% K rate, .211/.238/.263
Though by no means a must own player, Hector Olivera could be a decent player to own in most fantasy leagues if he does not miss much time this season. The one thing that Olivera is guaranteed which can often be tough to find for several rookies is playing time. Olivera will start in left field for the Braves this season and could hit .260 - .270 with 15 home runs and decent runs scored and runs batted in totals. Unfortunately for owners of the 31-year-old left fielder, Olivera is currently involved in a potential domestic assault case. For now, owners should steer clear of him as it is unclear of how much time he will miss after this issue.
Nomar Mazara (OF, TEX)
Stats: 14 PA, 1 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, 0 SB, 0.0% BB rate, 21.4% K rate, .462/.429/.692
Promoted on April 10 in the wake of Shin-Soo Choo’s injury, Nomar Mazara is an absolute must-own prospect and could make himself the favorite for AL Rookie of the Year if he plays for the rest of the season. I often talked about how Mazara’s clearest path to playing time would be through an injury and it just so happened that one occurred after the first week of the season. Shin-Soo Choo is likely going to be out for about a month with a calf injury and Mazara figures to grab most of if not all of the playing time in his absence. Mazara should be able to hit .285 or better in the majors with 20 or more home runs. Mazara has exhibited reliable plate discipline in the minors which should helps to reassure fantasy owners that he will not be a bust. Though he will not be able to provide any stolen bases, batting second in the Rangers lineup should be enough to help him score enough runs and pile up enough runs batted in to make him well worth owning. Now that he is in the majors, Mazara is just as worth owning as Seager, Story, and all the other top prospects.
Max Kepler (OF, MIN)
Stats: 1 PA, 0 HR, 0 R, 0 RBI, 0 SB, 100.0% BB rate, 0.0% K rate, .000/1.000/.000
With Danny Santana headed to the disabled list, the Twins decided to promote one of their top outfield prospects, Max Kepler. Kepler is talented enough to be a major league regular, but Twins manager Paul Molitor told Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com that Kepler will be almost exclusively as a defensive replacement. The 23-year-old outfielder will likely be demoted once Santana comes off the DL. So while he is more than capable of starting in left field for the Twins, it is unlikely that he will see enough playing time to keep him in the majors and make him worth owning. If Kepler does see regular starting time with the Twins, he has the skillset to provide a little bit of everything for fantasy owners. Kepler is capable of hitting for some decent power, though he has yet to show too much power in the numbers. He also possesses above-average speed which will likely result in 15-20 stolen bases per season. Fantasy owners could expect to see him hit around 10 home runs per season with 15-20 stolen bases per year. Add him to your watch list, but don’t add him to your team unless he sees regular playing time.
Mallex Smith (OF, ATL)
Stats: 8 PA, 0 HR, 1 R, 0 RBI, 0 SB, 12.5% BB rate, 25.0% K rate, .143/.250/.143
Mallex Smith was recently promoted to the majors and for fantasy owners, there is some value to be had with owning Smith. Smith may not be a great hitter, but he has elite speed, easily capable of stealing 40+ bases per season if given full playing time. Think Billy Hamilton that is slightly better at hitting and a little bit slower. Reaching base may not be as much of a struggle for Smith, though his speed is not quite Hamilton's (granted, no one really comes close to Hamilton's speed). With Ender Inciarte now injured, Smith will likely see the bulk of the playing time in center field. Though by no means an elite prospect, Smith and his speed warrant owning in most leagues as long as Inciarte is hurt just because of how many stolen bases Smith is capable of contributing. Fantasy owners are advised to take a chance on Smith, particularly if they were owners of Inciarte who placed him on their team's disabled list.
Jeremy Hazelbaker (OF, STL)
Stats: 23 PA, 2 HR, 5 R, 5 RBI, 2 SB, 8.7% BB rate, 21.7% K rate, .526/.522/1.053
It has been a long and winding road for Jeremy Hazelbaker of the St. Louis Cardinals, but finally the 28-year-old outfielder has reached the majors and has not disappointed. There was a time not so long ago when Hazelbaker was putting up numbers that made people wonder whether or not he would become the next big thing in the majors. Back in 2012 with Boston's Double-A team, Hazelbaker hit 19 home runs, stole 33 bags, and maintained a .273 batting average. Now several years removed and having seen a decline in performance in each of the past few years, Hazelbaker no longer looked like a sure fire Major League producer. While there is some value still left to be had, as he could potentially regain some of his power/speed combo that made him such an intriguing prospect years ago, his poor plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired. For fantasy owners, if Hazelbaker is able to maintain a role with the Cardinals for the full season, expect something around a .240 batting average with 12 home runs and 22 stolen bases.
MLB Rookie Pitchers - Recent Call-Ups
Steven Matz (SP, NYM)
Stats: 1.2 IP, 5.40 K/9, 10.80 BB/9, 5.40 HR/9, 37.80 ERA, 13.46 FIP
By far the best pitching rookie in the majors right now, Steven Matz is guaranteed a spot in the Mets rotation and should do wonders with it. Though Matz was roughed up in his first outing against the Marlins, fantasy owners should not panic just yet as he still has decent upside for fantasy owners. Does he have the same upside as fellow Mets starters Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, or Jacob deGrom? No. But he should at least be the best number four pitcher in fantasy baseball and will provide value more consistent with a number two or number three starter. Fantasy owners should expect 175 innings with a decent 3.35 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 160 strikeouts. He is a must own in all fantasy leagues.
Kenta Maeda (SP, LAD)
Stats: 12.0 IP, 6.00 K/9, 0.75 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9, 0.00 ERA, 2.43 FIP
Hitting a home run in his second career plate appearance and dealing six shutout innings against the Dodgers in his debut, Kenta Maeda really stole the show early for the Dodgers. Signed to a eight year, $25 million dollar contact in January, Maeda is considered by many to be a very low risk signing because of the fact that his contract is filled with incentives and he possesses extremely sharp control. Maeda does not possess the overwhelmingly dominant stuff that some other Japanese pitchers possess, but he will be a reliable starter for the Dodgers this season. He should be owned in all fantasy leagues with the expectation that he will throw 180 innings with 160 strikeouts and a decent ERA somewhere around 3.40.
Colin Rea (SP, SD)
Stats: 4.1 IP, 10.38 K/9, 10.38 BB/9, 2.08 HR/9, 12.46 ERA, 7.50 FIP
Colin Rea is a solid starting pitcher, but the fact that he does not strike out many batters means that his fantasy upside is limited. He was hit hard in his first start of 2016 by the Rockies, but that should not deter fantasy owners too much. What should deter fantasy owners is the fact that he has yet to spin a strikeout rate higher than 7.50 at a level higher than High-A which likely means he will not be a great strikeout pitcher. He has some value in deep leagues and NL-only leagues, but he is not worth owning in leagues with fewer than 12 teams even with his guarantee of starting time.
Ross Stripling (SP, LAD)
Stats: 7.1 IP, 4.91 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9, 1.23 ERA, 3.90 FIP
Pulled after 7.1 hitless innings in his Major League debut, Ross Stripling certainly put his name in the spotlight early. And while Stripling is a decent starting pitcher who should maintain his hold on one of the rotation spots for the Dodgers, it boggles my mind that he is owned in 20% of Yahoo leagues. Prior to this season, Stripling had thrown only 161.1 innings at Double-A and had no prior experience at Triple-A. The big plus with Stripling is his command which makes him a relatively low risk player, but he lacks any pitches that would be consider well above-average, limiting his upside. He is worth owning in 12+ team leagues and NL-only leagues, but he is not as good of a pitcher as his debut would lead you to believe.
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