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Every year, every fantasy owner tries to predict who will breakout and outperform their draft day cost by a significant margin. The players that manage to do so may be viewed skeptically the next year, as the fantasy world wonders if the performance is repeatable. Sometimes, younger players are given a pass on that skepticism because they are young.
This list will not award any such free passes, as four out of five featured players are young. Youth is an advantage, but not a magical tonic that prevents bad things from happening to a player.
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Fantasy Baseball Regression Candidates
Kris Bryant, 3B, CHC
Bryant missed the first two weeks of the season so the Cubs could save a few pennies, but delivered an exciting .275/.369/.488 triple slash line with 26 HR when he did get a chance. Fantasy owners seem to be betting on at least a repeat, as he is being taken an average of 14th overall in early 2016 drafts, per FantasyPros. The power looks real, supported by his minor league history, above average HR/FB of 15.8% and elite 45.2% FB%.
Bryant is not a borderline first rounder if he torpedoes your batting average, however. His .378 BABIP last year was well above league average, and he boasts neither the foot speed or LD% to sustain such a figure. Furthermore, his grounders enjoyed a .320 BABIP that defied the infield shift's usual ability to rob sluggers of base hits. Significant regression is in order for both his ground ball and line drive (.838) BABIPs, and Bryant's .275 average does not have too much room to fall before it stings a little.
Bryant struck out an alarming 30.6% of the time last season, a number completely understandable given his whiff rate of 16.5%. All of the Ks make him unlikely to help with batting average even with the BABIP gods on his side. Lest owners in OBP leagues feel left out, Bryant's above average 11.8% BB% is not the result of plus plate discipline (30.6% O-Swing%) but simply an indication of pitchers respecting Bryant's pop. Bryant should still be good in 2016, but he'll have to be great to justify his current draft cost.
Miguel Sano, DH, MIN
Much of what I said about Bryant applies to Sano as well. He put up an exciting triple slash line (.269/.385/.530) with 18 HR despite missing the beginning of the year so his team could save some money. His 42% FB% was great, while his 26.5% HR/FB certainly suggests a well above average figure moving forward. Once again, elite power looks real.
Unfortunately, he also owned an insane BABIP of .396. Like Bryant, this was fueled partially by his grounders posting a BABIP of .352 despite being pulled much more often than not. Unlike Bryant, he also posted a high 24.7% LD%. Most players can't sustain a number that high, so the odds are long Sano manages to repeat it this year.
Like Bryant, Sano struck out way too much (35.5%) and swung and missed enough to justify it (15.7% SwStr%). Unlike Bryant, Sano flashed some above average plate discipline skills (25.8% O-Swing%) in posting a 15.8% BB%. This makes Sano a stronger selection in OBP formats, especially considering an ADP over 40 picks after Bryant. Still, he should be viewed as a batting average risk, on a less than stellar offensive club, that offers little positional flexibility (only nine games at 3B last year).
Xander Bogaerts, SS, BOS
Boston's young shortstop was the top earning player at his position in 2015, posting a .320/.355/.421 triple slash line with 84 runs, 81 RBI, seven dingers and 10 swipes. This has many calling for him to improve, as the seven homers were somewhat disappointing given his minor league history. If the power comes back, it is likely that the average regresses in a big way, however.
Bogaerts managed an above average BABIP of .372 mostly by hitting the ball on the ground 52.7% of the time. This left very little room for fly balls, which accounted for just 25.8% of his batted ball portfolio. The few fly balls he did strike were not very productive, as his HR/FB declined from 7.1% in 2014 to 5.3% last year. Grounders never turn into homers, so a drastic change would be necessary for any power surge. Yet the .372 BABIP will decline if he hits more balls in the air, and he may lack the foot speed to maintain a .322 BABIP on grounders regardless.
Bogaerts is currently projected to hit third in the order, a slot that offers him favorable R and RBI opportunities in a strong lineup. His lack of pop makes him an odd choice for this role, however, and Boston has plenty of established veterans that could usurp him with a hot start. His 15.4% K% is very strong, too strong for his 9.1% SwStr% to sustain. A SB uptick is not suggested by going 30 for 51 in professional SB opportunities. While it is possible that everything clicks and he becomes a superstar in 2016, it is at least as likely that the power doesn't come, he loses his lineup slot and becomes waiver fodder in the majority of leagues.
John Lackey, SP, CHC
Lackey, 36, discovered the fountain of youth in 2015 by posting a 13-10 record with a fantastic 2.77 ERA. The advanced metrics did not like him nearly as much, as he posted a 3.57 FIP and 3.77 xFIP. The biggest discrepancy can be found in his strand rate, as 82.6% of his baserunners failed to cross the plate. Elevated strikeout rates are usually required to consistently strand a lot of runners, and Lackey's below average 19.5% K% is probably not enough to repeat it.
Maybe most owners know to take Lackey's performance with several grains of salt. More troubling is a change in pitch selection, as Lackey threw more 2-seamers (14.7% in 2014 to 32% last year) at the expense of his fastball (48.7% to 35.3%) last season. This seems to represent an intentional effort to trade strikeouts for ground balls, as the heat offered a much higher SwStr% last season (8.1% vs. 4.4%). The 2-seamer generated a lot more grounders (31.4% GB% vs. 52.4%), but that is not a trade I would want to make as a fantasy owner.
In terms of results, the 2-seamer posted a slightly better triple slash line (.254/.295/.348) than the heater (.259/.311/.418) last season. The 2-seamer was murdered to the tune of .312/.367/.464 in 2014, however, so I'm not sure we should completely trust its performance. Lackey is getting older, and his K% is more likely heading south than north. He's fine as an end of the rotation play, but don't be suckered in to overpaying for his 2015 stats.
Nathan Eovaldi, SP, NYY
Eovaldi's 14-3 record in 2015 had much more to do with run support than quality pitching, as his final ERA was 4.20. Both FIP (3.42) and xFIP (3.81) liked him a little more. His overall K% of 18% left a lot to be desired, especially for someone that averages 96.6 mph on his fastball.
Eovaldi's "breakout" 2015 didn't really start until the season's second half, when he finally perfected a splitter he had been playing with since spring training. In the first half, he posted a bad 16.5% K%. In the second, the split elevated it to a still slightly below average 20.7%. The split itself ranks as a pretty good strikeout pitch, offering a 16.3% SwStr% with an above average chase rate.
The problem is the rest of Eovaldi's arsenal. The heater lights up the radar gun, but is bad by both SwStr% (5.3%) and results (.331/.404/.454). Eovaldi's slider was nearly as good in 2014 as his split was last year, offering a 15.9% SwStr%. However, working on the split caused the slider to decline to a 10.7% SwStr% last year, and it allowed many more hits (.308/.345/.423 against 2014's .248/.264/.346) as well. Eovaldi still has one weapon he has no reliable means to get to, and figures to continue baffling everyone by pairing elite velocity with pedestrian results.
