March 19, 2016

Kyle Bishop fantasy baseball draft tips for finding undervalued outfielders. He analyzes the RotoBaller fantasy baseball rankings, using ADP to identify potential sleepers.

If you’re a regular reader of RotoBaller (and how could someone as smart, funny, and handsome as you not be?), you’ve doubtless already checked out our rankings assistant tool. We've been putting out a ton of content since December, and we rolled out our last preseason update this week.

With draft season ramping up now, though, it seems like a good time to check our expert opinions against the wisdom of the crowds. Over the next several days, we’ll highlight players with notable discrepancies between their ADP and how the staff here at RotoBaller views their 2016 value.

All ADP data is courtesy of FantasyPros. Quoted figures are the players’ ranking at their position and not their overall ADP.

Outfielders We Prefer

Curtis Granderson

ADP: 41st | RotoBaller (RB) Rank: 25th | My rank: 28th

Granderson was one of only eight players to hit at least 25 homers and steal 10 or more bases last season. None of the others will be available after the first three rounds, and the majority of them are first-round selections. Granderson, meanwhile, has a current ADP of 153. Our staff rankings have him just outside the top 25 outfielders, because for some reason everyone else really likes Jacoby Ellsbury this year. But, I digress. The Grandy Man may be entering his age-35 season, but he’s been pretty durable throughout his career and should remain atop an improved Mets lineup.

David Peralta

ADP: 37th | RB Rank: 28th | My rank: 24th

Suffice it to say that I’m completely buying his 2015 breakout. He got the majority of his at-bats as Arizona’s cleanup hitter, hitting behind A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt. Given a full season in that spot, Peralta should rack up a good amount of RBI. The Arizona lineup is top heavy, but Peralta uses his gap power and speed to great effect in taking extra bases, which will help him score more runs than he otherwise would. He has untapped stolen base upside as well.

Brett Gardner

ADP: 40th | RB Rank: 30th | My rank: 27th

Gardner doesn’t steal bases like he did back in the day, but he’s remade himself as a player by adding power. He’s averaged 16 homers and 20 steals over the last two seasons, and 89 runs scored over the last five. Regular readers know that I’ve stumped fairly hard for Adam Eaton in recent weeks. Gardner offers similar production at an ADP that’s three rounds later. He won’t help much in average and RBI, but he’s a consistent producer in the other three standard categories.

Joc Pederson

ADP: 45th | RB Rank: 34th | My rank: 25th

Despite a second-half collapse, Pederson still hit 26 home runs and posted a 15.7% walk rate in his rookie season. Yes, the contact issues will continue to suppress his batting average. The lack of stolen bases (just four in 11 attempts) was a disappointing development as well. However, Pederson averaged 29 steals in his four minor league seasons and posted much higher Speed scores than he did in his first MLB campaign. With Don Mattingly out of the picture, Pederson should have a longer leash during the inevitable slumps that come with being a three true outcomes hitter. Steamer projects another 26 homers, but also 14 steals and 87 runs. Even with a low batting average, that kind of category juice merits a top-30 ranking at the position, especially factoring in Pederson’s growth potential.

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