San Diego Chargers: 2014 Fantasy Football Analysis & Team Outlook

San Diego Chargers Offseason Changes

Offseason Aquisitions – RB, Donald Brown

No Longer on the Roster – N/A

The San Diego Chargers are the epitome of the ultimate let-down team in the NFL, both in real life and in fantasy football. For years NFL pundits and fantasy experts alike have talked them up in the pre-season as playoff contenders and fantasy darlings only to be let down time after time. The 2013 season appeared to be the first time everyone had pretty much given up hope on all things powder blue so of course the team churned out three surprising fantasy performances and actually got themselves back into the playoffs. It’s kind of unbelievable how that works in sports but it’s part of why we watch and play. There’s no real explanation for the phenomenon so we just have to accept it and try to figure out what it means going forward. Let’s give that a whirl.

 

San Diego Chargers Quarterback

Philip Rivers has had one of the most bizarre careers in terms of on the field performance and choice of attire. (The draft stock of that bolo tie is still plummeting.) He was a solidified fantasy starter years ago, collapsed to the point where he was untouchable, and now he’s suddenly “fixed.” After throwing for 4,478 yards in 2013 and leading the league (the entire league!) in completion percentage, it’s easy to start salivating at the prospect of being the last guy to draft a quarterback and riding the Philip Rivers comeback train all the way to the championship. To that I say, please slow down. I don’t think that train is going to derail but it’s definitely going to switch from express to local. It’s only one “comeback” year folks.

There are still guys named Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick who haven’t even reached their ceiling yet. And for every Philip Rivers who has had one comeback year there is a Tom Brady and Matt Ryan who has had one bad year. That being said, if your plan is to draft an injury risk like Robert Griffin III and you intend to back him up immediately, then by all means, take Rivers. Better yet, I would advocate waiting to be the last guy to draft a quarterback and take two of them right away. Roll with Rivers AND Tony Romo. That way if Rivers turns back into a pumpkin, you’ll at least have Romo. There is one part of Rivers 32 passing touchdowns that peaks some interest but it has more to do with his new found friend at wide receiver…

 

San Diego Chargers Wide Receivers

It is extremely rare for a rookie wide receiver to become an instant star, especially in fantasy. Keenan Allen wasn’t on anyone’s radar heading into 2013 but once he burst onto the scene he was there to stay. He wasn’t a top 10 receiver by any means but he was firmly cemented as a mid-level WR2. Being a rookie, the expectation is that he will improve in year two, seeing his 71 receptions on 105 targets increase a bit. The dreaded sophomore slump doesn’t really apply to guys like Allen who are given legitimately fair rankings heading into their second season. Allen is viewed as a top 20 wide receiver.

Now that Rivers and Allen have established a rapport virtually immediately, it’ll be easy to replicate that success on a team that has virtually no other established passing options. There are names like Vincent Brown and Malcolm Floyd still moping around in San Diego but we’ve kind of already been there, done that with them. There’s no reason to expect any of those guys to suddenly turn it around and become serviceable. Keen Allen is the only guy you want and he should fill the fantasy WR2 role perfectly.

 

San Diego Chargers Running Backs

Well if it isn’t Mr. Glass himself, Ryan Mathews. For years Ryan Mathews apologists would exclaim that “this would be the year” he would finally stay healthy and turn into a fantasy stud. Mathews finally did play all 16 games last year, racking up 1,255 yards in the process on 285 carries. That carries stat is fairly important when you consider that bested Eddie Lacy by one for fourth most in the NFL. So yes, Mathews was indeed as good as he was talked up to be…if it were 2011.

Mathews, like Rivers, performed after the hype had withered away so it went relatively unnoticed. The problem with Mathews in San Diego was that he was plagued by point per reception machine Danny Woodhead who is still on the team. And oh by the way, the team also signed Donald Brown. Considering the year Mathews had, it’s not like the Chargers will suddenly yank away 85 carries from him but you don’t bring in a guy like Donald Brown unless you intend to use him. The smart money would be on Mathews to carry the bulk of the workload, similar to last year, Woodhead would be the pass-catching running back, and Donald Brown would be the third down back or something to that effect. This would limit Ryan Mathews to a degree, keep Woodhead valuable in a PPR league, and give Donald Brown inadvertent handcuff status.

Currently, Mathews rounds out the top 20 among running back rankings and that’s fine except that whole group of guys is over ranked. Don’t force your hand to take a second running back just for the sake of having one. You can get a guy like Steven Jackson a whole round or two later and if he’s healthy (see what I did there?) he should be every bit as good as Mathews. Passing on Mathews in the fourth round could net you Pierre Garcon of the Redskins who is a much more viable fantasy option.

 

San Diego Chargers Rookies & Tight Ends

The Chargers didn’t really draft anyone noteworthy, using a sixth and seventh round pick on running back Marion Grice and wide receiver Tevin Reese respectively.

The tight end position for San Diego is much more perplexing. The decline of Antonio Gates in recent years was sort of slowed a bit in 2013 as he just barely bounced back up to top 10 fantasy tight end status. With another year under his belt, it’s fair to question if the end is near for Gates and whether or not Ladarius Green is ready to take the torch. They’re actually ranked close together by most which basically means you can ignore them for now. You will, however, ultimately need to play a tight end in a bye week so if you’re in the business of drafting two, Gates and Green are fair options to consider. Another option might be to back up injury prone Rob Gronkowski with a tight end in the 12-15 range so you have some insurance. Not a bad idea to consider Gates and Green are there as well.

 

San Diego Chargers in Summary

I’m sure we’ll have to throw everything about the Chargers out of the window the second the season starts but until then do your best to properly evaluate each key player. Rivers likely won’t be a top 10 fantasy QB again but he should have a respectable year. Keenan Allen is the Charger you want to target, temporarily passing on Ryan Mathews, hoping for a slide. As for the rest, they’re all in a weird state of flux where it’s possible they’re more usable than they appear or just plain old untouchable.