RADIO
Andrew Ericksen gives an overview of five injured wide receivers who fantasy football managers can target in trade and buy low on.
Fantasy managers who are off to a strong start to the year should begin taking a glance toward the latter months of the season at this point. If you’re 4-0 or 3-1, start thinking about the players who could help you most down the stretch. Adding a hot waiver wire commodity like Damien Williams or Samaje Perine might help you this week, but it’s unlikely to do much for you in the postseason. You should instead have your focus on players who are safer bets to see significant roles for their teams in December.
If you’ve started off the season 0-4 or 1-3, don’t lose hope! Remember, there’s an extra week in most fantasy leagues as the NFL schedule has been expanded to 17 games this year. However, even with that in mind, this column isn’t for the 0-4 and 1-3 fantasy managers out there. If you’re under .500, you need to start compiling wins ASAP and it makes more sense for you to trade one of the players featured in this column than it does to acquire one.
Here is a look at five currently injured receivers who have a chance to be fantasy difference-makers when it matters most this year. We’ll take a look at when they should return, how much you should be willing to trade for them and what leagues you should target them in.
Editor's Note: Find sleeper picks, undervalued ADPs, and draft targets to help you dominate your fantasy football drafts. Try our free who to draft tool for personalized recommendations.
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas underwent ankle surgery this past June and has been slowly working his way back ever since. He was placed on the physically unable to perform list in late August. This move made him ineligible to play for the first six weeks of the NFL season. Well, look where we are today. We’re going into Week 5 right now and to make things even more convenient for Thomas, the Saints have a bye in Week 6. So he’s only guaranteed to miss one more game.
The best-case scenario for Thomas is a Week 7 return against the Seattle Seahawks, who have one of the league’s worst pass defenses. It’s unclear whether Thomas will indeed be ready for that game, but there were reports during the offseason that he was ahead of schedule with his rehab. So even if he’s not back by Week 7, the wait shouldn’t be too much longer.
Thomas was a set-and-forget WR1 for the first four years of his career before struggling with injuries last year. He’s now 28 years old, still in his “prime window,” but the injuries are piling up and he no longer has the luxury of Drew Brees throwing him passes. The Saints have been extremely conservative offensively so far, averaging just 144 passing yards per game, the second-fewest in the league. Thomas should give the passing attack a boost, but it’s not the same offense we saw in the Brees years.
Think of Thomas as a mid-to-low tier WR2 with upside in the second half of the year. He’ll be the clear No. 1 option in a below average passing game. That’s still worth a good amount for any fantasy manager in need of a sure-fire starter down the stretch. A good way to approach a trade for Thomas is by packaging your first running back off the bench and first receiver off the bench, or even your weakest starting receiver. Something like a combination of Chase Edmonds and Courtland Sutton should get the job done and help bolster your starting lineup for the stretch.
Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
We couldn’t even get a full game from second-year Denver Broncos wide receiver Jerry Jeudy before the former Alabama star suffered a crushing high ankle sprain. He’s currently on injured reserve and while he’s technically eligible to return as soon as this week, it’s likely that he won’t make his return until Week 6 or Week 7. The initial timeline he received was four-to-six weeks.
Jeudy was a popular breakout pick after having a fantastic training camp by all reports. He was selected 15th overall by the team last year, but had a rough rookie year with quarterback Drew Lock struggling to deliver quality passes to him - plus he of course had wide receiver Kendall Hinton chucking him passes one week. According to Pro Football Focus, he had the most uncatchable targets in the league last year.
Jerry Jeudy in 2020:
🔸 26 uncatchable targets (Most)
🔸 24% of targets incomplete b/c of the QB (Highest % in the NFL)@Ihartitz on the unluckiest WRs of 2020 ⬇ https://t.co/L37twPNWQJ— PFF (@PFF) April 16, 2021
This year, the Broncos offense looks far superior with Teddy Bridgewater under center. Bridgewater is currently under concussion protocol but there’s no risk at this point of him missing extended time. Through four games, he has a ridiculous 110.6 passer rating thanks to his 72.1% completion rate to go along with five touchdowns and no interceptions.
Jeudy stands to be the greatest beneficiary of the quarterback improvement in Denver this year. Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick are both solid NFL receivers, but neither has the dynamic playmaking ability of Jeudy. His upside is considerable and I don’t think it’s a stretch by any means to label him as the highest upside receiver on this list. However, since he has yet to deliver high-end fantasy value in the NFL (unlike Thomas), you should be able to get him for cheaper than Thomas. Trade away your WR3 or WR4 for him or if you’re deep at running back, consider parting ways with someone who is more of a short-term asset like Chuba Hubbard or Trey Sermon.
Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
Just like Jeudy, Dallas Cowboys receiver Michael Gallup couldn’t make it a full game into the 2021 season before being sidelined with an injury. Gallup strained his left calf in Week 1 and was placed on injured reserve after the game. Again like Jeudy, he’s eligible to return this week, but it’s already been reported that he won’t be ready for the team’s Week 5 matchup against the New York Giants.
Gallup has the luxury of being a member of one of the league’s most explosive offenses. However, he also has the downside of being the very clear No. 3 receiver in the loaded Cowboys offense thanks to the uber-talented duo of Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. Last year, the ball was spread around a lot and all three of the team’s top three receivers saw at least 100 targets. Here’s how they finished the season:
Through four weeks this year, Lamb has the slight target edge on Cooper with 32 to Cooper’s 29. Cooper suffered a hamstring injury that limited him this past week, but it still seems fair to label the duo as a 1A and 1B at this point with Gallup as the clear No. 3.
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott will have an embarrassment of riches upon Gallup’s return. All three Cowboys receivers are likely to have some off games as Prescott spreads things around, but Gallup’s off games will be more frequent than the others. As a result, he should be viewed as a WR3 for the second half of the year.
If you’re in a league where you need to start three receivers each week and you aren’t feeling comfortable with one of the ones you’ve been starting, Gallup is very much worthy of targeting. The price for him shouldn’t be too significant. Feel free to trade away your fourth or fifth running back or a bench receiver who is over-performing like Quintez Cephus or A.J. Green.
Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns wide receiver Jarvis Landry was placed on injured reserve after suffering an MCL sprain in the team’s Week 2 game against the Houston Texans. He won’t be eligible to return until Week 6. Landry had never missed a game due to injury before this year (one missed game due to COVID last year). So based on that fact, it seems like there’s a good chance he’ll be ready to get back to business when first eligible.
Landry started the 2021 season off strong, catching all five of his targets for 71 yards and adding two rushes for 13 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. However, this performance came in a game where the team was without Odell Beckham Jr., so Landry was the team’s clear No. 1 wideout.
Both Landry and Beckham have had their struggles since joining the Browns, who have been extremely run-heavy the past few years. This year appears to be no exception as the Browns rank 26th in passing yards (212.3 per game) and first in rushing yards (177.0 per game).
Last year, Landry played in 15 of 16 games and failed to reach 80 receptions for the first time in his career. He caught 72 of his career-low 101 targets for 840 yards and three touchdowns on the season.
Landry has always been a low-upside fantasy play and the Browns have taken that low ceiling of his to the next level. In any standard league of 12 teams or fewer, he's arguably not worth a bench spot while he's injured. If he's on the waiver wire, you might be better off taking a gamble on a high-upside waiver wire add like Kadarius Toney or Rashod Bateman. However, in deep PPR leagues where you're starting four receivers or multiple flexes, he could be a sneaky add to help bolster your depth down the stretch.
I wouldn't fork over much for him, but if you're extra deep at running back or even quarterback, there are worse players out there to target than Landry.
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts veteran wide receiver T.Y. Hilton underwent surgery on his neck just before the start of the season. He began the year on injured reserve and is still there as of now, but he’s eligible to return. The team has recently said that he’s getting closer, but he has yet to return to practice. It seems like there’s a chance he could return to practice within the next week and make his season debut in Week 6, but that is far from a guarantee.
The Colts have been surprisingly pass-heavy so far, throwing the ball on 58.8% of their plays, which ranks 14th in the league. Most of that has been due to game flow so far as they’ve gone up against elite offenses like the Seahawks and Rams. Last year, the team ranked 24th in pass percentage, throwing the ball 55.9% of the time.
Hilton has been the Colts’ No. 1 receiver for almost a decade now. But he’s turning 32 years old in November and he’s shown signs of slowing down the past few years. His yards per reception dipped from 16.7 in 2018 to 11.1 in 2019 and he wound up right between those two clips last year (13.6). Despite those trends, he still showed the ability to make big plays for the Colts at times last year.
RIVERS CLUTCH TO TY HILTON 👀
pic.twitter.com/wqQDb2OVkh— PFF (@PFF) December 20, 2020
While Hilton will still most certainly play a big role in the Colts’ offense upon his return, he might play something of a second fiddle to Michael Pittman Jr., who has dominated targets for the team so far with 36. Next best on the team has been Zach Pascal with 23 and no other Colts wide receiver has more than 10 (Parris Campbell). Pascal is in his fourth year and seems best-suited for a supporting role, whereas Pittman is a second-year pro who could be on the verge of a breakout year. The 6’4” former Trojan was a second-round pick of the team in 2020 and he already has a 100-yard game under his belt this year.
Are you trading for or trading away Michael Pittman Jr. after his performance in week 2?
Stats vs the Rams:
12 Targets
8 Rec
123 Yds⬇️All Targets vs the Rams⬇️ pic.twitter.com/GLtZlEy3lH
— Dynasty Nerds 🤓 (@DynastyNerds) September 22, 2021
Hilton should be valued in a similar tier to Landry, but Hilton has a bit more allure. We still don’t know exactly how this Colts offense will shape up when Hilton is healthy and that makes him more intriguing than Landry, who we know is the clear No. 2 in a run-first scheme.
Hilton should be rostered in all leagues, but I wouldn’t splurge for him by any means. Trade away someone who you don’t need to start in the next few weeks for him and you may be rewarded with a solid WR3 for the fantasy playoffs.
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