RADIO
Zero RB has become a popular strategy in fantasy football, but it failed to pay dividends to many owners last season. Kev Mahserejian examines the state of the running back position to determine why it went wrong and how to treat RBs in 2018.
For someone drafting 8th in a 10-man league last year, going Zero-RB could have potentially netted them a top-three round haul of Mike Evans, Jordy Nelson, and Demaryius Thomas. On draft day, this is an amazing stack of WR1s. By the end of the year, it's weekly middling to poor performances that the owners' highest draft capital was spent on. If this roster did not somehow end up with Alex Collins and/or Alvin Kamara in the later rounds, it was likely a lost season.
Staunchly following any strategy along the lines of Zero-RB or WR is not the best way to navigate a fantasy draft. This sentiment has been harped around certain fantasy football communities for a while now, yet some still believe this sort of “cheat code” could win their league.
Don’t get me wrong; a drafter could absolutely win a league by going Zero-RB or WR. However, that would result from more luck than strategy. Hell, most of this game has more to do with luck than strategy, but that's neither here nor there. At the end of the day, it is always about putting yourself in the best position to win.
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Why Go Zero-RB in the First Place?
There was a ton of uncertainty in regards to the RB pool going into 2017. “Sure things” like David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and LeSean McCoy were guaranteed their touches, but after that, it felt as if there were not too many trustworthy bell-cows. Zeke’s suspension was looming, Devonta Freeman had Tevin Coleman on his tail, Melvin Gordon was consistently dinged up and presumed to fail due to his inefficiency, Jordan Howard was on a piss-poor offense, DeMarco Murray was getting up there in age and had a time-share, and Jay Ajayi was coming off a breakout season in which most of his production came over the course of four games.
Zero RB seemed like the way to go in 2017 if you didn’t have a top 3 pick. There were a plethora of elite WR options seen as potential league winners, especially in any PPR leagues. Guys like Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans, Jordy Nelson and AJ Green were presumed to be much more reliable fantasy assets whose first/second-round high price tag was warranted given their past successes and undoubted talents. By the end of the season, these receivers finished (in order) as the number 2, 5, 81, 20, 47 and 11 WRs in 0.5PPR formats.
How It Went Wrong
Antonio Brown is the safest wide receiver in the game and is deserving of his top-five ranking every year. Julio Jones’ production last season primarily came over the course of a handful of games as he only managed to score three touchdowns all season. To be fair to OBJ, he was incredible before breaking his ankle. In hindsight, it was just an unfortunate pick due to bad luck. Jordy Nelson flat out busted; his play and quarterback situation towards the end of the year killed his value. A.J. Green had a down year despite being fairly solid (just not “first round pick” solid). Mike Evans saw his touchdown total and fantasy value drop significantly as Tampa Bay dealt with an injured Jameis Winston for a chunk of the year.
Of the top 16 RB scorers in 0.5PPR in 2017, 12 were typically drafted in the first four rounds. For WRs, 10 of the top-16 were drafted in the first four rounds, and they scored significantly less overall than the running backs.
It’s much easier to strike gold on a WR lottery ticket than it is with an RB due to an array of factors. A WR could score his fair share of points on just two deep targets when an RB would need 10 or more carries and a few catches to contribute a potentially similar load. Also, WRs are a lot more reliant on their QBs than RBs are to contribute. WRs can also be hurt by the weather a lot more often than RBs can. The variance here suggests that RBs taken early are often safer than WRs.
What To Do Going Forward
With "Draft Szn" underway, here are some things to keep in mind in regards to Zero-RB.
For those who choose to go Zero-RB or even accidentally do because of the best available players in the first few rounds, it is a manageable situation. Typically, owners can avoid the high price tags on the RBs in the first few rounds and pick up a high-upside rookie later on. Unfortunately, the rookie running back's this year are a lot less certain than in 2017. Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, and Christian McCaffrey all looked a lot more entrenched into a solid-to-workhorse role in the pre-draft process.
Outside of Saquon Barkley, who is a sure-fire first-rounder, there are a lot more question marks. Royce Freeman has shot up draft boards of late due to his incredible practices and preseason but even he is still behind Devontae Booker on the depth chart. Ronald Jones II hasn't impressed, Rashaad Penny just had hand surgery, Sony Michel has no knee cartilage in one leg, and Derrius Guice won't be back until 2019. The silver lining with some of these guys is that their ADP is due to take a massive drop if they don't rebound in these next two weeks of preseason. You can definitely take a shot in the dark with a couple of these high-pedigree/high-risk guys and hope someone pans out.
Another option would be to look at the guys competing with some of the rookies. Rex Burkhead, Peyton Barber, and Chris Carson are all getting some buzz from their coaching staffs and could totally end up running away with their respective team's starting job. Kenyan Drake's ADP sunk after the addition of Frank Gore, but that might be a blessing in disguise. Carlos Hyde is a workhorse-style back seemingly forgotten in a committee. Also, Green Bay currently has three cheap RB options available in Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones, and Ty Montgomery. One or two of these guys could prove to be valuable by year's end and they probably won't cost more than an eighth or ninth rounder if anything.
Nevertheless, the lack of depth at the position and the instability that comes with some committees should encourage fantasy owners to draft RBs early and often. Fantasy is all about maximizing value, and to outright avoid a shallow position is a folly. Take the best player available in your eyes and worry about positions later. Worst comes to worst, there are always trades to be made.
