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Quickly get start 'em sit 'em advice for Who Should I Start fantasy baseball lineup questions from 5/15 - 5/21 (2023). Connelly tells you who to start and sit.
Welcome RotoBallers to my fantasy baseball start/sit article for the week ahead, May 15 - May 21. This week's article will focus on Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, Gabriel Moreno, Freddy Fermin, Tim Anderson, Jorge Polanco, Hunter Brown, and Louie Varland.
Whether you are prepping to set your weekly lineups or determining who to play in a pivotal daily matchup, choosing who to start vs. sit is one of the most nerve-wracking and potentially frustrating aspects of fantasy baseball. Fortunately, there is a free solution available at RotoBaller. The Who Should I Start Tool allows you to quickly compare any two players and receive fantasy projections for today, tomorrow, or the current week.
The tool provides rankings, projections, recent news, and schedules side-by-side to aid in your decision-making. The tool defaults to ESPN scoring, but the Premium version within Team Sync will automatically use your league's scoring and roster settings when making recommendations. Each week, I will use the tool to review a few interesting start/sit comparisons for the final day of the period and preview the following week. Hopefully, this series will help both daily fantasy managers end their weeks strong and also get them comfortable with routinely using the tool during the week to make tough roster decisions. Let's get into some start vs. sit comparisons for the week ahead, May 15 - May 21!
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Slumping Mariners Outfielders
Julio Rodriguez vs. Teoscar Hernandez
If I said I was debating sitting Julio Rodriguez or Teoscar Hernandez at the beginning of the season, fantasy managers would likely think I'm crazy. However, the outfield teammates have really struggled to start the season. J Rod has provided some counting stats but is only slashing .219/.280/.411. Hernandez has slashed about the same at .215/.258/.389. Fantasy managers likely don't want to sit either, but which has the better chance of turning things around sooner?
J Rod gets the recommendation for Sunday, mostly stemming from his higher batting position. The main advantages come in the runs and stolen base projections. He also gets the slight edge in strikeouts and walks, which reflects how the two have performed to start the season. It isn't a runaway, but RotoBaller clearly gives Rodriguez the edge.
Looking ahead to Week 8, the Mariners have a mixed bag of matchups, with three games at the Red Sox and three at the Braves. Both players have had trouble with strikeouts, with Hernandez really struggling at a 34.6% clip. However, both have produced solid batted-ball profiles, which should hopefully lead to better results. Hernandez has seen better results to this point, with a .284 BABIP compared to Rodriguez's .265.
Ultimately, the decision may come down to league format. Rodriguez offers more speed upside, so he is the better play in roto leagues. Both have not yielded much in points league value lately, but I think I would also lean Rodriguez simply for his overall upside. Ideally, I would like to sit both if possible until they can start to get back to their typical ways.
Rookie Catchers
Gabriel Moreno vs. Freddy Fermin
Our next comparison is between two catchers who have started hot. Gabriel Moreno carries a fantasy pedigree with him and has shown why to start this season, slashing .310/.330/.390. Freddy Fermin has been around longer than Moreno but has capitalized on his big-league opportunity, slashing .333/.379/.741 in 11 games. Catcher is always a difficult position to fill, particularly in two-catcher leagues. Which one of these players could give fantasy managers a boost?
RotoBaller gives Moreno the recommendation for Sunday, but that recommendation seems to hinge on at-bats. The projections assume that Moreno will start and Fermin may not, which logically gives Moreno the advantage in all counting stats. While this makes sense, I would lean toward Fermin if he were to start, given his slugging percentage and OPS projections.
Looking to the following week, the Diamondbacks draw much better matchups with three at the A's and three at the Pirates. The Royals get tougher matchups, with three at the Padres and three at the White Sox. The Diamondbacks are slated to face two lefties, while the Royals will face one.
Moreno has mashed lefties this season and has faced big-league talent longer than Fermin has, which seems to make him the safer player. Moreno won't offer any power and Fermin already has three home runs, but in this case, I will take a larger sample size over the small hot streak. Moreno gets the nod for the following week.
Middling Middle Infielders
Tim Anderson (SS) vs. Jorge Polanco (2B)
This comparison is between two middle infielders who missed time at the start of the season. Despite this, both Tim Anderson and Jorge Polanco have gotten off to ok starts, posting respective slash lines of .241/.290/.299 and .263/.280/.400 . Both have been routine starts since returning to action, but which player could give fantasy managers more production in the coming week?
Anderson gets the slight recommendation here in an interesting comparison. In terms of points, both are pretty much a wash. The difference likely comes down to the roto category need. Anderson is projected to provide more for runs, stolen bases, and batting average, while Polanco is projected higher in home runs and RBI. Polanco also draws a tougher pitching matchup.
The White Sox draw better matchups in Week 8 with three against the Guardians and three against the Royals. On the other hand, the Twins get three at the Dodgers and three at the Angels. Both teams are slated to face five righties and one lefty. Both Anderson and Polanco have struggled to hit righties so far, so both are on a level playing field in that regard.
The White Sox offense has performed above-average overall, while the Twins have scuffled. Their matchups in the coming week may help that trend continue, and Anderson has more speed and on-base skills to offer over Polanco. All things considered, Anderson gets the nod as the better start in Week 8.
Young, Intriguing Starters
Hunter Brown vs. Louie Varland
Every week seems to bring a comparison of two starting pitchers who are relatively new to the scene, and this week is no exception. Hunter Brown has settled into the Astros rotation due to a number of injuries and has performed well with a 3.23 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 24.1% strikeout rate. Louie Varland has also gotten an opportunity due to injuries and has looked good in three starts with a 4.32 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and 28.2% strikeout rate.
Pitching has been all over the place to start the season, so which young pitcher is the better gamble for Sunday and the following week?
RotoBaller gives Brown a strong recommendation for Sunday. Brown draws a favorable matchup at the White Sox, whereas Valrand will face a tougher Cubs matchup. Varland is projected to get significantly more strikeouts, but Brown is projected to perform better in almost all other facets.
Both will get favorable matchups next week, but one pitcher has the clear edge. Hunter Brown will face the A's at home, while Varland will be on the road at the Angels. The Angels have produced a middling offense despite having some stars mixed into the lineup, but the A's are one of the best teams to stream pitchers against.
It is worth noting that Varland profiles to be a bigger fantasy contributor in WHIP and strikeouts compared to Brown based on his Minor League numbers and his few big-league starts, but Brown has pitched well and has the superior matchup. I think both are useful starts for the upcoming week, but Brown is the go-to for fantasy managers who can only start one.
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