RADIO
Week 8 is now complete so we are officially past the fantasy season’s halfway point. With 17 weeks instead of the 16 we had for decades, that halfway point is not as clear as it used to be. I’m going with somewhere around 6:00 PM EST on Sunday. Regardless, another week is here and it’s time to determine what fantasy defenses are best to play this week. We go from no teams on bye in Week 8 to another bye week, this time with four teams getting the week off. It is a relatively bad week for fantasy defenses with some of the better teams in bad matchups, but there are some solid streaming options with low-rostership teams in good matchups. This is one of those weeks where the rankings look strange at first glance. At least they did for me, because some of the typical top defenses are lower down this week, either because they have been underperforming or face a tough matchup.
Week 8 was another chaotic week. For example, the comparison between the Cowboys and Broncos Defense/Special Teams (DST):
The Cowboys DST had a block, a safety, and a defensive TD.
In standard ESPN scoring, the Broncos DST outscored them, the freaking Broncos! Playing against the freaking Chiefs.
— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) October 30, 2023
The fantasy DST game can be a trip, as what I did not include in that tweet was the Broncos finished as the DST1 on the week. With no team on bye, there were a slew of DSTs that hit double-digit fantasy points. The biggest surprise was the aforementioned Broncos finishing as the highest-scoring DST. And the fact that it was against the Chiefs might keep it as the biggest DST surprise of the season. The other defense that surprised me in a good way was the Giants. Granted they were playing Zach Wilson and the Jets, but they have a good rest of fantasy regular season schedule (Weeks 9-14) and I think they will be a good streaming option on multiple occasions.
We also saw multiple disappointing outcomes for some of the better defenses and a few of last week’s popular streamers. My DST1 from last week (Ravens) was a huge disappointment against the Cardinals, and the Bills are not seeming to be able to withstand their barrage of defensive injuries. The 49ers faced the good version of the Bengals and put up a low-scoring day. And the Browns, whom I received some criticism for having them too low last week, scored only five points against Seattle. But it’s a fresh week so let’s get into it.
How To Determine What Defenses To Start
When it comes to determining the top fantasy football defenses each week, you should look at which units have the most upside and can change the trajectory of your matchup. Defenses are often overlooked in fantasy, but as stated above, the top ones from each week can outscore some of your opponent's key starters.
We also need to pay attention to matchup strength. In determining DST matchup strength, I use an adjusted fantasy points-allowed system. I include the raw fantasy points allowed per game to the DST position. I then factor in how that PPG allowed compares to the opponent's average DST PPG. For instance, let’s say Team A allows 10 fantasy points to the Bills' DST. Team B allows five fantasy points to the Raiders' DST. If looking only at raw fantasy points allowed, Team B is ranked as a tougher matchup having given up half as many points. But if the Bills’ DST is averaging 16 PPG while the Raiders' DST is averaging only one PPG, that needs to be factored into the overall matchup strength. Team A’s Points Allowed Over Average (POA) is negative seven. Team B’s POA is plus four. I assign a weight to POA which is factored into the overall rank. Each opponent will include their current rank, with lower numbers representing tougher matchups and higher numbers representing easier matchups.
Matchup strength is important, but it typically shouldn’t outweigh the strength of the DST in making a decision. To maximize the upside of your fantasy defense each week, you need to target units that can get to the quarterback constantly and cause turnovers. Sacks, turnovers, and defensive touchdowns are what create high ceilings for these fantasy defenses. To determine a somewhat safe start at defense, you should look at low point totals and teams that can hold their opponent to less than 20 points.
Tier 1 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 9
Cleveland Browns DST vs. ARI
Yahoo Rostership%: 70%
Vegas Odds: CLE favored by 7.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 37.5
Implied points against: 15
The Browns’ tough matchup on the road against the Seahawks is largely what led to their lower rank in Week 8. That turns around in Week 9 as the Browns return home to face the Cardinals, currently ranked 17th in adjusted fantasy points allowed to DSTs. Joshua Dobbs will no longer be the Cardinals’ starter and Kyler Murray could start as early as this week. But Murray doesn’t worry me against this defense in his first game back. The Cardinals have been a tougher matchup than expected for a few opponents, and their season-long POA allowed is -1.8 points per game. But over their last five and last three games, that POA allowed is up to +0.3 points. The Browns have the third-highest sack rate, and the eighth-highest pressure rate and interception rate.
They are ranked second in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), a metric created by the Football Outsiders (FO). FO’s basic description of DVOA is that it “breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on several variables including down, distance, location on the field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality.” DVOA aims to measure how successful a defense (or offense) has been compared to what an average defense would do under the same exact circumstances. On the other side of the field, the Cardinals’ offense ranks 19th in offensive DVOA.
Pittsburgh Steelers DST vs. TEN
Yahoo Rostership%: 59%
Vegas Odds: PIT favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 36.5
Implied points against: 16.8
Rookie QB Will Levis threw a bit of concern on this matchup with his surprisingly effective NFL debut in Week 8. But now he has to walk into the home of the “Terrible Towel” and face the Steelers defense on the road. I expect Levis to come back down to earth and show some of the signs of inexperience you would expect from a rookie QB. The Steelers are top-10 in pressure rate, sack rate, and defensive DVOA and are coming off of a three-sack, three-turnover game against a much better opponent in Week 8 (Jaguars). The Titans rank 20th in offensive DVOA so they are a positive matchup by that metric, and the Steelers have been a stellar fantasy DST at home. On the road this season, the Steelers’ DST has averaged 5.3 PPG. At home, that average jumps to 15.5 PPG.
Unlike last year, the off-ball linebackers have not been the problem with the #Steelers defense. Cole Holcomb attacks the play like we all wanted Devin Bush to. pic.twitter.com/Z43FmQHd6P
— Tommy Jaggi (@TommyJaggi) October 30, 2023
Tier 2 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 9
New Orleans Saints DST vs. CHI
Yahoo Rostership%: 67%
Vegas Odds: NO favored by 7
Over/Under (Total Points): 41.5
Implied points against: 17.3
This might be a tad high for the Saints' DST, but they are a solid defense facing the Bears, who rank dead last in adjusted fantasy points allowed to DSTs. The Saints do not sit atop any of the team defensive statistics, but they are ranked eighth in defensive DVOA. They have scored only four fantasy points in each of the last three games against the Texans, Jaguars, and Colts, but the last time they faced an offense as bad as the Bears, they erupted for 24 fantasy points (Patriots in Week 5).
This game is at home and the Bears have a POA allowed of +4.5 points per game on the season. The Bears rank 27th in offensive DVOA (sixth-worst) and have an implied total of only 17.3 points. The Saints should be able to keep the Bears’ score low, and Tyson Bagent has averaged an interception per game in his three games played. The Saints are a high-floor start with the potential for a high ceiling if they can generate some pressure and sacks against the Bears’ 27th-ranked offensive line (according to PFF).
Baltimore Ravens DST vs. SEA
Yahoo Rostership%: 94%
Vegas Odds: BAL favored by 5.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 42.5
Implied points against: 18.5
The Browns have one of the best defenses in the NFL and their DST was unable to generate many fantasy points against the Seahawks, a team currently ranked as the eighth-toughest matchup for DSTs. One of the reasons I am still ranking the Ravens in the top five is because the game is in Baltimore. It is a hostile place for any opposing offense, and Geno Smith has been making some poor decisions and has not had his typical pinpoint accuracy as of late. The Seahawks’ offensive line held up fairly well against the Browns’ defensive front, but I don’t think they can repeat that success against the Ravens with the crowd noise on Baltimore’s side this week.
The Ravens have the fifth-highest sack rate and have allowed a league-low 15.1 (real NFL) PPG, which is why an offense as good (at times) as the Seahawks has an implied total under 20 points (18.5). The icing on the cake leading me to put the Ravens here is that they are currently the top-ranked defense by DVOA.
Roquan Smith has balled out since arriving in Baltimore, and is playing lights-out in 2023
He’s been great in coverage and as a blitzer, is a sure tackler, and has become a major leader on the Ravens’ defense pic.twitter.com/1UjOX02ylq
— Kevin Oestreicher (@koestreicher34) October 20, 2023
Atlanta Falcons DST vs. MIN
Yahoo Rostership%: 33%
Vegas Odds: ATL favored by 4.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 37.5
Implied points against: 16.5
First off, the injury to Kirk Cousins is gut-wrenching. I don’t care who you root for (or against), but the Vikings have had a brutal season, and losing their veteran QB to an Achilles injury is not something I would wish on anyone. The NFL streets are abuzz with projected moves the Vikings might make to bring in another QB and keep their playoff hopes alive. But the likelihood of anything happening by their Week 9 game is low. Nick Mullens is a relatively capable backup, but he cannot come off of IR until next week, leaving rookie QB Jaren Hall as their only option at QB against the Falcons. A rookie QB who in Week 8 took four snaps and lost a fumble on one of them.
The Falcons have been stout against the run this season and are top-10 in pressure rate and interception rate. Their pressure rate just hasn’t resulted in many sacks as they are 25th in sack rate. They also rank 25th in defensive DVOA, which is not good. This ranking is mostly about the matchup with the Vikings while not having a viable option at QB. And like I said, the Falcons have been good against the run, currently ranking in the top 10 in adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs, and will face one of the weaker RB rooms in the NFL against Cam Akers and Alexander Mattison.
Las Vegas Raiders DST vs. NYG
Yahoo Rostership%: 14%
Vegas Odds: LV favored by 6.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 45.5
Implied points against: 19.5
It is difficult to not start the DST in Week 9 facing a Giants team who put on one of the worst offensive displays I have ever seen in Week 8. Just last week I discussed the risks of focusing too much on matchup with this very team, as the Raiders had been a disappointing streaming option (with a good matchup) in Week 7. But this matchup with the 29th-ranked Giants, a team who also ranks dead last in offensive DVOA, is too good to pass up this week, especially with the relatively high number of fantasy-unfriendly DST matchups across the league this week.
Los Angeles Chargers DST @ NYJ
Yahoo Rostership%: 26%
Vegas Odds: LAC favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 41.5
Implied points against: 19.3
The Chargers are another “just okay” defense in a very good matchup with the 26th-ranked Jets (ranked 29th in offensive DVOA). The Chargers' defense has shown signs of life lately with seven sacks and five forced turnovers in their last three games. Even though this game is on the road, they should continue their turnover success against Zach Wilson, a QB coming off of a game against the Giants with a completion rate below 50% and two lost fumbles.
Tier 3 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 9
Dallas Cowboys DST @ PHI
Yahoo Rostership%: 96%
Vegas Odds: PHI favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 46.5
Implied points against: 24.8
Now begins Tier 3, a tier full of good defenses with bad matchups, starting with the Cowboys. Even though they are a road underdog against the Eagles, I am still ranking them ahead of the Eagles for a simple reason. They have a better defense. The Cowboys rank third in defensive DVOA and have shown a propensity for big fantasy days on the back of defensive TDs. Now, banking on defensive TDs in the DST world is a fool’s errand, but if I were going to put money on any team doing it in Week 9, it would be the Cowboys. This will be a physical, grinding game between two teams who hate each other and if the Cowboys are going to pull off the road upset, it will need to be largely due to their defense.
The Dallas Cowboys defense (100 points as of now in ESPN standard scoring) would be the:
QB20
RB4
WR3
TE1#HowBoutThemCowboys— FF Mike Kash (@FFMikeKash) October 29, 2023
Kansas City Chiefs DST vs. MIA
Yahoo Rostership%: 87%
Vegas Odds: KC favored by 2.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 50.5
Implied points against: 24
This Chiefs-Dolphins game is one I circled on my calendar as soon as the NFL schedule was released. There will be plenty of offense, so I am not expecting much in the way of fantasy points from the points allowed category. But the Chiefs are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Broncos. The Chiefs enter Week 9 with the second-highest pressure and sack rate and are ranked fifth in defensive DVOA. They have averaged five sacks per game over the last three. The only reason the Chiefs are not ranked higher is due to the matchup with the Dolphins, who rank 10th (10th-toughest) in adjusted fantasy points allowed and rank first in offensive DVOA.
Philadelphia Eagles DST vs. DAL
Yahoo Rostership%: 98%
Vegas Odds: PHI favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 46.5
Implied points against: 21.8
The Eagles are a home favorite, but as I discussed above, I do slightly prefer the Cowboys’ DST in this matchup. I think the Eagles' defense has been coasting a bit on name value this season. Their defense has not been the elite unit of years past. They are 19th in points allowed per game (21.5) and rank 18th in defensive DVOA. That was the stat that surprised me the most. In an ideal matchup with the 30th-ranked Commanders in Week 8, they scored only three fantasy points. They are a good enough unit to rank higher than 10th in a good matchup, but the Cowboys have been the 12th-toughest matchup for opposing DSTs.
New York Jets DST vs. LAC
Yahoo Rostership%: 92%
Vegas Odds: LAC favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 41.5
Implied points against: 22.3
This one is a bit of a risk as the Jets face the Chargers, currently the toughest matchup for opposing DSTs in adjusted fantasy points allowed. And while allowing only seven receiving yards to the Giants in Week 8 was historic, the ineptitude of the Giants’ passing game does take some of the credit for whatever that was in Week 8.
With only 2 minutes to go, this might be the saddest receiving box score in the history of all the universes pic.twitter.com/g5d0eKaaun
— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) October 29, 2023
But the Jets are at home where they have only given up more than 16 points once this season (to the Chiefs).
New York Giants DST @ LV
Yahoo Rostership%: 9%
Vegas Odds: LV favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 38.5
Implied points against: 20.8
Including the Giants in Tier 3 is mostly based on their matchup with the 28th-ranked Raiders. But the Giants' defense has been on a bit of a hot streak lately, with double-digit fantasy points in three of their last four games (including a game with the Dolphins), 10 sacks, and an average of only 10 points allowed per game over their last two games.
Over the last three weeks, Giants defense in the first half of games is by FAR the best unit in the league. In quarters 1-4 + OT, they are still 2nd in EPA/Play allowed. Unreal stretch they've had. pic.twitter.com/6E8wF5Dt0l
— Justin Penik (@JustinPenik) October 30, 2023
Tier 4 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 9
The Tier 4 defenses are mostly available and there are a few decent streaming options if you’re stuck. Unlike Tier 5, multiple DSTs in Tier 4 are decent plays. However, all the defenses in the previous tiers should be prioritized over these teams. My favorite starts from Tier 4 include the Bengals, a good defense with a bad matchup, and the Vikings, who have been better on defense than they’re given credit for and have a good matchup with the 31st-ranked Falcons.
Tier 5 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 9
These are the defenses that I would not be playing in Week 9 unless you absolutely have to. These units are either going up against a top offense in the league, aren’t a good defense in general, or both. They offer low ceilings and significantly low floors that can hurt your chances of winning your fantasy matchup. Avoid all these choices entirely and try to get a defense in the top two to three tiers for Week 9.
Rest-of-Season Look-Ahead
The following chart shows each fantasy defense’s remaining schedule with each opponent color-coded based on rank in adjusted fantasy points allowed to DSTs. Red and orange indicate tougher matchups while green represents easier matchups. Each opponent’s corresponding number rank can be found on the right side of the chart. Also included are the strength of schedule scores for the rest of the fantasy regular season (Weeks 9-14) and the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-17).
One of my favorite DSTs for ROS that might be available is Pittsburgh (currently 59% rostered). Including Week 9, six of their next seven games are positive matchups against TEN, GB, CLE, ARI, NE, and IND in the first week of the fantasy playoffs. They then face CIN and SEA in Week 16 and 17 so that is where my liking stops. The Falcons are the most widely available DST right now with a solid ROS schedule and great fantasy playoff matchups.
The Falcons’ only negative matchup for the rest of the season is a home game against the Saints in Week 12 (they also still have their bye). Outside of that (which is not the worst matchup), they face MIN without Kirk Cousins this week, ARI, NYJ, TB, and CAR/IND/CHI in the fantasy playoffs.
The other strategy this visual depiction assists with is developing what I like to call a Streaming Action Plan. This is also something I’ll be updating or adding to each week where I present potential action plans for DST streamers over multiple future weeks. Of course, a lot can change (and quickly) in the NFL, but I am constantly utilizing this look-ahead “puzzle piece” strategy so I want to share it with you. Unless otherwise noted, this will always feature DST options that are below a 50% rostership during the current week.
I like to look four to five weeks ahead when strategizing these action plans. Looking at Weeks 9-12, here is a potential DST action plan:
- Week 9: Good streaming options with low rostership: ATL, NE, LV, LAC, NYG.
- Week 10: The rostership for the Seahawks DST (currently at 63%) will likely go down after the Week 9 waivers run. Multiple lesser-rostered DSTs are better options than Seattle in Week 9. They will be one of the top streamers in Week 10 with a home game against the 30th-ranked Commanders. If Seattle is not available, three of the Week 9 streamers listed above would be solid options to hang onto through Week 10. The Falcons face the Cardinals (18th), the Patriots get the Colts (23rd), and the Raiders get the Jets (26th).
- Week 11: Pay attention in your league to what happens with the Lions (currently at 65%). It is a similar situation as the Seahawks this week. The Lions have their bye in Week 9 and then travel to the Chargers in Week 10 (currently the toughest DST matchup). Detroit should be much more widely available as Week 11 approaches, and they get the Bears (32nd) in their dome. With the Lions’ tasty Week 12 matchup, you may consider grabbing them a week early just to secure them for Weeks 11 and 12. The Dolphins are another solid option for Week 11 with a matchup against the 28th-ranked Raiders. Miami plays KC in Week 9 and then has their bye, so they should be on a lot of waiver wires leading into Week 11.
- Week 12: If you can get the Lions for Week 11, then keep the good times rolling in Week 12 as they get another game at home against the Packers. The last time these teams met in Week 4, the Lions had two interceptions and five sacks.
Full D/ST Rankings for Week 9
In addition to going through each of the five DST tiers for Week 9, here is the full list of ranks for all 28 teams playing this week. The chart includes each team’s tier, Week 9 rank, Yahoo rostership, opponent, opponent rank versus the DST position, the over/under, spread, and implied points against.
If you prefer a simple grid, you can check out this chart as well:
| D/ST | Tier | Rank | Ros. | Opp. | Opp. Rank | Over / Under | Spread | Imp. Pts Against |
| Cleveland Browns | 1 | 1 | 70% | ARI | 17th | 37.5 | -7.5 | 15.0 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1 | 2 | 59% | TEN | 21st | 36.5 | -3.0 | 16.8 |
| New Orleans Saints | 2 | 3 | 67% | CHI | 32nd | 41.5 | -7.0 | 17.3 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2 | 4 | 94% | SEA | 8th | 42.5 | -5.5 | 18.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 2 | 5 | 33% | MIN | 19th | 37.5 | -4.5 | 16.5 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2 | 6 | 14% | NYG | 29th | 38.5 | -3.5 | 17.5 |
| LA Chargers | 2 | 7 | 26% | @NYJ | 26th | 41.5 | -3.0 | 19.3 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3 | 8 | 96% | @PHI | 14th | 46.5 | 3.0 | 24.8 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 3 | 9 | 87% | MIA | 10th | 50.5 | -2.5 | 24.0 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | 10 | 98% | DAL | 12th | 46.5 | -3.0 | 21.8 |
| New York Jets | 3 | 11 | 92% | LAC | 1st | 41.5 | 3.0 | 22.3 |
| New York Giants | 3 | 12 | 6% | @LV | 28th | 38.5 | 3.0 | 20.8 |
| New England Pats | 4 | 13 | 27% | WAS | 30th | 39.5 | -3.0 | 18.3 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 4 | 14 | 26% | BUF | 3rd | 48.5 | -3.0 | 22.8 |
| Buffalo Bills | 4 | 15 | 98% | @CIN | 7th | 48.5 | 3.0 | 25.8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 4 | 16 | 9% | @ATL | 31st | 37.5 | 4.5 | 21.0 |
| Commanders | 4 | 17 | 27% | @NE | 27th | 39.5 | 3.0 | 21.3 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 4 | 18 | 63% | @BAL | 6th | 42.5 | 5.5 | 24.0 |
| Miami Dolphins | 4 | 19 | 70% | @KC | 11th | 50.5 | 2.5 | 26.5 |
| Houston Texans | 4 | 20 | 10% | TB | 16th | 40.0 | -3 | 18.5 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 4 | 21 | 8% | @CAR | 20th | 44.5 | -3.0 | 20.8 |
| Green Bay Packers | 4 | 22 | 18% | LAR | 15th | 39.5 | -3.0 | 18.3 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 4 | 23 | 17% | @GB | 25th | 39.5 | 3.0 | 21.3 |
| Tampa Bay Bucs | 5 | 24 | 32% | @HOU | 2nd | 40.0 | 3.0 | 21.5 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 5 | 25 | 1% | @CLE | 22nd | 37.5 | 7.5 | 22.5 |
| Chicago Bears | 5 | 26 | 2% | @NO | 9th | 41.5 | 7.0 | 24.3 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5 | 27 | 5% | IND | 23rd | 44.5 | 3.0 | 23.8 |
| Tennessee Titans | 5 | 28 | 2% | @PIT | 18th | 36.5 | 3.0 | 19.8 |
Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on X (@MunderDifflinFF).
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