RADIO
As the games concluded on Sunday, I was sure I had a terrible week. The Saints hadn't performed against the Giants, the Bengals fell short against the Jaguars, the Titans somehow lost to the Jets, and Washington laid yet another egg against a beatable offense. Yet, when I checked the Fantasypros DST rankings on Monday afternoon, I saw that I actually had six of the top-ten defenses right this week, including Washington. I was surprised since, despite getting beat up, they managed to score a defensive touchdown to finish 10th (prior to the Monday night games). This serves as a good reminder (as I discuss below) that yards and points allowed aren't the only things that determine a valuable fantasy defense.
However, the mediocre week is an important reminder that we need to always be willing to change our evaluation of teams as we get more information. This was Washington's fourth poor performance on the season, and I may need to give up my hope in them as a solid defense. However, this was also Carolina's first game against a top-tier offense and they finished dead last in the Week 4 leaderboard, so maybe those first few weeks were a bit of a fluke. We can never be too precious with our takes or too proud to admit when we get one wrong.
Also, please use the Titans as a final reminder to not raise a bad defense too high based on a good matchup. I thought the Titans pass rush could mask some issues in their secondary, but I was wrong. As usual, bad defenses will find a way to not score fantasy points, regardless of who the opponent is.
Editor's Note: Be sure to also read our other Week 5 waiver wire articles for even more in-depth waiver wire analysis on running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, kickers, recommended FAB waiver wire bids, and players to consider dropping.
Picking The Right Defenses
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below. However, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. Last season, NFL offenses gained 359 yards per game and scored 12,692 points or 24.8 points per game, which is the most in the Super Bowl era.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Week 5 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
New this year: BOD (Best Overall Defense) Rankings. This is my defensive rankings formula based on the stats that I think are most conducive to fantasy success. You can see the full leaderboard and formula explanation here. It's important to clarify that the BOD rankings ARE NOT to be treated as weekly rankings and also have nothing to do with the physical attractiveness of each team. BOD is meant to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Tier 1 Defenses
Did you just see what the Bills did to the Texans? Yeah, of course, I have the Patriots this high. I'm not sure if Tom Brady was trying to take it easy on his old organization, was hampered by the rain, or was simply confused by the Patriots defense, but the veteran looked bad in New England on Sunday night. Perhaps I need to give the Patriots more credit. Regardless, this is a team had the 8th best BOD before facing the Bucs offense and is now going up against a rookie quarterback in Davis Mills who looked totally flustered on Sunday. I expect Bill Belichick to draw up pressure, forcing Mills into turnovers, much like the Bills did en route to four turnovers and only 109 total yards allowed. Yes, the Texans only put up 109 total yards last week. Until Tyrod Taylor gets back, this is the worst offense in football and we need to rank defenses accordingly.
Tier one is tiny this week, but yes, I'm still attacking this Pittsburgh offense. Ben Roethlisberger is a shell of himself, and this is simply not a good team. We need to remove our past memories of the gold and black and look at what the team is now: a trio of talented but banged-up wide receivers being thrown to by a below-average quarterback behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. That's not a recipe for success against a Broncos team that currently has the 5th best BOD. Denver is a stingy defense that is 6th in rushing yards allowed, 3rd in total yards allowed per play, and also 9th in sacks. The Steelers are 21st in sacks allowed despite building a whole quick-release system around their immobile quarterback. I expect this to be an ugly game that features a few turnovers, a handful of sacks, and two strong fantasy performances by each defense.
Tier 2 Defenses
I mentioned above that I think this is going to be an ugly slugfest, which means the Steelers will benefit too. Denver has been a pretty solid offense with Teddy Bridgewater under center, but the veteran suffered a concussion last week and appears unlikely to play this upcoming weekend. Drew Lock is simply not the same quarterback, often taking unnecessary chances which leads to more turnovers and sacks. Perhaps more importantly, the Broncos were down two starting offensive linemen on Sunday, which allowed the Ravens to notch five sacks and force a turnover. The Ravens were, similar to the Steelers, a once-great defense that had gotten off a slow start. Yet they still finished this week 2nd overall in defensive scoring. The Steelers are still 5th in the NFL in pressure rate, so I expect them to have a similarly strong week against the banged-up Broncos.
Perhaps the aforementioned Ravens are back? Who's to say, but I do think this is too talented a defense to perform the way they did early on. Also, we maybe need to give them a break after starting the season against the Raiders and Chiefs, who appear to have two of the better offenses in the conference. As a result, the Ravens' stats aren't overly impressive, but they're moving up the BOD rankings. They still play an aggressive style of defense, are 3rd in the NFL in pressure rate, and remain stingy against the run, which is important since that's what the Colts want to do. If the Ravens are able to control Jonathan Taylor, it will force immobile and injured Carson Wentz to throw behind his similarly injured offensive line against a defense that gets this much pressure. This is not the same Colts team that we saw last year, and I fully expect the Ravens to win this one handily.
Part of me really wants to put the Bucs higher since the Dolphins currently allow the 3rd-most points to opposing defenses, but we can't overlook the mounting injuries in the Bucs' secondary. Already down two cornerbacks before Sunday night's game, the Bucs also lost Carlton Davis, their top corner, and Antoine Winfield Jr, their best safety, to injuries. Winfield is in the concussion protocol and Davis seems likely to miss "a while" with a quad injury, so this now becomes a very beatable secondary. The run defense will still be stout and the Dolphins don't pose a massive threat through the air, but Jaylen Waddle and DeVante Parker can absolutely beat reserve NFL cornerbacks. While I think the Bucs are a strong play this week, I'm not as optimistic as I was before they suited up against the Patriots.
We're going to give the Panthers another chance, but you'll notice from my confidence rankings that this is a pretty tightly packed section of the rankings. The Panthers were the top BOD coming into last week, but we knew the Dallas game would be a challenge. However, we didn't know the Panthers would be so thoroughly worked over. Things will get a little easier on Sunday. Despite the presence of Jalen Hurts, this is an Eagles team that is down FOUR starting offensive linemen and has yet to really have any of their young pass-catchers establish himself as a go-to option in the passing game. Considering the Panthers are 2nd in the league in sacks and 1st in the league in pressure rate, I expect them to capitalize on the Eagles' beat-up offensive line more than the Chiefs did. Jalen Hurts will still get his yards, and maybe some points, but I expect there to be some sacks and a turnover or two to go with it.
The Cowboys took on a solid Panthers offense and were able to finish as the 5th-ranked defense during Week 4, which backs up my growing belief that this is a solid fantasy unit. Yes, the Panthers didn't have Christian McCaffrey (which was why I had the Cowboys as a top-10 unit last week), but let's not take anything away from a Cowboys team that leads the NFL in percent of offensive drives that end in a defensive turnover. They're the perfect example of a team that can give up lots of yards but still be valuable in fantasy due to turnovers and sacks. Now they get to face a Giants team that might be better than we anticipated but still has a truly mediocre offensive line. Daniel Jones has started to come into his own a bit and the Giants were able to prevent New Orleans from being the elite defensive play we expected in Week 4, but I still believe that this Cowboys team is better positioned for success. The Giants don't have the defense to stop Dak Prescott and company, which will lead to far more points than New Orleans was able to put up, which will force the Giants to take more chances and lead to, in my opinion, more turnovers. Don't be afraid to play the Cowboys.
I know the Raiders lost that game on Monday night, but I remain very impressed by their defense. Gus Bradley has coordinated strong defensive units before, and he's clearly building another one in Las Vegas. They have hung with two solid offenses in the Chargers and Ravens and taken advantage of two below-average ones in the Dolphins and Steelers. Now, they take on another below-average one in the Bears, who allow the 7th-most points to opposing defenses and are ranked 30th in the NFL in sacks allowed. I think the Raiders pass rush can absolutely make quick work of this shoddy offensive line and get to whoever is playing quarterback, which is a joke in and of itself. The idea that Matt Nagy could claim Andy Dalton has a chance to start on Sunday and is still the team's starting quarterback just shows the cluelessness of this team and is another reason why I'm looking to attack them with the Raiders defense.
This ranking is more about confidence in the Cardinals' defense than anything. They're 3rd in BOD rankings and just had a solid week against the Rams, finishing as the 12th overall defense in Week 4, which is an accomplishment considering what the Rams had been doing to people. Now the Cardinals will get a much less explosive 49ers offense that will have a rookie quarterback under center. I like Trey Lance and expect good things from him this season, but I also expect a great career from Trevor Lawrence and strong work from Justin Fields, and we've seen them both play poorly at times this season. This is how it goes with rookie quarterbacks who are adjusting to the NFL. The Cardinals are top-five in blitz rate, so I expect them to throw a lot of wrinkles at Lance, which will lead to some miscues and takeaway opportunities.
Well, the Saints let us down against the Giants, but I'm prepared to go back to them against Washington this week. They're just inside the top-10, so I'm clearly not too excited by them. However, I still think this is a solid defensive unit that has the 9th best BOD on the season. They have almost no pass rush to speak of, but they are stout against the run and are 5th in the NFL in offensive drives that end in a defensive turnover. I like that considering Washington is 22nd in the NFL in total offensive turnovers. Taylor Heinicke is a fine quarterback, but he also had three interceptions in his first two starts before lighting up a really bad Atlanta defense. I think this will be a much stiffer test and with Marshon Lattimore covering Terry McLaurin, the Saints are going to make it hard for Heinicke to count on his star receiver. As a result, I expect Washington's offense to stumble a bit here and allow the Saints to push for a top-10 performance.
Tier 3 Defenses
This Minnesota defense is a bit of an anomaly. They've shown flashes against some top offenses and are 5th in the league in sacks, but they are also 28th in percentage of offensive drives ending in a turnover and 27th in yards allowed per play. They tend to play high-scoring games and take advantage of teams needing to pass to keep up with their strong offense, which is exactly what I think happens this week. The Lions have been feistier than expected on offense, but they are also 22nd in the NFL in sacks allowed, and I really don't trust Jared Goff to beat anybody through the air. The Lions also don't turn the ball over much because they primarily throw short routes to their running backs or tight ends, which is why they only allow the 10th-most points to opposing defenses and not higher, as many would have expected. This will limit the Vikings' already suspect ability to create turnovers. As a result, I think the Vikings are a solid play but they lack the ceiling of some of the other options on the slate.
The Packers have come into their own a bit as a defense of late, climbing to 12th in the BOD rankings. A lot of that has been on the back of turnovers, as the Packers defense is now 7th in the NFL in percent of drives that end in an offensive turnover. That's a good thing because they really don't get after the quarterback that well and are only mediocre against the run. Good thing for them they're going to get a Bengals team without Joe Mixon. Yes, Tee Higgins will likely be back, but the Bengals will become a one-dimensional offense without Mixon, which will make them easier to scheme against. I expect Jaire Alexander to limit Joe Burrow to half of the field, which could lead to some throws into traffic. We also can't forget that the Bengals have a brutal offensive line that is 23rd in sacks allowed, which means that, even though the Packers don't have a great pass rush, they should be able to notch a few sacks against a team that will have very little running game to worry about.
This Chargers and Browns game should be an interesting one. I think both defenses are particularly strong, and I was impressed with the way the Chargers basically manhandled the Raiders in the first half. I don't LOVE the matchup for these defenses, but it's also not off-limits either. At the end of the day, I think this game is less of the shootout that people are anticipating. The Browns are likely to try and control the clock on the ground and keep the ball out of Baker Mayfield's hands too much since he looked rough on Sunday. The Chargers will continue to run their offense as usual and can attack a hit-or-miss Browns secondary, which is why I'm a bit more bullish on the Chargers here. I expect this game to be pretty quick, which will lead to fewer points allowed and more opportunities for a handful of sacks and/or turnovers to go a long way in regards to fantasy point totals. Overall, I expect both of these defenses to come in around 5-6 total points, which won't hurt your team, but won't help win you a week and will keep them out of the top 10.
I said I was no longer buying into the Washington defense, but I also don't think having them 15th is truly buying in. They're here because I just don't like the Saints' offense, but we also have to realize that the Saints give up the 28th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses, which makes them 5th-best in the league. It may not be an exciting offense, but they control the clock and don't take chances, which limits the ability of opposing defenses to make many plays and puts a hard cap on their fantasy ceiling. That's a major reason why I can't move Washington up into the top-10. That and I feel like a jilted lover with the number of times they've let me down this year.
Look, you can move Tennessee higher if you want, but I will stand by the idea that I don't elevate bad defenses just because of a good matchup. Tennessee scored 3 points according to FantasyPros scoring last week and finished tied for 17th while losing a game to the Jets. I'm not sure why people are so ready to go back to the well against a Jaguars offense that might actually be slightly better than the Jets offense. I'll do it if I have to, but it's really not for me.
Tier 4 Defenses
Why do we have the Falcons defense in the top-10? They have been awful against every team they've played. The Titans just scored 3 fantasy points against the Jets. Why do we think the Falcons will do better?
The Bears, Rams, and Bills are all defenses I like, but I just can't get behind them in these matchups. The Eagles are a bit interesting against the Christian McCaffrey-less Panthers, but I was impressed with Sam Darnold again, so I'm going to stay away.
Tier 5 Defenses
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