Week 4 Fantasy Football Matchups We Love: The Fantasy Matchmaker

Welcome to Week 4 of my weekly article series for RotoBaller, The Fantasy Matchmaker. In this series, I will be looking at fantasy football matchups as each week of the 2023 NFL season approaches and giving you some players whose matchups I love, to the point it probably bumps them up higher for me than where that week’s positional ranking has them.

The common method for analyzing fantasy football matchups and the strength of opponents is by fantasy points allowed. How many fantasy points has that opponent been allowing to that position on average? This is something I track weekly but I take it a bit further as only looking at raw fantasy points allowed per game does not tell the whole story. Once a new season is a few weeks in, we can start using that season’s fantasy points allowed data to predict future matchup strength. My strength of schedule scoring entering Week 4 includes what each team has given up in Weeks 1-3 (including the average). This is also the point when I begin to incorporate “opponent-adjusted” data, looking at what teams are giving up compared to both the league average and what that opponent scores on average at each position.

RotoBaller generates an overall Top 375 player rankings (all positions) for Points Per Reception (PPR), half PPR, and Standard (no PPR) each week. As I show matchups for each position, I will break that Top 375 list down further into rankings within each position (e.g., QB1, QB2, QB3, RB1, RB2, RB3, etc.). The idea is to show each relevant skill position player’s matchup and positional rank for that week. Each table will be filtered based on the positional rankings. I encourage you to check out the RotoBaller Week 4 rankings. I will also sign off with my “Postmortems,” looking back across each position at my Week 3 loves and “not great, Bobs” to see how I did.

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Fantasy Football Quarterback Matchups

The following shows the projected matchup strength for the QB position in Week 4. The table includes the QB, the QB Week 4 positional rank (according to RotoBaller), the opponent, and the opponent’s projected rank versus fantasy QBs according to my scoring system. The table is filtered in the same order as the RotoBaller positional rankings.

The additional data points I am including for QBs are the projected point totals in each game, the spread, and the implied total points for the QB’s team (all from FanDuel.com).

Week 4: QB Matchups We Love

Daniel Jones (QB12): It’s been an up-and-down season for Jones so far, with two games under 10 fantasy points (Week 1 and 3) and one week as the overall QB1 (31.7 points in Week 2). From a schedule perspective, his success and lack thereof have lined up with the matchup strength he’s faced. In Week 1, Jones scored only 6.5 fantasy points against the Cowboys, who are currently the third-toughest QB matchup. In Week 2, Jones led all QBs with 31.7 fantasy points against the Cardinals, currently the second-easiest QB matchup. Then Jones was stymied again in Week 3 against the seventh-ranked 49ers. Why is such a volatile QB on this list you might ask? Well, if this pattern holds then Jones should be in for a solid day against the 22^nd-ranked Seahawks. Seattle has been a WR-friendly matchup in all three games so far, as they are one of only two teams to have given up 200+ WR receiving yards each week (the other team being the Titans).

Per game stats allowed to the WR position so far (not including MNF games). Filtered by WR receiving yards allowed per game, highest to lowest.

Seahawks and Titans only teams that have given up 200+ yards to the WR position in all three games.
Chargers: 375, 190, 242 pic.twitter.com/5e7p4UOoRy

— Scott Rinear (@MunderDifflinFF) September 26, 2023

And while Jones has a dismal TD-INT ratio of 0.5 (two TDs to four INTs) and has only exceeded 200 passing yards once, he has gotten it done on the ground, averaging eight carries for 35.7 yards per game. The Seahawks have struggled to put pressure on opposing QBs, with a seventh-lowest 22.1% pressure rate. Jones will thrive with more time in the pocket, and even when pressure arrives, those extra seconds will allow Jones to do some damage on the ground.

Jimmy Garoppolo (QB21): This is a deeper call as Garoppolo falls in that group of the last starting QBs drafted in Super Flex leagues. It is more likely that if you roster the Raiders’ QB, he is your QB3 and I understand the hesitancy to start him. But you cannot ask for a better matchup for QBs than the Chargers right now. Garoppolo currently sits at QB16 on the season with 15.4 points per game. But outside of his Week 2 game against the second-ranked Bills, Garoppolo has exceeded 15 fantasy points, including a 20.7-point game in Week 3 versus the 13^th-ranked Steelers. He has averaged just over 30 pass attempts per game, which is not fantastic, but he has completed 68% of his passes on the season. He threw 44 passes for over 300 yards against the Steelers, and I envision a similar pass-heavy game script against the Chargers. With Davante Adams doing Davante Adams things and a healthy Jakobi Meyers, I think Garoppolo easily exceeds his QB21 rank in Week 4.

 

Week 4: Not Great, Bob – QBs to Avoid

Dak Prescott (QB18): You have probably noticed that some of my takes are based on my confidence a player either will exceed or fall below their positional rank for the week. But that is not always the case. RotoBaller has Prescott at QB18 for Week 4, which is already a borderline starter in two-QB formats. His rank is already telling you to avoid him, especially as your QB1. Prescott faces the Patriots in Week 4, the fifth-toughest QB matchup according to my Strength of Schedule (SOS) scoring. The Cowboys’ signal-caller enters Week 4 as the QB25 on the season at only 13.8 PPG. Part of the reason for that has been game script. Week 1 and 2 were such blowouts for the Cowboys that Dak did not need to sling the ball all over the field. Everything looked good heading into Week 3 with a juicy matchup with the Cardinals. But you know this as Prescott made the “Matchups I Love” list last week (miss). Inexplicably, the Cowboys found themselves in a negative game script against the Cardinals, the most surprising result since the Jets somehow beat the Bills in Week 1. A negative game script against a soft QB matchup should have led to a high-scoring day. Prescott managed only 15.4 fantasy points in the loss, which is a big reason why I am fading him this week in a much tougher matchup.

Baker Mayfield (QB24): Mayfield has been surprisingly decent so far in 2023, with fantasy outings of 16 and 18.4 points in Weeks 1 and 2. He is currently the QB17, one spot ahead of Justin Fields and three spots ahead of Trevor Lawrence (it’s been a weird season so far). In Week 4 he gets the sixth-ranked Saints. New Orleans hasn’t exactly faced a QB gauntlet so far with games against the Titans, Panthers, and Packers, but their level of success against opposing QBs should not be ignored solely based on strength of opponent. The Saints have allowed only a 54.1% completion rate and 203.3 passing yards per game, and have only surrendered two passing TDs all year. Yes, the QBs they have shut down have been mediocre, but so is Baker Mayfield, so I expect more of the same and a fantasy day for Mayfield right around his QB24 positional rank.

 

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Matchups

The following WR table shows the Top 80 WRs for Week 4 (according to RotoBaller; half-PPR, opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy WRs.

 

Week 4: WR Matchups We Love

Jakobi Meyers (WR19): For starters, you can look above to my discussion about Jimmy Garoppolo. The Chargers are currently the easiest matchup for QBs and the 24^th-ranked matchup for WRs. Meyers missed Week 2 after suffering a concussion in Week 1, but in the two games he’s played, he has averaged eight catches on 11 targets and 83 receiving yards. In Week 1 Meyers’ target share was 38.5%, fourth-highest on the week and 0.9% higher than teammate Davante Adams. Then he picked up where he left off in Week 3 with a target share of 27.3%. Now, that was the 18^th-highest of the week, but remember how I have discussed the context behind the single statistic of target share. That 27.3% target share, due to the Raiders’ high pass volume against the Steelers, equated to 12 targets, tied for fifth-highest in Week 3. Why the Patriots let Meyers go and brought in JuJu Smith-Schuster instead I will never understand, but Meyers is a borderline must-start in PPR formats and I see a big day ahead against the Chargers.

In two games with both Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, 87.6% of the 1st reads have gone to one of them.

The entire passing offense is focused around these two.

Jakobi Meyers is getting looked at an elite rate with the 4th most expected fantasy points per game amongst WRs.

— Dalton Kates (@Dalton_Kates) September 26, 2023

Tutu Atwell (WR36): Tutu Atwell has gone from a forgotten rookie who was too small, to a post-hype sleeper, to a solid fantasy asset. Operating in Puka Nacua’s shadow, Atwell has been consistently involved in the Rams’ passing attack with a 21.5% target share on the season. He has averaged just under nine targets and 82 receiving yards per game with a 94% route participation. Until Cooper Kupp returns from his hamstring injury, Atwell should continue to be heavily involved both in the slot (41.2% slot rate) and on the outside. Atwell and the Rams get the 30^th-ranked Colts in Week 4 in a dome and I think Atwell finishes closer to a low-end WR2 than his current low-end WR3 positional rank.

 

Week 4: Not Great, Bob – WRs to Avoid

Garrett Wilson (WR27): What a difference a QB makes. A positional rank of WR27 makes me sad as a big believer in Wilson’s talent and what could have been with Aaron Rodgers. But the rank as a WR3 is appropriate in Wilson’s case. Zach Wilson is not an NFL QB. I could provide some statistics to back that up (he was 18 for 36 in Week 3) but I don’t think I need to. The Jets might still make a move at QB, as veteran backup Trevor Siemian was signed, but nothing will make Garrett Wilson a good start in Week 4. The Jets face the Chiefs, currently the fourth-toughest matchup for WRs and the eighth-toughest matchup for QBs. There is a path to a startable week for Wilson as this should be a negative game script for the Jets and Wilson will easily be the best pass-catcher on the field aside from Travis Kelce. Great players can find ways to still be great in adverse conditions. But I just don’t think Zach Wilson is good enough to facilitate that possibility versus a Chiefs defense with the fifth-highest pressure rate and fourth-highest turnover rate in the NFL.

Gabe Davis (WR24): I am a known fader of Gabe Davis. Thus far in 2023, there has not been a compelling need to discuss him as his draft price was low enough to be reasonable and expectations were not high. However, I cannot ignore him when ranked as the WR24, which I think is too high. Davis caught a 35-yard TD pass in Week 3. That is pretty exciting except that it was his only catch on four targets. Davis had a solid Week 2 with an impressive stat line of six catches on seven targets for 92 yards and a TD. But that came against the 24^th-ranked Raiders and it should be apparent by now that is not a typical day for Davis. On the season, Davis sits at a 14.2% target share and a targets per route run of only 0.13, one of the lowest in the league among WRs who run as many routes as Davis. This is his game. A flashy TD now and then with a lot of in-game conditioning filling in the gaps. There is the potential for a shoot-out with the Dolphins as the over-under of 53.5 points is the highest of Week 4. This could force Davis into a good day and I assume is a major factor in his positional rank, but Miami is my 12^th-ranked WR matchup right now and I am avoiding Davis.

 

Fantasy Football Running Back Matchups

The following RB table shows the Top 60 RBs for Week 4 (according to RotoBaller; half-PPR), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy RBs.

 

Week 4: RB Matchups We Love

Roschon Johnson (RB36): We all saw what RBs did to the Broncos defense in Week 3. I currently have the Broncos as the sixth-easiest RB matchup.

Side note: This is a good example of why I do not use raw fantasy points allowed to calculate my matchup ranks. If I did, the Broncos would be the easiest matchup, and would not be able to climb out of that basement for the rest of the season. The Broncos surrendered 103.1 fantasy points to the RB position against the Dolphins. That is an almost incomprehensible number. That will skew their per-game raw fantasy points allowed to RBs for the rest of the season.

Regardless of that brief window into my process, the Broncos are a fantastic RB matchup. Johnson technically got the start in Week 3, but Khalil Herbert did end up out-touching him. Johnson is flying under the radar somewhat with De’Von Achane’s explosion and the current state of things with the Bears offense. Johnson’s snap share and rush attempts, while still relatively low, have increased each week, and he’s averaging 5.3 yards per rush attempt so far. With the Bears’ season on the verge of already being over, I think Johnson will take over as the lead back starting in Week 4.

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB17): Gibbs gets the Packers in Week 4, currently the 25^th-ranked matchup for RBs. Another side note: I will be introducing another positional matchup ranking data set in Week 5. I track RB fantasy points from receiving output (PFR) and will be releasing matchup ranks based on PFR allowed to RBs. This is a metric I have tracked, ranked, and released for the last two years and I have found that it needs a minimum of four weeks of data before I am ready to rely on it and advise others to rely on it. However, as a little teaser, in my preliminary ranks based on the first three weeks, the Packers are the fourth-easiest matchup for pass-catching RBs. Gibbs’ snap share has steadily increased and hit 60% in Week 3. Yes, I know that is largely influenced by David Montgomery’s absence, but Gibbs has looked great. Montgomery is looking like he will return in Week 4 but I am still starting Gibbs with confidence in a divisional game against a good matchup for RBs (and pass-catching RBs).

RBs with 10%+ of their runs going 15+ yards

De'Von Achane
Jahmyr Gibbs
Najee Harris
James Conner

Most Explosive RBs in the league so far

— Alex Caruso (@AlexCaruso) September 27, 2023

 

Week 4: Not Great Bob, RBs to Avoid

Ezekiel Elliott (RB41): No, this will not be a revenge game for Elliott. RotoBaller has this right, so this isn’t a situation where I think he’s ranked too high. It is more to join forces with the RB41 rank and advise against the temptation to start Elliott in Week 4. Elliott was a popular waiver add this week after rushing for 80 yards on 16 attempts in Week 3 against the Eagles. Rhamondre Stevenson finished the day with three more carries than Elliott and four targets but was less efficient with only 62 yards from scrimmage. Let’s be clear, this is not a situation where Elliott is taking over in any way. Even with the 16 carries, Elliott was on the field for only 38% of the snaps, and mostly toward the end of the game, while Stevenson’s snap share was at 65%. That type of split should continue and I predict Elliott goes back to the 5-10 touches per game he averaged over the first two weeks. That combined with a matchup with the top-ranked Cowboys’ has me steering clear.

Rachaad White (RB29): White is another example of an appropriate positional rank at RB29, but it’s a matchup I am avoiding. The Saints are the eighth-toughest RB matchup on the season. They’ve allowed an average of 70.7 rushing yards and 4.2 yards per carry, no team has rushed for 100 yards on them, and they haven’t given up a TD to an RB yet. That includes Derrick Henry in Week 1 and Miles Sanders in Week 2. The Saints have given up 4.3 receptions for 41.3 yards per game to RBs so White could find some success in the passing game, but this feels like a game where he’ll need a TD to salvage a rough day. And with this game tied for the lowest over-under on the week (40.5 points) and the Buccaneers' implied team total only at 17.3 points, the odds of White scoring a TD are low.

 

Fantasy Football Tight End Matchups

The following TE table shows the Top 40 TEs for Week 4 (according to RotoBaller; half-PPR), opponent, and opponent rank versus fantasy TEs.

 

Week 4: TE Matchups We Love

Gerald Everett (TE17): This year’s early candidate for TD Vulture is Gerald Everett’s fellow TE, Donald Parham Jr., who has three TD receptions on only seven targets. In the TE wasteland that is the 2023 season, Everett is currently the TE10 with 9 PPG. After seeing only three targets in each of the first two games, Everett saw six in Week 3, catching each for a total of 30 yards. Not eye-popping, I know. But six catches for a TE is something you will take right now. And I think he becomes even more involved following the season-ending injury to WR Mike Williams. Add to that a Week 4 matchup with the 28^th-ranked Raiders in a game with a 47.5 over-under, and Everett should exceed his TE17 positional rank in Week 4.

Thinking out loud.

The Chargers have shown an equal willingness to play Gerald Everett and Donald Parham. I wonder if a potential solution to Mike Williams absence is shifting to more 12 personnel and utilizing Everett as a slot option.

— Jeff Bell (@4WhomJBellTolls) September 27, 2023

Dalton Kincaid (TE11): Matchup strength can be pivotal. Kincaid was a TE I avoided last week (hit) but I love his matchup in Week 4. The Dolphins are currently the friendliest TE matchup according to my fantasy SOS. They shut the Broncos down in Week 3 (do they even have a TE?) but gave up a combined 127 receiving yards and two TDs to the position in Weeks 1 and 2. Kincaid’s snap share has decreased over the last two games after the rookie TE hit 80% in Week 1. I am not reading too much into that as the Bills have won the last two games by a combined score of 75-13. Everyone is bracing for fireworks with this crucial AFC East showdown, as early jockeying for the division and a potential one-seed are on the line. Even with two good defenses, this should be a high-scoring game according to the Vegas oddsmakers, and Kincaid will be a part of it. I see his first NFL TD in the tea leaves.E10): Outside of a receiving TD in Week 1, it has been a horrendous start to the season for Freiermuth (and the entire Steelers offense, really). Freiermuth has only two catches on five targets on the season. The definition of “Not Great, Bob.” But he has also faced two of the Top 5 toughest TE matchups in the 49ers and the Browns. This week he gets the Raiders, the second-easiest TE matchup. While his yardage might not push him into TE1 territory this week, I do think he finds the end zone at least once.

 

Week 4: Not Great Bob, TEs to Avoid

David Njoku (TE16): Njoku gets the toughest TE matchup against the Ravens in Week 4. If that was not enough, Njoku is a TE I’ll be avoiding regardless of matchup moving forward.

During draft season, Njoku commonly represented a tier break. Whether he was at the end of the higher tier or the front of the lower tier was in the eye of the beholder, but sitting at TE28 after three weeks is a massive disappointment. Njoku has yet to hit seven PPR fantasy points or top-four targets in any given week, and that is with a snap share close to 80% on the season. The Browns are at a 55%-45% pass-run ratio, which is not considered pass-heavy but is not run-heavy enough to account for Njoku’s disappointing start. Deshaun Watson has not played well which has contributed, but Njoku’s peripheral stats have been atrocious. He currently ranks 27^th in TE target share, and, among TEs who have run at least 30 routes, he ranks 38^th in targets per route run (TPRR). These combinations are not good and have predictability in the wrong direction for fantasy purposes. A pass catcher with a high snap share who runs a lot of routes, but is near the bottom in TPRR typically does not earn significantly more targets just like that.

Dallas Goedert (TE13): Based on where you drafted Goedert it is likely difficult to bench him. But he faces what has been a brutal TE matchup in the Commanders. The Commanders’ matchup rank versus fantasy TEs is a little misleading. They are currently ranked 15^th, right in the middle of the pack, but this early in the season, the eight TE receptions they allowed in Week 1 are enough to keep them out of the Top 10 (in PPR). Over their last two games, the Commanders have given up three TE receptions on five targets, for 14 receiving yards (no TDs). Granted, that included the Broncos (again, do they even have a TE?), but what else could they have done (zero catches on one target)? They held Kincaid and Dawson Knox to 14 yards on three catches. I will admit that may have been skewed by the same logic I discussed above about Kincaid’s quiet Week 3, but if a positive game script (and less passing volume allowed) is part of how the Commanders limit TE production then that likely won’t change in a game against the Eagles.

After Goedert’s goose egg in Week 1, he has seen seven targets in each of the last two games so this call could backfire, but WRs have had much more success against the Commanders. Plus, after a 56.9% pass rate in Week 1, the Eagles’ pass rate over the last two games has been 32.4% and 50%, respectively. Combined with the matchup, I am not confident starting Goedert in Week 4.

 

Fantasy Football DST Matchups

I am excited to announce I will be writing a second article series for RotoBaller focusing solely on weekly DST matchups. Join me there, it will be fun!

 

Last Week's Postmortems

I am fine with being wrong about things, especially when it comes to fantasy football, where most of us are wrong more often than we are right. So, each new week, I will include a post-mortem of the previous week’s likes and dislikes. I will subjectively judge myself based on the results of the previous week, with my take either being a “HIT” or a “MISS,” or in some cases a “PUSH.”

Week 3 QB Matchups I Loved

Dak Prescott

• Week 3 RotoBaller Rank: QB13
• Week 3 Matchup: ARI (Rank: 32^nd)
• Week 3 Finish: QB19 (15.4 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Desmond Ridder

• Week 3 RotoBaller Rank: QB25
• Week 3 Matchup: DET (Rank: 30^th)
• Week 3 Finish: QB30 (6.3 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 3 QB Matchups I Avoided

Justin Fields

• Week 3 RotoBaller Rank: QB10
• Week 3 Matchup: KC (Rank: 6^th)
• Week 3 Finish: QB24 (11.7 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Geno Smith

• Week 3 RotoBaller Rank: QB16
• Week 3 Matchup: CAR (Rank: 5^th)
• Week 3 Finish: QB17 (16.4 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Week 3 QB Hit Rate: 50% (2-2)

Week 3 WR Matchups I Loved

Amari Cooper

• Week 3 RotoBaller Rank: WR19
• Week 3 Matchup: TEN (Rank: 32^nd)
• Week 3 Finish: WR9 (21.1 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Drake London

• Week 3 RotoBaller Rank: WR32
• Week 3 Matchup: DET (Rank: 25^th)
• Week 3 Finish: WR79 (4.1 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 3 WR Matchups I Avoided

DeAndre Hopkins

• Week 3 RotoBaller Rank: QB25
• Week 3 Matchup: CLE (Rank: 4^th)
• Week 3 Finish: WR59 (6.3 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Marquise Brown

• Week 3 RotoBaller Rank: WR42
• Week 3 Matchup: CAR (Rank: 5^th)
• Week 3 Finish: WR19 (14.6 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 3 WR Hit Rate: 50% (2-2)

Week 3 RB Matchups I Loved

Isiah Pacheco

• Week 3 RotoBaller Rank: RB16
• Week 3 Matchup: CHI (Rank: 28^th)
• Week 3 Finish: RB11 (14.8 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Joshua Kelley

• Week 3 RotoBaller Rank: RB14
• Week 3 Matchup: MIN (Rank: 30^th)
• Week 3 Finish: RB61 (2.2 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 3 RB Matchups I Avoided

Brian Robinson Jr.

• Week 3 RotoBaller Rank: RB14
• Week 3 Matchup: BUF (Rank: 4^th)
• Week 3 Finish: RB29 (7.0 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Jerome Ford

• Week 3 RotoBaller Rank: WR42
• Week 3 Matchup: TEN (Rank: 3^rd)
• Week 3 Finish: RB7 (18.1 points)
• Verdict: MISS

Week 3 RB Hit Rate: 50% (2-2)

Week 3 TE Matchups I Loved

Pat Freiermuth

• Week 3 RotoBaller Rank: TE10
• Week 3 Matchup: LV (Rank: 31^st)
• Week 3 Finish: TE8 (13.1 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Jake Ferguson

• Week 3 RotoBaller Rank: TE15
• Week 3 Matchup: ARI (Rank: 28^th)
• Week 3 Finish: TE13 (7.3 points)
• Verdict: PUSH

Week 3 TE Matchups I Avoided

Zach Ertz

• Week 3 RotoBaller Rank: TE18
• Week 3 Matchup: DAL (Rank: 8^th)
• Week 3 Finish: TE43 (1.6 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Dalton Kincaid

• Week 3 RotoBaller Rank: TE13
• Week 3 Matchup: WAS (Rank: 12^th)
• Week 3 Finish: RB52 (1.3 points)
• Verdict: HIT

Week 3 TE Hit Rate: 75% (3-1)

 

Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on Twitter (@MunderDifflinFF).

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