X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Week 4 Disaster Recovery: DeAndre Hopkins

DeAndre Hopkins hasn't had double-digit targets since the opening game of the 2019 season. Steve Rebeiro decides how concerned fantasy football owners should be heading into Week 5.

Welcome to Disaster Recovery, where each week I'll examine why your studs played like duds. This isn't a place to find out why you should have sat a player for somebody on your bench. Disaster Recovery is to examine the guys who you didn't think twice about starting, and deciding if you should be panicking at all about their value moving forward.

This season we'll be focusing on one dud a week, and touching on a few others briefly. There will be two major qualifiers for these players: the player must have performed well below expectations without an injury, and the player must be considered a must-start in most formats.

In 2015, DeAndre Hopkins recorded over 1,500 yards and 11 touchdowns despite playing with four different starting quarterbacks and zero good quarterbacks. In 2019, he's playing with a Pro Bowl quarterback and is averaging under 50 yards per game over the past three games. What's happening?

Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.

 

Hopping Down The Bust Trail

DeAndre Hopkins' Week 4 stat-line: five receptions for 41 yards on eight targets... and an interception. 

DeAndre Hopkins' has recorded at least 1,200 yards in four of the last five seasons. The only time he didn't was during the infamous 2016 campaign, when Brock Osweiler was attempting to throw the ball his way.

During that season, Hopkins hauled in 78 of his 154 targets for 954 yards and four touchdowns. He averaged 12.2 yards per catch. The numbers weren't terrible, but they were far from what any owner who selected Hopkins in the first round would have hoped for. The worst part was that they could have been so much better if Osweiler could throw the football somewhat accurately. Hopkins had nearly 1,000 yards on by far the lowest catch rate of his career. Had Osweiler and Hopkins been able to connect on a few more balls, he likely would have had a decent season.

Hopkins' had a catch percentage of 51.7% in 2016. Through four games this season, he's caught 66.7% of his targets. He's on pace for 1,036 yards and 96 receptions on 144 targets. That's less targets than he received in 2016 and just 82 more yards.

My point is that Hopkins is barely on pace to top his yardage totals from 2016 despite catching 16% more of his targets. He's still on pace for eight touchdowns this season, but Hopkins hasn't scored since Week 1. He hasn't even been targeted in the red zone since Week 1.

Part of the reason - lack of a strong passing game. Hopkins has three games this season with eight or fewer targets and under 50 yards. In two of those games, Watson had fewer than 30 passing attempts, didn't throw for a touchdown, and didn't throw for more than 200 yards. Last week's game against Carolina was one of those duds. The week before, however, wasn't.

In Week 3, Hopkins caught six of his seven targets for 67 yards against the Chargers. This was in a game where Watson threw for 351 yards and three touchdowns. Five different players had five or more targets, and Watson chose to target his tight ends in the red zone rather than his star receiver. The Chargers have a solid pass defense, but other star receivers have been able to go to work against their secondary. In Houston's best passing performance of the year, Hopkins recorded his season-low in targets.

Week 3 proved that the Texans didn't need to force Hopkins the ball to have a successful passing attack. Weeks 2 and 4 proved that the Texans may not always have a successful passing attack. Neither of these points are going to make Hopkins owners feel better.

It seems silly for the Texans not to make it a point to get their star player the ball more in the coming weeks. The offense isn't exactly firing on all cylinders. Hopkins has also played against three very solid cornerbacks over the last three weeks, which may have played a part in Watson looking his way less often. A juicy matchup against Atlanta should serve as a prime bounce-back game for Hopkins.

The key word here is should. There's a chance that it doesn't. Hopkins received double-digit targets in 11 of his 16 games last season. This year, he's on pace for four games with double-digit targets. His lack of targets could be due to the fact he's gone against tougher competition. It could also be because the Texans have a much deeper roster of pass-catchers. Kenny Stills and Will Fuller are good receivers. Duke Johnson is a great pass-catcher out of the backfield. Watson has begun to develop chemistry with two different tight ends. The depth chart is so deep that Keke Coutee barely sees the field. This is a far superior receiving corps than Hopkins is used to playing with.

If you believe that Hopkins just ran into a string of good quarterbacks and will get back to his monster target-share in the coming weeks, hold steady and ride him out. If you think that the Texans may just be spreading the ball out more and Hopkins will just be a wheel in the offense rather than the engine, it might be time to sell while you can still get high-value for him.

I'm still willing to lean towards the former. I don't think Hopkins will approach 1,600 yards like he did last season, but I still believe he'll have well over 1,000 yards. And even if he doesn't, his current pace of 1,034 yards and eight touchdowns is fine. He's a superstar receiver with a relatively high floor. I'm still rolling the dice with Hopkins, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't sweating a little.

Panic Level: 2.5/5

Here are some thoughts on a few other duds from Week 4.

 

No Need to Worry

Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)

I'm sorry, but if you've been complaining that you lost in Week 4 because Keenan Allen had a bad game, you're what's wrong with fantasy football. Don't cry about your now 3-1 record that Allen helped carry you to. The Chargers receiver is still on pace for 1,808 yards and 12 touchdowns despite having 48 yards and zero touchdowns in Week 4. He's going to have a monster year. Don't be an idiot and panic.

 

Plenty of Reason to Panic!

JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, PIT)

JuJu probably won't have many more 15-yard games this season. But how much better can it really get? His season-high is 84 yards, a number he eclipsed nine times last season. It's not JuJu's fault that Ben Roethlisberger got hurt, but Mason Rudolph certainly isn't getting the job done. I'm not ready to bench Smith-Schuster just yet, but I'm also not feeling great about playing him. It's going to be a long season for JuJu owners.

You'd have a better chance of knocking out Brock Lesnar than this player living up to his ADP: Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)

Joe Mixon's 2019 season has been so laughable that I didn't even think he warranted a full article today. The Cincinnati Bengals are a bad football team. Their head coach might be terrible and their offensive line is definitely terrible. Mixon's outlook for the rest of the season is looking bleak in this offense. Unfortunately for Mixon owners, you probably can't get good value back if you trade him, and you probably don't have better options on your bench.

Look at the bright side. In the first two weeks of the season, Mixon had 27 total rushing yards. He's quadrupled that total over the past two weeks. If Mixon can keep up his current pace, he'll almost finish with 1,000 yards! Everything is fine!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Demarcus Robinson

Sentenced to Three Years of Probation
Jalen Nailor

In Line for WR3 Role in Minnesota
Andrew Thomas

Could Miss Start of 2025 Season
Alex Bregman

Expected to Return on Friday
Julio Rodríguez

Julio Rodriguez Won't Suit Up for Midsummer Classic
Trey Smith

Chiefs, Trey Smith Expected to Work Out Long-Term Extension
Bernhard Raimann

a Candidate for an Extension This Summer
C.J. Stroud

Could Sign Multi-Year Deal Before 2026 Season
Kyle Juszczyk

Says Christian McCaffrey Looks Healthy, Explosive
Kyren Williams

Showing Improved Explosiveness
Christian Barmore

"Dominant" this Spring
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF