Week 16 IDP Rankings & Your Christmas Gift From Uncle Chris!

December 25, 2020

Chris Gregory's Week 16 fantasy football IDP rankings at LB (linebacker), DL (defensive line), and DB (defensive back) plus top sleepers, streamers, and fades.

Given that it is Christmas time and the big day is just off the horizon, I feel I have to offer my readers a gift… but given how infinitely cheap I am and how little I actually want to give you a gift, my present to you will have to be free of cost or effort on my part.

That makes things more challenging, so I've spent some time thinking… and thinking. What can I get you all that I won't miss, won't want for myself, that won't cost me money, and will require little to no effort on my part?

Well, after hours of thinking, a Christmas miracle happened. I thought of a gift I could give you that won't put me out at all! And lucky for you, at least three of you may even want it! My gift to you is a piece of obvious advice!

It's Christmas Time

As most of you obviously must know, the fantasy playoffs line up with the busiest time of year: Christmas time. December is not a time where you can easily cast aside all obligations and focus just on football, as some may do in August or September. No, in December you have all of the responsibilities of being an adult (like work and chores), but you have far more on your plate than that. You have to get a gift that won’t disappoint your wife, cook for a dozen family members while making separate meals that your kids will eat, put lights on the house, and you have to avoid the advances of that very distant and drunk cousin who follows you around the house with mistletoe while telling you that you aren’t really related. So it is easy to ignore your fantasy rosters in December more than you usually would, instead relying on phone alerts or bedtime roster checks to keep your team in the championship. The problem is, relying on alerts and late night checks can be risky for those in competitive leagues, especially those in IDP setups.

Remember that the fantasy football world is still set up primarily for offensive players, despite all of the great apps and news systems out there. Your alerts, Twitter feeds, and newsreels will always prioritize offensive news, and they will often miss or back burner injuries or bulletins related to defenders. A great example of this would be this week when we all got repeated alerts about what color jersey Christian McCaffrey was wearing and how Washington has tailored their offense to Dwayne "G-String" Haskins. However, one alert that went missing in this constant offensive barrage was the news that Brian Burns was out.  One of the better IDP contributors of the season is out, and the alert was missing on thousands of phones. The Panthers' pass rush injury is something many diligent managers could miss all week until Christmas is over, and the DL waiver market has been well picked over if they aren't diligent.

I mention all of this just so you know that defender injuries can sneak up on you, and even experts can have limited or no information on defender status until they actively search local news outlets or contact sources for information. That’s why none of us, especially those still contending in IDP leagues, can afford to get complacent this holiday season. We should all have backup plans in mind for any defenders with a Q next to their name, and we should remember to check for news on those players whenever we can.

Stay on top of injuries now while you can. Others in your league may block you and render your season moot if you don’t.

Top-25 Fantasy Defensive Linemen of the Week

DL Streamer of the Week: Brandon Graham, Philadelphia Eagles

This is an excellent week to stream several talented fantasy DLs who usually sit in the DL2 or DL3 range but have DL1 matchups in Week 16. However, Graham is our streamer of the week because he has a terrific matchup, great talent, and has faded off of many fantasy radars lately.

Over his past four games, Graham has a total of just seven tackles. He has no sacks or turnovers during that time and just one TFL. That's a disappointing run for a guy who was having a career season through Week 8 of this year. The Cowboys may be the team to cure Graham's woes, though.

Dallas is giving up nearly three sacks and 13.35 quarterback pressures per game. They also just surrendered a big day to Arik Armstead in a game where the 49ers lacked much in the way of a pass rush beyond him. Look for Graham to victimize the Cowboys' current tackles Brandon Knight and Terrence Steele, who are giving up pressure on more than 7% of their pass-blocking snaps. Steele, who gives up a pressure every 12 snaps, should be a particularly generous opponent for the Eagles’ defensive end.

DL Fade of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers Defensive Linemen

I must always caution that fading a player(s) does not mean I am advising you to drop or bench them. Stars like T.J. Watt always deserve to start, even when they have terrible matchups… but the Steelers do happen to have a tough matchup against the Indianapolis Colts this week, and it should be enough to fade expectations for Watt and company.

Indy has surrendered the second least sacks to opponents this year, and they have the sixth-best Adjusted Sack Rate in the NFL as well. They have also coughed up the least fumbles (3) and the third-fewest turnovers all season, which is especially impressive when you consider how turnover prone Philip Rivers has been in the past. Given how reliant all pass rushers are on sacks and turnovers for fantasy points, the Colts’ conservative offense and terrific blocking provide real reasons to fade any defensive lineman going against them… even if those linemen are as talented and deep as the ones in Pittsburgh.

You obviously cannot bench T.J. Watt. He is simply too talented and too impactful to leave out of your fantasy DL spot. However, you can fade your expectations for Watt slightly this week, and you can consider benching players like Stephone Tuitt, Alex Highsmith, and Cameron Heyward if you have capable replacements with better matchups.

Top-25 Fantasy Linebackers of the Week 

LB Streamer(s) of the Week: Myles Jack, Jacksonville Jaguars

Over the past four weeks, the Bears have seen their run game revitalized by the suddenly effective David Montgomery. During this time the Bears have given Montgomery an average of 21.75 touches per game while sending an average of 7.75 targets per game to their tight ends. Beyond Allen Robinson and the occasional throw to Darnell Mooney, this Bears offense funnels through its running game and TEs.

Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars are utilizing Myles Jack in two primary ways. He joins Joe Schobert as one of their primary run-defenders, and he drops into coverage against opponents’ running backs and tight ends. While Jack has been generous in the passing game this year, that hasn’t caused the Jaguars to pull him off the field. The UCLA product is still seeing 100% of his team’s snaps, with participation as a pass rusher, run defender, and coverage weapon. The Jaguars are showing faith that Jack will return to his former coverage peak at some point and that he can still shut down players like Cole Kmet or Jimmy Graham.

Given the Bears’ primary weapons as of late, we should expect Jack to have a good shot at another double-digit tackle game this week. His usage against Montgomery in both the run and pass game, as well as the occasional snap against Kmet, should spell 30 or more opportunities for fantasy points. As a result, Jack is a borderline LB1 in Week 16.

LB Fade of the Week: Jordan Hicks, Arizona Cardinals

Hicks’ fantasy ceiling this year has been pretty shallow. The Cardinals’ linebacker hasn’t registered more than eight tackles in a game since Week 6, and he has zero turnovers all year. On top of that, he has only 12 total QB pressures, just two QB hits, and zero sacks on the season… so you can’t count on him as a pass rusher, either. Finally, Hicks gives up a 75.5% completion rate in coverage while getting his hands on the ball only twice in the 49 times he has been targeted.  All of that spells minimal potential for double-digit tackles, sacks, turnovers, or pass deflections.

Now I know what you’re going to say. Hicks’ season hasn’t been particularly bad, and he has a decent matchup this week against the mistake-prone C.J. Beathard.  That should be enough to start him, right?

The truth is, this matchup isn’t as good for Hicks as it is for other Cardinals defenders. While Hicks is often used in coverage and can be somewhat effective there, Isaiah Simmons has been more effective in both coverage and as a pass rusher this year. In fact, Simmons was drafted with opponents like George Kittle in mind. Expect Simmons to get a share of the Kittle coverage this week while he, Haason Reddick, and Arizona’s safeties handle most of the blitzing assignments.

With little to no big-play opportunities against a 49ers offense that should be playing from behind with their top runner and top two passers out, Hicks’ fantasy ceiling should be capped. Consider him a low-tier LB3 this week.

Top-25 Fantasy Defensive Backs of the Week

DB Streamer of the Week: Patrick Peterson, Arizona Cardinals

Peterson has shadowed an opponent’s top outside receiver five times this season, and the 49ers have a clear receiver for Peterson to shadow this week (Brandon Aiyuk). Aiyuk has averaged a whopping 12 targets per game over the past five weeks, and we shouldn’t anticipate that number going down because of George Kittle’s return. Kittle is reportedly going to be on a snap count, and with the 49ers missing multiple playmakers on offense (Raheem Mostert, Deebo Samuel, etc.), they can't afford to pull back on Aiyuk’s usage right now. That means Peterson should expect at least nine, if not more, targets this week. That’s an incredible opportunity for a talented corner, even before you factor in the quarterback throwing at him.

Peterson’s opposing quarterback this week is the third-stringer known as C.J. Beathard. In ten starts as a pro, the bench warming Beathard has averaged 3.5 sacks, two turnovers, and 35.7 pass attempts per game. While his interceptions in 2020 are down due to his limited usage this season, Beathard’s Bad Throw percentage this year is an abysmal 21.4%... which would be the worst in the NFL according to Pro Football Reference, if Beathard had played enough to qualify. That means that for every five throws Beathard tosses, one of them is a poor pass.

If Beathard continues to toss a lousy throw once every five passes, and if he targets Aiyuk/Peterson like we expect him to, Peterson should have a good shot at his fourth INT of the season. However, even without a turnover, a hefty target share should spell several tackles and two or more PDs for the LSU alum. Consider him a top-25 fantasy DB with upside.

DB Fade of the Week: Marcus Maye, New York Jets

Maye started the year off hot, and he has had several solid fantasy performances since then. He also has a decent matchup this week against the Cleveland Browns. So why fade him now, when he has the potential to contribute in a variety of statistical categories?

One concern for Maye managers is his seemingly low tackle potential. The FSU grad hasn't registered more than six tackles since Week 7, and he has averaged a paltry 3.8 total tackles per game since then. Those numbers have been low regardless of whether the Jets were playing against some of the NFL’s most run-heavy or most pass-heavy offenses. Maye isn't likely to supplement his low tackle numbers with a big play, either. While there was some hope early in the season that Maye would assume Jamal Adams' blitz heavy role in this defense, that hasn't happened. Maye has been brought as a pass rusher on only 1% of his plays since Week 5, which is the primary reason why he hasn't registered a single sack or TFL since then. Though Maye could supplement his low pass rush and tackle numbers with a FF or an INT this week, the odds of that aren't great against a Browns team that has committed the fifth least turnovers in the NFL.

With limited potential as a tackler and non-existent usage as a pass rusher, Maye has become a turnover or PD dependent play lately. Considering how stingy the Browns offense has become, Maye's odds of getting those turnovers he needs are low. Fade him to a low-end DB3 this week.

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