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Hello RotoBallers and welcome back to Break The Slate, our NFL DFS Lineup Picks for the Week 15 Saturday Slate! I appreciate you joining me in our season-long quest to find the best plays at each position for every NFL DFS slate.
As the NFL season continues to chug right along, we've reached the time of year when the league offers us up some Saturday action. The Week 15 Saturday slate will feature three games spread throughout the day. There are a lot of similarities with the Thanksgiving Day slate, so we'll attack our DFS thought process in a similar way, meaning we'll need to get unique in some areas of roster construction.
These NFL DFS lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected DFS points and ownership, overall upside/talent levels, and opportunity, as well as factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. Also, be sure to also check out our other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DFS lineups this Saturday – let's Break The Slate together!
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Quarterbacks - Week 15 Saturday Slate DFS Picks
Josh Allen - MIA @ BUF ($8,300 DK & $9,000 FD)
It's tough to ignore the elite floor/ceiling combo that Josh Allen provides on this short slate. While we haven't had a true ceiling performance from Allen in a few weeks, this matchup against Miami profiles as an enticing spot. It is tempting to simply bank the (almost) guaranteed DFS points here and move along.
The Dolphins have allowed the fourth-most DK points in the NFL to the QB position and grade out just 22nd in the league in Pass Defense DVOA. We know that Allen is capable of taking advantage of this matchup both through the air and on the ground. His 628 rushing yards this season are the fourth-most at the QB position and he's found the paint six times on the ground, which is the third-most among his fellow QBs.
Matt Ryan - IND @ MIN ($5,200 DK & $6,900 FD)
Listen, I get it. Nobody wants to click Matt Ryan's name on this slate, but with just three games on the docket, the veteran is a way to get contrarian at the top of our builds.
Ryan is undoubtedly washed, but he might be able to turn back the clock against a Vikings secondary that has been a legit dumpster fire in 2022. Minny ranks dead last in the NFL in passing yards (3,925) allowed this season and grades out just 27th in the league in Pass Defense DVOA.
Since Jeff Saturday was hired as the Colts' interim head coach and Ryan was reinserted into the starting lineup, the Indy passing volume has been surprisingly good. Ryan has averaged 32.75 attempts per game since Week 10. This game environment will likely be better than it appears at first glance, as this matchup boasts the highest projected O/U (48) on the Saturday slate and will be in the comfy, domed confines of U.S. Bank Stadium.
Running Backs - Week 15 Saturday Slate DFS Picks
Jonathan Taylor - IND @ MIN ($7,200 DK & $9,000 FD)
I want to attack this game from every angle and Jonathan Taylor is a pretty good way to get exposure. With a former offensive lineman calling the shots in Indy, the Colts have made no bones about trying to run the football. Since Jeff Saturday took the reigns in Week 10, Taylor's volume has been ridiculous. The stud RB has recorded 20 or more carries in every game with Saturday at the helm of this team.
Indy has not been afraid to work their star. Taylor has averaged a massive 86% snap share per game while seeing an average of 25.3 total opportunities per outing. Both those marks rank second in the NFL since Week 10. He comes into this one well-rested of Indy's bye week and could dominate a middling Vikes defensive front that ranks 14th in the league in Rush Defense DVOA.
J.K. Dobbins - BAL @ CLE ($5,200 DK & $6,600 FD)
Ravens' running back J.K. Dobbins returned from an extended stint on IR last week and stepped into a surprisingly-large workload. Playing just his fifth game of the season - and his first since mid-October - Dobbins garnered 15 carries against the Pittsburgh Steelers, which he converted into an impressive 120 rushing yards with a TD.
This Baltimore backfield has been a committee situation for almost the entire year, so there is some pause when projecting Dobbins for as much work has he garnered last week. Despite those concerns, he's a high-upside option in a juicy matchup against a Cleveland squad that stands 30th in the league in Rush Defense DVOA. The Browns are yielding a gargantuan 5.1 yards per carry on the ground and rank bottom-five in the NFL in rushing yards (1,360), rushing TDs (13), and DraftKings points (344.70) allowed to the RB position.
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Wide Receivers - Week 15 Saturday Slate DFS Picks
Justin Jefferson - IND @ MIN ($9,100 DK & $9,100 FD)
Matchup-proof and an equal-opportunity torcher of cornerbacks, Justin Jefferson is a play-him-if-you-can-afford-him lock on this three-game slate. His DFS upside is off the charts on a week-to-week basis and that's the case again here, even against an Indy secondary that grades out well statistically.
If Jefferson hasn't been the NFL's best wide receiver this season, he's sure in the running. The LSU product leads the league in total receiving yards (1,500) and average receiving yards per game (115.4), as well as DK and FD points at the WR position. A splash play waiting to happen, Jefferson has secured more catches of 20-plus yards (25)
Donovan Peoples-Jones - BAL @ CLE ($5,100 DK & $6,500 FD)
With Cleveland's WR1 Amari Cooper hampered by an injury, Donovan Peoples-Jones served as the Browns' alpha receiver in Week 14. In just his second game with Deshaun Watson at QB, DPJ logged season highs in targets (12), receptions (eight), and yards (114).
Cooper is expected to suit up Saturday, but it's fair to assume he's still ailing. It should mean plenty of opportunities for Peoples-Jones against a Ravens defense that ranks 26th in the league in DraftKings points allowed to the WR position. He is squarely in play on both sites this week.
Tight Ends - Week 15 Saturday Slate DFS Picks
T.J. Hockenson - IND @ MIN ($5,000 DK & $6,300 FD)
The volume has been huge since T.J. Hockenson landed in Minnesota on a trade deadline deal. He ranks third in the NFL in TE targets with 91 and has averaged 8.0 per game during his time with the Vikings.
The former Lion stands as the TE3 in both DK & FD scoring. He'll have plenty of opportunities against a Colts defense that's played well against the pass overall but has been leaky against the TE position. Indy ranks just 28th in the NFL in positional DVOA against opposing TEs and they are relinquishing 7.63 yards per target to the position.
David Njoku - BAL @ CLE ($4,200 DK & $6,000 FD)
Browns TE David Njoku returned to the lineup following a one-game absence and wasted little time getting down to business in Week 14. The athletic freak reeled in seven of nine targets for 59 yards and a TD in his first action with Deshaun Watson.
It has been a breakout season for Njoku, although he's battled injuries throughout the year and has missed four games in 2022. When he's been able to suit up, his impact has been notable. Njoku's 8.6 yards per target trail just Dallas Goedert and Travis Kelce among tight ends with 50 or more targets this year. Baltimore has been middling when it comes to defending TEs this season and Njoku has every avenue to continued production in this matchup.
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