RADIO
Welcome to Week 11, Rotoballers. The dog days are upon us. June is when the game warms up, and you need to keep your head up. Remember last season when Eric Thames was the presumptive MVP in April and May, only to crash and burn in June? There's a lot of season left, and winners don't take the first two months of the season for granted. Rotoballers keep their eyes open and make the shrewd moves.
The owners in your league who just love to draft and bail are likely losing their stamina for the game, but that's not you. You're a Rotoballer, and you don't settle for W's. Rotoballers want chips, and we have the tools you need to be there at the end. I guarantee you that when you snag some of the guys in this list, like Joc Pederson or Harrison Bader, your competition is going to raise their eyebrows. "Really?" they'll say. But you'll laugh your way to the bank when you're getting your money and your championship belt.
So, without further ado, here are the Week 11 Outfield Waiver Wire Targets. Check out the rest of Rotoballer.com for the content you need to win, and don't forget to follow our team of analysts on Twitter. We have the moves you need to make to get that ring. Good luck, Rotoballers.
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Week 11 Outfield Waiver Wire Targets
Joc Pederson (OF, LAD) - 22% owned
Los Angeles Dodger Joc Pederson has been on every fantasy experts’ love list since his 26 home run rookie season in 2015. His combination of insane raw power and surprising athleticism made him one of the top prospects in baseball, and that debut campaign did little to dampen those expectations despite a .206 batting average. The expectation was that Pederson’s BABIP would rebound from .262, he’d adjust to major league pitching enough to drop his strikeout rate from 29.1%, and he’d regularly produce 30 home runs per season. Fast forward to today, and Pederson finds himself coming off a disappointing 11 home run season with a .212/.331/.407 line and with questions on playing time.
All that said, Pederson has been showing real and impactful improvement in 2018. Of any of the guys on this list this week, Pederson is the kind of talent that can swing a season. Over the last week, Yung Joc nailed six (!) dingers, showing the same easy pop that brought his hype to a fever pitch in 2015. Now, fantasy owners shouldn’t get too too excited, as the six homers brought his season total to seven, but the improvements in his line cannot be ignored. Joc is swinging a pretty .275/.347/.529 while striking out on just 14.5% of at-bats, putting up an elite .255 ISO, and continuing his trend of making more and better contact year over year. A monstrous second-half could be coming for Joc, and owners should be jumping on him in all leagues immediately.
Derek Dietrich (OF/1B/2B/3B, MIA) - 22% owned
As a Rays fan, writing about Derek Dietrich brings a bit of a sting to this old man’s heart. My favorite Rays player of all time is Ben Zobrist. While Dietrich is no Zorilla, he does bring the sort of super-utility skillset that Tampa covets. He brings enough pop to be dangerous, plays almost any position on the diamond, and makes enough contact that his aggressive plate approach isn’t as disastrous as it could be. He’s an effective and useful asset on a baseball team, and the same is certainly true for fantasy teams
Dietrich has basically been recreating his 2017 campaign, when he went .249/.334/.424 with 13 homers and 53 runs batted in over 464 plate appearances, with a couple of notable exceptions. The most obvious difference is his batting average, currently at .288, which has largely been driven by a relatively unsustainable .351 BABIP. Another change is a dramatic cut to his walk rate, literally half of the 7.8% a season ago. So Dietrich is clearly being more aggressive at the plate, but that feeds into the largest change, that being the strength and quality of his contact. Dietrich is swinging at 3.1% more pitches and making much harder contact than at any point in his career. Just 18.5% of his contact is considered soft, while a whopping 38.9% of contact is hard. While this change has yet to impact his ISO in any meaningful way, the eye test confirms that Dietrich is trying to smack the stitches off the ball when he swings. That means that his ISO should tick up as the season goes on, and he should improve on his career high of 13 home runs in 2018. A player that brings legitimate pop and can be slotted into pretty much any opening in fantasy owners’ lineups has solid value. If you’re looking for middle or corner infield depth that has outfield eligibility, you could do a lot worse than a guy who is almost guaranteed to get a full load of at-bats for the remainder of the season.
Jon Jay (OF, ARI) - 17% owned
Newly minted Arizona Diamondback Jon Jay wasn’t expected to be fantasy relevant in 2018. Truth be told, he hasn’t really been fantasy-relevant since his 2013 campaign, which was the last time he stole more that six bags. His swing is far too soft, evidenced by his inability to produce more than two home runs per year since 2014 as well as a career average ISO of .093. This year hasn’t been much different, as the 33-year-old was acquired by the Diamondbacks for his prowess in the outfield as opposed to his effectiveness at the plate. What Jay does bring to the table for fantasy owners is a very good near .300 batting average, a solid on-base percentage, and an elite strikeout rate. Jay is exactly what you think he is at this point, that being a largely empty average who can add runs in a good lineup and won’t hurt you in leagues that penalize for K’s. In a 12 to 14 team league, Jay is a reliable two-category producer that will get exactly no one excited, but is a worthy inclusion at the end of your bench if you happen to need average or runs.
Niko Goodrum (OF/1B, DET) - 10% owned
Despite a less than stellar week of work, Detroit’s Niko Goodrum continues to get at-bats in the outfield and first base. It seems that the Tigers are set on running out players like Goodrum to see what they have. While fantasy owners shouldn’t expect a superstar or even a regular starter, rather a good platoon or matchup option. Goodrum performs considerably better against left-handers, hitting .270/.357/.432 versus southpaws as opposed to .224/.309/.439 with righties. Oddly enough Goodrum produces more power against right-handers, but at just 152 plate appearances on the season this could be nothing more than an outlier. Still, Goodrum represents the kind of end-of-the-bench asset that winning teams can use to fill valuable off day and injury spots. Given a full season of at-bats, 15 homers and 15 steals is easily within the realm of possibility, and he brings enough pop that owners can dream on more. If you have the bench space or need to deal multiple assets to upgrade at a position of weakness, consider Goodrum a replacement option with good upside.
Harrison Bader (OF, STL) - 8% owned
Since the theme this week is apparently good assets that have had poor weeks of work, I present to you former top Cardinals prospect Harrison Bader. In case you’re unfamiliar, Bader is a legit power/speed combo threat with plus tools and the ability to stick in center field. He also has a fair amount of holes in his swing, and will need to learn how to stick to a game plan at the plate in order to get to all of those tools. On the season, Bader is proving that the combo skills are real, putting up five home runs and six steals on 119 plate appearances. The holes in his scouting report are also proving themselves legitimate, as he’s striking out 25.2%. Looking back at his minor league performance, it’s not likely that he’ll improve beyond the .262/.336/.439 line he’s shown this season. However, he’s a true plus runner, and 20+ steals for the season with consistent at-bats is certainly possible. If you’re hurting for steals in a 12-team league or deeper, Bader represents a good higher ceiling add, especially with the added pop that he brings.
Johnny Field (OF, TB) - 1% owned
Well, we did it folks. Our favorite son of the Rotoballer Outfield Waiver Wire Targets column has attained the magical 1% ownership mark. Everyone, take a second to pat yourselves on the back, crack open a beer, and celebrate the team effort it took to get the most overlooked, underowned, and dubiously named talent in all of baseball recognized in the eyes of the fantasy baseball community. Bravo!
As far as the last week, Field had one of his weaker entries, producing just a .182 average with three runs batted in across 22 at-bats. However, keep in mind that what we predicted weeks ago is bearing fruit, that the Rays are giving players like Field run. They want to see what they have, and Field’s production compares favorably to alternatives like Carlos Gomez or Rob Refsnyder. With the trading of Brad Miller and promotion of Jake Bauers, it’s clear that Tampa is giving the kids all of the rope they can handle, and over the last month Field has been proving his mettle. He still strikes out too much, seems allergic to walks, and is a little too aggressive with his approach, but he’s a real power/speed combo that most teams in 12-team leagues or deeper could put to use at the ends of their benches. Let’s crank up that 1% on our favorite anonymous ballplayer!
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