RADIO
Oooh, baby! We are back! Last season was a doozy, covering the streaming defenses each week and even getting an FSWA nomination for the column. However, I'm not one to rest on my laurels, so I tried to take it up a notch for you this season and created my own defensive ranking formula: DOWN (Defenses Of Weekly Note).
The formula takes into account my favorite stats for picking the right defenses (both positive and negative) and weighs them in a formula that you can view here. I used the formula to create a full leaderboard after last season, which you can also view at that link, and will begin updating the leaderboard on these rankings after Week 1 (I'm also open to suggestions on improving the formula as the season goes on. The idea is for it to be as accurate as possible, and I'm not a mathematician, so feel free to reach out on Twitter with ideas).
It's important to clarify that the DOWN rankings ARE NOT to be treated as weekly rankings. DOWN is meant to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their DOWN ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
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Picking The Right Defenses
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards per play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below - but they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. Last season, NFL offenses gained 359 yards per game and scored 12,692 points or 24.8 points per game, which is the most in the Super Bowl era.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Once we get a few weeks into the season, we will also be able to identify the offenses that we want to attack based on performance. The current leaders for that position are the Texans, Lions, Jets, and Jaguars, but that could change. As I mentioned last year, attacking these teams doesn't always work and you don't want to elevate a bad defense too far just because they get one of those teams as an opponent; however, it is a key factor to keep in mind when making your decision.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Week 1 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
These rankings will be adjusted throughout the week to take into account weather and injuries.
Below are my Week 1 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 1 of the NFL and fantasy football season. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver wire pickups to improve your lineups, and to decide which defenses to start, sit, target, avoid or stream for Week 1. I've broken out our defense rankings into tiers with analysis on each matchup. Some of these Week 1 defenses have good matchups and are not widely-owned, representing fantasy scoring opportunities if they are available on your league's waiver wire for a Week 1 pickup or add.
Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues, and Tier 5 being desperation plays or above-average defenses in horrendous matchups.
Tier 1 Defenses
Tier one was really easy for me in Week 1. I felt like all three of these teams stood clearly above the rest, and I could make a logical case for each of them to be the number one option. However, the 49ers defense is my choice for two main reasons: full health and weak opponent.
When I wrote up the Niners as one of my defenses to target going into drafts, I brought up the super obvious point that this is an incredibly different defense when Nick Bosa and Dee Ford are on the field. Last season, the 49ers had Nick Bosa for all of two games and Dee Ford for only one. The loss of those two dynamic pass-rushers drastically re-shapes the ability of a defense and having them guys consistently pressuring the quarterback will drastically improve a pass rush that finished 22nd with only 30 sacks last year. The other factor in why I ranked them first is that I think this Lions' offense will be bad. I love D'Andre Swift, but Dan Campbell hasn't given me confidence that he's going to use Swift as the star player that he is, which is bad news when you consider that the passing game is led by Jared Goff and Tyrell Williams. No thanks.
The Ravens defense being second above the Rams will surely draw some criticism, but as you can see in the confidence rankings, I love both plays. I just like the Ravens a bit more because of the way this Las Vegas offense turned the ball over last year. In 2020, the Raiders turned the ball over on 14.8% of their offensive drives, which was third-worst in the NFL. While we can't assume that stat will carry over year to year, they also brought back a near-identical offense with the exception of Kenyan Drake as committee running back. I expect Bryan Edwards to take a step forward this year, but this Ravens defense is a tall task. They were 4th in the NFL in pressure rate last year, 11th in drives ending in a turnover, and third in drives ending in a score. They have always been a ferocious defensive unit, and I simply think they will cause havoc against this Raiders offense.
The Rams defense is likely the best overall unit of the top three, but I think people are too hard on the Bears. Yes, Andy Dalton is not as exciting as Justin Fields, but he's a competent NFL quarterback and an accurate quarterback. His 78.4% accuracy percentage last year was good for 10th in the NFL, ahead of Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Ryan Tannehill, Ben Roethlisberger, and many more. I bring that up because I don't expect the Bears offense to make an awful lot of mistakes on Sunday. Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, and David Montgomery make for a solid offensive core, and I think their defense will keep them in this game, which will enable them to keep the run game active. Aaron Donald will likely wreak havoc on the Bears' mediocre offensive line, which is why the Rams are ranked this high, but I just see more upside in the Ravens play.
Tier 2 Defenses
The Broncos defense was one of my defenses to target in the draft and, much like the 49ers, it comes down to injury. As I said in the article, they "struggled a little bit towards the end of last year, which is understandable when you get zero games from Von Miller, seven games from A.J. Bouye, six games from Mike Purcell, and three games from Jurrell Casey. Obviously, the biggest difference-maker there is Miller, who is one of the premier defenders in the NFL and should be fully healthy entering the 2021 season. That alone is a massive upgrade for a defense that still finished ninth in sacks with 42 on the season." I believe in the talent of this defense, and I don't, at all, believe in the Giants' offense. Saquon Barkley is still not 100% and will likely have his workload limited and Daniel Jones simply hasn't taken big enough steps forward. Considering the Giants also might have the worst offensive line in football, I expect the Broncos to be in the backfield often on Sunday.
The Patriots' offense has been the talk of the offseason after Mac Jones was elevated to the starting role, but I think it's the Patriots defense that will shine in Week 1. They finished 18th in the 2020 DOWN rankings, and are certainly not the formidable unit that they have been in the past even though talking down about any Patriots unit will certainly earn me some ire. Without Stephon Gilmore, I have some questions about this secondary, and I really like the offense Miami is building with Tua Tagiovailoa, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, and Jaylen Waddle. I also think that the Dolphins' offensive line is going to be a problem for the team early on. This is a very young unit with some promise, but you know Bill Belichick is going to come up with a scheme that will be tough for the young blockers to identify. I think the Patriots might finish the season just outside the top-10 this season, but I like them as a play in Week 1.
The Washington defense emerged as an elite unit last year, and will likely find themselves in the top two tiers for much of this season. They finished fourth overall in the 2020 DOWN rankings, thanks to being eighth in pressure rate, sixth in sacks, and fifth in drives ending in a score. I think they're one of the best defenses in the league, but they run into a stiff challenge this week against a Chargers offense led by Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler. Herbert is still a young quarterback, so he can make mistakes against a strong defensive unit like this, and I don't necessarily think Jared Cook will be a great weapon at tight end, but the Chargers offense will score. They will also give up sacks, which will keep Washington as a strong unit this week.
For a few years, the Bills hung around the middle of the pack in the NFL with a strong defense and a middling offense. Obviously, things have changed with Josh Allen leading the way; however, the defense is still a strong unit. They finished 14th in the DOWN rankings last year and will now have a healthy Matt Milano and first-round rookie Greg Rousseau, who has really flashed in the preseason. The Bills pass rush should be much improved, which is really good news against a potentially weak Steelers offensive line. Given Big Ben's lack of mobility these days, if the Bills are able to get into the backfield often, they should rack up a few sacks. They also finished 2nd in the NFL in defensive drives ending in an offensive score and will bring back the same ball-hawking secondary, who could help elevate the Bills defense to a top unit this season.
The Chargers were another defense that I was drafting heavily because they will return Joey Bosa and Derwin James for a, hopefully, full season. There are also a few major differences to the 2020 team that has me back in on the Chargers, but the biggest might be that they hired Brandon Staley as their head coach right after Staley coordinated the Rams' dominant defense. He will surely have a hand in shaping the Chargers' defensive vision and scheme, so I'm confident he can take a defense anchored by Joey Bosa, Linval Joseph, Derwin James, and Chris Harris Jr. and make it a talented unit. In his first test, he gets a Washington team led by gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is almost always good for a few turnovers a game. Washington has a solid offensive line, and I really like Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin, but I expect this to be a fast-paced game with a fair amount of sacks and turnovers, which is good for fantasy points, even if the game winds up being relatively high scoring.
Tier 3 Defenses
I don't understand why people are so low on the Dolphins defense this week. They finished as the 8th ranked defense in DOWN last year, thanks to finishing 10th in sacks, 11th in pressure rate, and 1st in defensive drives ending in an offensive turnover. Brian Flores knows what he's doing when it comes to coordinating a defense, so this shouldn't come as a surprise. I am expecting bigger jumps from young, talented players like Christian Watkins and Raekwon Davis, which will help a talented secondary led by Xavien Howard, Eric Rowe, and Byron Jones. The Dolphins also signed Jason McCourty to start and guide first-round draft pick Jevon Holland, which should round out a ball-hawking group that can earn you fantasy points in a hurry.
On another note, I think the Mac Jones love has gotten a bit crazy these last few weeks. He could very well end up being a great NFL quarterback, but he's a rookie in his first start with a mediocre receiving corps, so I'm not sure why we're expecting him to dice up the team that was the best in the league at forcing turnovers in 2020. You even have the narrative of Flores working against the offensive scheme he practiced against every day in New England, if those kinds of narratives are your thing.
We had a year off, but it's time we remember what it's like when Jameis Winston plays quarterback. For every amazing throw, there is another boneheaded decision that leads to a turnover or even a defensive score. Now, it's entirely possible that Sean Payton and his coaching staff have spent the last year-plus working on some of his bad habits, but I need to see it in live regular-season action to believe it. Especially against a Packers defense that brings a relatively consistent amount of pressure. The Saints have a strong offensive line, so I'm not sure how many sacks the Packers will get, but I think they can force Jameis into some bad throws, and it's important to remember that his supporting cast, apart from Alvin Kamara is relatively untested, led by Marquez Callaway and Tre'Quan Smith. We've gotten excited about those guys and Tony Jones Jr. and Juwan Johnson, but we have no real idea what they will bring when the game action begins.
The Seahawks defense wasn't a great real-life unit last year, but they were a solid fantasy defense and finished ranked 10th in DOWN last year thanks, in large part, to being seventh in sacks. Considering what the offense is capable of doing, opposing offenses are often forced to pass late in games, which allows Carlos Dunlap and company to pin their ears back and get after the passer. With Bobby Wagner roaming the middle and a solid secondary led by Jamal Adams, this is a solid fantasy defense that figures to flirt with a top-10 ranking this year as well. The offense will continue to put up points, which will force the opposing offense to try and keep up. I'm just not sure Carson Wentz is in the position to do that throwing the ball to Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell. The Colts will be a strong offense when their offensive line can control the game and open lanes for Jonathan Taylor, but I don't think this will be that kind of game.
The Steelers defense and the Bucs defense are going to be great this year; there is no question about that. However, they both have some really difficult matchups this week. The Bills and Cowboys are two of the most explosive offenses in football, so I don't expect dominant defensive efforts from these strong teams. The Cowboys will be without Zach Martin and the Bills offensive line isn't particularly strong, which is why both of these teams are pushing for top-10, but the Bills scheme Josh Allen to get the ball out quickly, and the Cowboys have more than enough offensive playmakers to scheme around a weakness on the offensive line. I think both of these defenses are in the conversation in 12-team leagues but I'm not as confident in them as I will be for the majority of the season.
The Panthers are a trendy defense this week, but I encourage people to not assume this is the same Jets offense as last year. They made some real investments in the offensive line, and adding Corey Davis, Zach Wilson, and Elijah Moore to their offense has really improved the quality of play. I don't think they're a dynamic offensive team, but the Panthers aren't going to pitch a shutout here, and this is a defense that finished 24th in sacks last year, so they could face an uphill battle for sacks. The Panthers have made a few strong additions to their defense and have young talent, so they intrigue me as a unit, but I need to see results on the field first before I buy into them as a sacks/turnovers team, which, as we mentioned before, is more important for a fantasy DST than allowing few points.
The Eagles defense is being overlooked because they let up a lot of yardage and points last year. They will likely do that again this year, but they also blitz like crazy, finishing 2nd in pressure rate and 3rd in sacks last year. I expect them to be equally as aggressive this year, which is good news this week against a below-average Falcons offensive line. The Falcons offense is also now without Julio Jones and is putting a lot of pressure on 29-year-old Mike Davis to help establish a strong running game. I'm just not 100% sure this Falcons offense will be as explosive as we've grown accustomed to, even with Calvin Ridley establishing himself as one of the best wide receivers in the game.
You can add the Colts defense into the same argument as the Bucs and Steelers above. Playing the Seahawks is no easy feat. However, I also think we overate the Colts defense from a fantasy perspective. They're a great real-life defense, but they finished 11th in the DOWN rankings last year because they were 12th in sacks and 18th in pressure rate. They don't blitz a lot, so they rely on getting pressure from the front four. They have the talent to do it, but they're a level beneath Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay as a fantasy defense, in my opinion, so they're slightly lower this week against Russell Wilson and his explosive teammates.
Tier 4 Defenses
The Chiefs are a defense I really like this season and think they are playable against the Browns this week if you want to keep them for a good chunk of the season. However, I think the Browns are a solid offense, so I wouldn't be actively looking to play the Chiefs this week, even though I expect them to turn Mayfield over a couple of times.
I know most people have Minnesota higher, but this wasn't a great defense last year, finishing 28th in the DOWN rankings. Cincinnati also has some exciting offensive pieces in Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Ja'Marr Chase, so even if their offensive line isn't great, I don't think this is a good matchup for Minnesota. Similarly, I know people are high on Jacksonville this week because the Texans' offense is putrid, but we talked at length last year about how you don't want to rely on a bad defense just because they have a good matchup. I need to see if this defense is talented before I can start them with confidence, even against the Texans.
The Jets and Giants are being slept on this week and I might be playing them in DFS. These were middle-of-the-pack units last year, and I think the Jets made some strong additions in the offseason. The Giants are also playing a Denver offense that is full of unknowns in Teddy Bridgewater, Javonte Williams, and Courtland Sutton coming off an injury.
I love the Saints this season and think they finish as a top-10 defense. I just don't love them against Green Bay.
Tier 5 Defenses
I love the Browns defense this year, as I covered here in my defense sleepers article, just not this week.
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