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Brady Grove discusses the unusual fantasy baseball value of long relievers in the 2020 MLB season and if it will remain a viable strategic option down the road to draft these RP.
In part one, we examined the bullpens in Toronto and Cincinnati.
The circumstantial insanity of the 2020 MLB season necessitated some adjustments in strategy, both for big-league managers and fantasy baseball GMs. One of these adjustments, prompted by frequent doubleheaders and the three-batter minimum rule, was the greater use of long-relievers and a generally reduced workload for rotation pitchers.
The question remains: will long-relief remain a relevant approach for racking up IP, wins, saves + holds, and tolerable strikeout numbers for 2021 and years to come? With uncertainty looming as to the parameters of the upcoming year, let's look at some of the more prominent long-relievers from 2020 and assess their situations to project whether they should be on Fantasy Baseball GM radars for the 2021 season. For convenience, let's view the field in descending order by teams that made particularly potent use of long-relievers and the staff members they deployed.
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Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays squeezed every drop of production out of their bullpen this season en route to a World Series birth, possibly more than any team in history, evidenced by the fact that they recorded saves by 13 different pitchers. While Nick Anderson and Diego Castillo had the highest-leverage innings on lock, the long-relief duties fell to John Curtiss and Aaron Slegers.
The Rays have one of the most versatile bullpen repertoires in the ball and they match it with astounding creativity, whether it's using openers, three-headed knockout punches, or simply blurring the line between starters and relievers; however, what Curtiss and Slegers showed they are capable of this past season presents an alluring strategic path, both on the field and for Fantasy Baseball GMs. Now, I wouldn't feel right if I made it through this portion without mentioning the contributions in this department last year by Jalen Beeks and Trevor Richards. Unfortunately, Beeks is on the long-haul recovery from Tommy John surgery, and while Richards' versatility was necessary, he struggled for the majority of 2020 (even worse as a reliever), and he is currently penciled in as the fifth man in the Rays rotation.
Let's start with Aaron Slegers, the now 28-year-old former Hoosier who came crashing on to the MLB scene after tossing just 3.0 innings with Tampa in 2019 following a downtrodden two seasons with Minnesota. The 6'10, 260-lb. righty limited opposing batters by insane proportions; although he finished with a 3.46 ERA and just 6.6 K/9 (actually a milestone for him), he stifled the opposition to the tune of a 0.89 WHIP, and rounded his FIP out to 3.04 with his 0.3 HR/9 and 1.7 BB/9 in 26.0 IP over just 11 appearances (one start, 2.36 innings per outing). He wasn't able to enter the win column, but he did tally two saves and two holds. That's a high-leverage score in over one-third of his appearances on the year, accomplishing the feat by throwing 3.0+ innings four times and only failing to hit 2.0 IP on two instances which occurred back to back in mid-August. His .230 BABIP would cause concern, but when you reduce your hard-hit rate by 8.4% and allow just 24% hard contact on batted balls, it's hard to see how a batted ball ever falls for a hit. At 30.2% frequency at 85 MPH, he is throwing his slider more often than ever and faster than ever, and his lanky frame seems to be working with that combination.
The lack of whiffs is a bummer, but that won't keep him from the mound when he has exponentially limited batters' odds of a free trip to first or cracking a homer. Given the unique nature of Slegers' contribution to the defending AL Pennant winners, his role remains concrete and probable to expand, making him an excellent option at long-relief for wins, holds, and ERA and WHIP since he is staying in games long enough to create a significant difference in your pitching staff's weekly average. In the case of 27-year-old Texan John Curtiss, he emerged in 2020 from similar circumstances, and while Curtiss may lack in certain areas when compared to Slegers, he more than makes up for those deficiencies in other ways that help him to not get lost in the fold.
He too, is a large person, standing at 6'5, 220-lb., and he entered 2020 without a touted prospect pedigree or any stint of MLB success to his name, struggling mightily with walks and allowed hits with the Twins and Angels. Something must have clicked, because Curtiss went off for a 1.80 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, three wins, two saves, and while he did permit 1.1 HR/9, he balanced out nicely with just 1.1 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 25.0 IP over 17 games (three starts, 1.47 innings per appearance). Curtiss stuck with a 56.5%/43.5% split between his fastball and slider, and unlike Slegers, he launches both with a bit of gas, clocking in at 94 and 85.2 MPH on average, respectively. However, in contrast to Slegers, Curtiss got by on a .273 BABIP despite allowing 43.5% hard contact and just 5.8% soft contact. What saves the day in analysis of John Curtiss's phenomenal season is his time-tested grounder propensity, producing a 1.26 GB/FB ratio in 2020 on 42% ground balls. When his 22.2% K-BB% enters the fold, he makes for a seriously challenging at-bat for anyone stepping into the box.
Curtiss doesn't stretch appearances as far as Slegers does, and for that reason he is a more traditional RP for high-leverage situations and thus the more likely of the two to earn saves as opposed to holds. Of course, when you pitch as good as these guys did last season for more than an inning every game, you're both in the mix for entering the win column, particularly on a championship-caliber team like Tampa. Nick Anderson is so good that it's downright silly, and Diego Castillo/Peter Fairbanks turned in heroic seasons at the backend of the pen in their own right, but Aaron Slegers and John Curtiss convincingly displayed how vital their execution in long-relief can be to a deep postseason run for the Rays. It's anyone's guess how the Blake Snell trade might shake up the lineup, but I'd guess that Kevin Cash will keep us engaged. Even with several other talented pitchers awaiting their opportunity, with Aaron Loup hitting free agency, John Curtiss projects as a savvy play for scoring in ERA, WHIP, wins, saves, and strikeout efficiency; while Aaron Sleger is an even more under-the-radar addition for safe scoring in ERA/WHIP with his minimization of offensive opportunity, wins, holds, and some extra padding in the IP department.
Detroit Tigers
Special attention must be paid to Daniel Norris, the man I turned to in desperation near the season's end after frustrating issues with my pitching staff while down to my last few acquisitions. It's been a topsy-turvy ride for the former highly-touted prospect, some years looking like all the scouts thought he would, some years appearing to be unsalvageable. After putting together a decent 2019 spent mostly in Detroit's rotation, he transitioned to the long-relief role in 2020, completing 27.2 IP over 14 games (one start, 1.98 IP per game).
It might be his true calling in the big leagues, because he turned in a 3.25 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and three wins, off of air-tight results for K-rate (24.1%), BB-rate (6.0%), and HR-rate (1.7%), cumulating in a 2.87 FIP. He might have gotten off a bit easy with his 75.3% LOB-rate, but that concern is neutralized by the fact that he held a .291 BABIP despite perpetuating just 28.7% hard contact on batted balls. While forcing just 12.5% soft contact on batted balls leaves the door open for plenty of lower-damage hits, Norris packs an additional insurance policy in his recently developed talent for producing ground balls, which he did at a 55.7% clip in 2020, ultimately netting an earth-heavy 2.10 GB/FB ratio.
It might be the case that Norris had a pitching epiphany for minimizing the opposition's lift-off, as he chose to deploy his fastball, slider, and curve with less frequency and instead bumped up his changeup usage by 11.5% (30.6%), and reached a career-high average velocity on that pitch at a clip of 87.7 MPH. With the struggles that were rampant throughout the Detroit bullpen in 2020, particularly with younger players with long-relief skill-sets like Rony Garcia and Kyle Funkhouser, Norris is primed to step right back into his new universe for a team looking to ascend off the back of the elite talent they have gradually assembled. If you find yourself in a serious starting pitcher bind come 2021, the persistent production from Daniel Norris could be your life preserver, as his workload amongst a very mixed bag in the Tigers' relief core could translate into effective scoring for ERA, WHIP, wins, holds, and the strikeout totals that catch you by surprise.
Just Missed the Cut (But Worth Attention)
Matt Wisler (SF)
Jonathan Loaisiga (NYY)
Cal Quantrill (CLE)
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