Unexpected Dynasty Risers - Pitchers

August 31, 2020

Jamie Steed evaluates lesser-known pitchers who have become fantasy baseball risers in 2020 and are worth rostering in Dynasty Leagues as adds or buy-low targets.

Every year in dynasty league drafts fantasy managers will target young future stars, prospects which rank highly among all prospect rankings. There's a tendency to overdraft/overpay for these high-end prospects as fantasy folks are drawn to the new and shiny things much like kids get gooey-eyed for the newest toys each Christmas.

While this is understandable as these prospects are ranked highly for a reason; they have the best chance of translating potential into Major League success. But there are always some hidden gems, those with impressive Minor League numbers which can act as a great indicator of how a player will fare in the Majors and how a prospect will transition into fantasy relevancy when they get called up to The Show.

But every year, lesser know prospects emerge at the Major League level as viable fantasy options. Sometimes, players in their mid-twenties who aren't even in the top-10 of their club's farm system get called up and perform at an unexpected level to become fantasy relevant. Despite the uncertainties of 2020, we are still seeing such players come from nowhere into fantasy relevancy so we're going to take a look at five pitchers who are doing just that, assess their performances so far and what their long-term fantasy value is.

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Tejay Antone (SP/RP, CIN)

Antone has appeared in seven games for the Reds predominately out of the bullpen but has made two starts, although he's yet to get through five innings and maxed out at 82 pitches. That has limited his exposure in fantasy which can only be a good thing as he continues to go under the radar. But a quick look at the 26-year-old's Statcast profile will very quickly get you on the Antone hype-train.

After missing 2017 following TJS, Antone had a solid 2018 season in High-A pitching 96.0 innings (17 starts) with a 4.03 ERA. Antone started 2019 in Double-A and in 13 starts put up a 3.38 ERA (74.2 IP) before finishing the season in Triple-A with a less impressive 4.65 ERA from his 71.2 IP (13 starts and one relief appearance). His Triple-A BABIP was .402 so his ERA was inflated due to some misfortune.

In the Major League, Antone has a 2.66 ERA from his 20.1 IP with a 3.38 SIERA. His numbers have been better coming in relief as he's given up just two earned runs in 12.0 IP out of the bullpen and that could be where his long-term future lies. Antone might offer more fantasy value as a long reliever too as he's struck out 18 batters in his 12 relief innings (compared to 9 Ks in 8.1 IP as a starter). He can get through enough innings to help with ERA and WHIP and will pick up wins along the way. His dynasty outlook is certainly a positive one and a few more good outings this year will only increase interest among fantasy players.

Logan Webb (SP, SF)

Webb came into the season as the Giants no.1 pitching prospect, but after making just one Triple-A start in his career, he made the jump up to the Majors in 2019 and struggled. As a result, some of the shine came off of Webb's fantasy outlook. In eight starts, Webb threw 39.2 IP and had a 5.22 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP with 37 Ks and 14 BB. Although his underlying numbers suggest Webb was unfortunate last year (4.45 SIERA, 4.12 FIP and 3.89 xFIP), they aren't quite at the level to justify rostering Webb in anything other than the deepest of leagues. This year, Webb has marginally better numbers with a 4.35 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 31.0 IP (seven starts). His underlying numbers are similar too with a 4.48 SIERA, 3.27 FIP and 4.23 xFIP. Again, nothing that really justifies rostering Webb in fantasy leagues.

If we take a look at his minor league numbers, we'll see a pitcher who dominated at the MiLB levels for the last two years. In 2018, Webb had a 2.41 ERA in 104.2 IP before a 1.85 ERA in 63.1 IP last year prior to his Major League call up. The concern for Webb was developing his changeup as he had a plus fastball and slider in the minors but looking at his numbers this year, his changeup has been his best pitch with just a .250 SLG% against it (compared to .400 in 2019).

We're talking small sample sizes but if Webb's changeup does continue to dominate and gives him an out pitch against left-handed hitters, he should be able to take the next step up and become a more dominant pitcher. Interestingly, he's upped its usage this year too from throwing it 20.1% of the time in 2019 to 30.2% in 2020.  This could be the last time you can add Webb to your dynasty rosters without spending much to pick him up.

Devin Smeltzer (SP/RP, MIN)

After being traded by the Dodgers to the Twins in 2018, Smeltzer had an impressive Minor League season in 2019 before being promoted to the Twins. Between Double-A and Triple-A, Smeltzer made 19 starts and one relief appearance, totaling 104.1 IP with just a 2.76 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, tallying 104 Ks and 22 BB. His first go at the Major League level was impressive too as Smeltzer had a 3.86 ERA across 49.0 IP as he made six starts and appeared in relief five times (four of the five relief appearances were at least 4.0 IP). Smeltzer had just an 18.8% K% but only walked 12 batters in the 49.0 IP. He did have a dose of good luck last year with a 4.68 SIERA, 4.58 FIP and 4.85 xFIP so when we see Smeltzer has a 6.59 ERA so far in 2020, you'd be forgiven for thinking he has no fantasy relevance.

However, as lucky as Smeltzer was last year, he's been even more unlucky this year with a 4.19 SIERA, 4.24 FIP and 4.62 xFIP as well as a .344 BABIP against him. He's only pitching 13.2 innings this year in five appearances and made just one start but has pitched between two and three innings in his relief outings and went 4.1 innings in his solitary start, so Smeltzer is at least in consideration for starting long-term and isn't seen as a one-inning type bullpen arm. It's unclear whether Smeltzer will make any more starts in 2020 but if he doesn't, fewer people will be looking to add him to their dynasty rosters this year, making him easier to pick up for your teams with a solid outlook for the coming years.

Ryan Castellani (SP, COL)

It seems as though a young pitcher emerges in Colorado every year before finding out how brutal pitching at Coors Field can be and getting discarded in fantasy leagues as quickly as they get rostered. Castellani's Major League career has started well and it'll come as no surprise that he's fared better on the road than at home. In four starts (two home and 2 away), Castellani has a 5.23 home ERA (10.1 IP) and a 1.80 road ERA (10.0 IP). It may seem futile rostering a Rockies pitcher especially one who had an 8.31 ERA in Triple-A last year and a 5.49 ERA in Double-A in 2018. His scouting reports mention Castellani was working to correct his delivery in 2018 and was making mechanical alterations and then last year, had to undergo surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow which limited him to just 10 starts so I'm fine with giving him the benefit of doubt that injury was the cause for last season's numbers. Especially when we see how well he did in the Arizona Fall League after recovering from surgery where he threw 16.2 innings and had just a 2.16 ERA.

Castellani does have a four-pitch arsenal with a four-seam fastball having enough life on it that it registers as a sinker on Statcast almost half the time it's thrown. That will hold him in good stead pitching at Coors Field as if he can keep the ball on the ground, he'll have a much better chance of success there more so than any other ballpark. His fastball has been sitting at around 93 MPH this year but did touch 97 MPH last year in the Minor League so there could be more to come. If we look at the effectiveness of his pitches this year both the actual stats and expected stats against each pitch (below), we have reason to believe Castellani can get even better if he finds more consistent movement on his fastball so it registers as a sinker more often. Castellani could be a very effective pitcher with the Rockies for years to come and is certainly someone who warrants rostering in dynasty leagues.

JT Brubaker (SP, PIT)

The Pirates have had very little to get excited about in 2020 but the emergence of Brubaker as a viable Major League pitcher is one positive. Whether or not he continues to be a starter or transitions into the bullpen long-term could rest on how he gets on the remainder of this year but he's certainly done well enough to warrant consideration as a rotation option. After a highly impressive 2018 which saw Brubaker reach Triple-A, the Pirates added him to their 40-man roster but any hopes of a call-up to the Major Leagues last year were curtailed by arm injuries (forearm strain and elbow inflammation) which limited him to just 27.2 IP. His ERA last year was still a miserly 2.28 when he was able to take the mound, which backed up his improvements in 2018 that saw him throw 154 innings with a combined 2.81 ERA across two levels.

After two scoreless relief outings to begin this year consisting of 5.0 IP and seven Ks, Brubaker moved into the starting rotation but struggled and lasted just three innings in each of his first two starts and gave up three earned runs in both games. His last two starts have been better with a 4.0 IP, 2 ER and 6 K performance followed by a 5.0 IP, 2 ER and 6 K outing, both coming against Milwaukee. His best two pitches are his sinking fastball and a slider with a curveball and changeup added into the mix but neither of which grade out particularly well. The lack of a really solid third pitch is what leads many to believe Brubaker will end up in the bullpen but his curveball and changeup have yet to give up a hit so far (thrown a combined 60 times). If just one of those pitches can continue to be as good as they have so far and with his hard slider, the offspeed pitches will continue to compliment his sinking fastball which has enough movement on it to be a strikeout pitch itself. That effective third pitch could be the difference between being a good bullpen arm and a good Major League starter as well as making Brubaker a viable fantasy option.



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