RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 285
CURRENT ADP: ~308 overall
ANALYSIS: Megill offers sneaky strikeouts in a pitcher-friendly park, but even Citi Field couldn’t save him from an overall 1.91 HR/9 in 2021. We start with the good, as Megill posted a 3.92 xFIP and 3.85 SIERA underneath the 4.52 ERA in 89 ⅔ IP. The 26-year-old leaned on a mid-90s fastball over half of the time, mixing in a slider and changeup at about 20% usage each, with a rarely-used curveball in his back pocket. Per BrooksBaseball, all four of those pitches registered a whiff-per-swing rate of 20% or greater. Not a bad arsenal.
Megill had an impressive 59 K’s in 40 ⅓ IP in the minors prior to his promotion, where he tallied another 99 strikeouts. The total workload of 130 IP means reaching the 170-180 range in 2022 is well within reach, and that means 200 K’s is on the table too. The questions arise when considering the Mets’ rotation plans and how they’ll juggle arms to protect Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco types. Even if we only get 140-150 frames from Megill, I want a piece of the rookie who waltzed into Yankee Stadium and gave us 10 K’s in seven frames.
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