RADIO
Michael Grennell analyzes under-the-radar starting pitchers (SP) making two starts in Week 11 as possible streamers and waiver wire adds or targets for fantasy baseball.
I don't mean to toot my own horn here, but man my Week 9 picks were probably the best I'm going to make this year.
Steven Matz, Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Trevor Richards and Jose Urena combined for seven quality starts while posting a 7-3 record, a 3.13 ERA and 62 strikeouts. The winner out of that group was Richards, who was 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 13 strikeouts over 12 innings. Week 10 has been a little rougher on the picks, but Dylan Bundy is leading the way after allowing three runs while striking out four over five innings to earn the win against Texas.
There are some interesting names on this list that owners should consider streaming this week, but most of these guy's you'll be playing with fire. So let's take a look at who are the safer bets in a potentially volatile Week 11.
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Week 11 Streamers - Under 50% Owned
Spencer Turnbull, DET - 37% owned
Probable opponents: @ KCR, vs CLE
Turnbull started off the year with three straight rough outings, but since then he's been putting up solid numbers for Detroit. In the month of May, he posted a 3.12 ERA over 34 2/3 innings with 33 strikeouts and a pair of quality starts. The strikeout rate has dipped over his last two starts, but otherwise things are still looking good for the rookie.
He'll start off the week with a nice start against a struggling Royals offense, which is averaging 3.1 runs over their last 10 games. As if that isn't a good enough sign for owners looking at streamers, the Royals are hitting .243 over that span while averaging 10 strikeouts per game. And then the cherry on top of this matchup is that in the two outings he's had against Kansas City earlier this season, he's recorded two quality starts while striking out 17 over 13 innings. Closing out the week, Turnbull will then face the Indians, who have been heating up recently. Over their last 10 games, Cleveland is averaging 5.3 runs and 6.6 strikeouts while hitting .260. But in Turnbull's favor, the Indians are posting an OPS 75 points lower and a strikeout rate two percent higher against right-handers than lefties, and they have a worse average (.225) and OPS (.685) on the road than at home.
There's a fair amount of risk throughout this week's list, but Turnbull seems to be the safest bet for Week 11. Owners should focus on targeting him first out of the guys on this list.
John Means, BAL - 37% owned
Probable opponents: vs TOR, vs BOS
At the beginning of the year, I never thought I would have had two Miami pitchers in the same column in one week, and I also never would have thought I'd have Baltimore pitchers in back-to-back columns. And yet, here I am telling you all to look at adding John Means off the waiver-wire this week. One could argue that Means has been somewhat of the ace of the Orioles rotation in 2019, posting a 2.89 ERA over 10 starts with four quality starts and 37 strikeouts over 53 innings.
This week Means gets the benefit of pitching at home, where he has shown greater success with a 1.53 ERA and 8.0 K.9 over 29 1/3 innings. He'll start off the week taking on the Blue Jays for the first time in 2019. Toronto is currently 3-7 over their last 10 games, averaging 4.5 runs and 8.5 strikeouts in that span. While those numbers look to be in Means' favor, the Blue Jays have also been hitting better against lefties and while on the road this season. If Means can find success against Toronto, he'll then face the Red Sox, who are averaging 6.1 runs over their last 10 games while also hitting .282. While that might seem like reason to avoid Means, the Red Sox are also hitting worse on the road, and they're averaging 9.2 strikeouts over this last stretch. Oh, and did I mention that Means has already faced the Red Sox twice this year? And that he's held them to two runs, seven hits and one walk over 12 innings?
If Turnbull has already been picked up, owners should focus on grabbing Means next. Because when it comes to looking for a win in Week 11, this lefty will definitely be a Means to an end.
Thank you, thank you, I'm here all week.
Week 11 Streamers - Under 25% Owned
Jerad Eickhoff, PHI - 20% owned
Probable opponents: vs ARI, @ ATL
Eickhoff has struggled as of late, but after recording a quality start against the Padres his last time out, things might be looking up for him. Especially with starts projected against the Diamondbacks and Braves this week. Both the Diamondbacks and the Braves are hitting worse against right-handed starters (.242 and .256 respectively) than against lefty starters (.277 and .261). The Diamondbacks in particular should be a decent matchup, as they are averaging 4.0 runs and 8.5 strikeouts while hitting .239 over their last 10 games. The Braves on the other hand will be a tougher start, as they are hitting .250 and averaging 5.5 runs over their last 10 games.
In the under 25 percent owned section this week, you're going to find a lot of risk and volatility. Eickhoff is a good example of this, as he is coming off recent struggles and he will be facing at least one tough start with the Braves. The splits though suggest that Eickhoff could put up a decent week, and if you want to gamble on getting a really good outing against Arizona he could be a solid add.
Anibal Sanchez, WAS - 14% owned
Probable opponents: @ CHW, vs ARI
You may not realize it, but Sanchez has actually been on a bit of a hot streak over the last month. After being rocked for six runs over five innings on April 24, Sanchez has posted a 2.36 ERA over six starts while striking out 35 over 26 2/3 innings, and since returning from a hamstring injury he's allowed just one run over his last 11 1/3 innings. Everything I mentioned with Eickhoff regarding the Diamondbacks applies to Sanchez, but unlike Eickhoff, Sanchez will get the benefit of another soft start against the White Sox. Chicago is averaging 4.3 runs and 9.3 strikeouts over their last 10 games, and they also have struggled more against right-handed starters (.248, 26.3 percent strikeout rate) than against lefties (.270, 25.9 percent).
Owners aren't going to have many good opportunities to consider rostering Sanchez this season. This week might be the softest slate of games he'll have all season, and owners should consider adding Sanchez before looking at Eickhoff.
Mike Leake, SEA - 9% owned
Probable opponents: @ MIN, @ OAK
And now we've arrived at the final member of this week's column, and also probably the riskiest play. Leake has been putting up fairly solid performances over the last month, recording a quality start in five of his last seven outings while posting a 3.80 ERA over 47 1/3 innings. But this week he'll be facing two of the hotter offenses in MLB, as both the Twins and Athletics are averaging over 5.0 runs and hitting over .255 over their last 10 games. Leake hasn't faced the Twins in 2019, but he has had two starts against Oakland — one in which he allowed one earned run with six strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings, and another where he allowed five runs with four strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings. But like several of the other guys on this list, Leake will have decent matchups based on splits, as both the Twins and Athletics are hitting worse against right-handed starters (.269 and .242 respectively) than versus left-handers (.284, .259), and they both hit worse at home (.253, .231) than on the road (.287, .263).
Hopefully you will be able to grab one of the other guys on this list before you look at Leake. But if you're considering him, he may be risky but the matchups look like they could be in his favor.
