RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 280
CURRENT ADP: ~330 overall
ANALYSIS: Trent Grisham owned the league's lowest batting average last season, a feat well-known within the baseball community. A .184 mark is hard to ignore, especially when combined with a paltry .284 OBP and .341 SLG, good for a .626 OPS, the fifth-last among qualified hitters. Grisham has been the starting center fielder in San Diego for the past three seasons, where he was an above-average hitter for the first, but it seems the Padres are looking to platoon him in 2023. Although, I still think Grisham will eventually play his way into everyday at-bats.
He's probably not the player we saw in 2020, but he can still be a productive hitter. The former Brewers draft pick still hit 17 homers and compiled 19.9 xHR in 2022. And Grisham’s barrel rate climbed back up to 8.1% after posting a 5.2% rate two years ago. His 88.3 average exit velocity was identical to his mark in the shortened season, and he still walked a ton, managing a 10.9% walk rate. The issues for Grisham were an inflated strikeout and fly ball rate. He struck out 28.6% of the time last season after a 22.6% rate the year prior. Grisham was still extremely patient and only chased pitches at a 20.7% clip but whiffed at a below-average rate. And after back-to-back seasons posting a fly ball rate below 23.4%, it skyrocketed to 30% in 2022. Even small improvements in these areas can bring Grisham's average back up to .230, around his .231 career xBA.
He’s also a solid baserunner. Grisham had an 87th-percentile sprint speed in 2022, but his stolen base total maxed out at just seven. The Texas native stole a combined 23 bases in his previous 191 games, so that should be on the rise this year, especially with bigger bases. Grisham has been better against lefties in his career, posting a .237 average and .732 OPS compared to a .217 average and .704 OPS off of right-handers. Engel is known for his defense, but the former has been right there with him, even winning a Gold Glove last year. I think it's an easy assumption that Grisham will out-hit someone with a career 72 wRC+ and 74 wRC+ against lefties. Everyday playing time doesn't mean he's a fantasy stud, but he'll supply decent power and speed to any team.
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