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Top NFL Betting Expert Picks for Week 2 (9/15/19)


We're back for Week 2 of the NFL season. While Week 1 didn't go as well as hoped, there was a lot learned about how teams will operate this year.

We're here to dive into the numbers, teams, and picks setup for the NFL this week. There is nothing quite like waking up on Sunday morning, checking out the lines, and throwing down some fun money to make watching those games a little more enjoyable.

Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season. Here’s the motto we’ll take through the year: Bet. Sweat. Keep the wallet wet. 

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Seattle at Pittsburgh (-4)

O/U: 46.5

Seattle struggled a bit in Week 1. Facing the banged up Cincinnati Bengals, the Seahawks were favored by -9.5 and won, by a narrow one-point margin, 21-20. Russell Wilson went just 14-for-20 for 196 yards and two scores, while Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny combined for just 64 yards and a score on the ground. Something didn't seem right in this one, as one of the top run-blocking offensive lines couldn't create lanes, which stalled both aspects of the offense. These Seahawks were top-eight in the NFL last season with 26.8 points per game, so there is more to be had here. Rookie receiver D.K. Metcalf stole the majority of Wilson's attention, while Tyler Lockett hauled in a 44-yard touchdown for his only reception. Defensively, Seattle could be in for a long year if their season opener is any indication. 418 yards allowed through the air is a long ways away from the Legion of Boom years; this defense has taken a pretty severe step back.

The Steelers suffered one of their most embarrassing loses in recent memory, if not in all of the Mike Tomlin-era, in Week 1 to the Patriots. Pittsburgh's defense had no answer for Tom Brady on defense, and their own version of the offense was pitiful. Ben Roethlisberger struggled with accuracy, James Conner struggled finding running lanes, and Donte Moncrief dropped a handful of passes (pun intended), including a touchdown in the third. Overall, this team was just not prepared for the confines of Gillette Stadium. Luckily for the Steelers, they're back at home for Week 2. Since 2015, they're 24-10 at home. Yes, Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell aren't around town anymore, but Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster are and they've proven to be some of the best at their positions. The Steelers Defense has some real talent but there are very clearly some holes that teams will be able to exploit, including the fact that cornerback Joe Haden (shoulder) may miss the game.

The Steelers first game without Brown and Bell wasn't great, but this offense is not as bad as they showed inNew England. This is bounce-back territory for Pittsburgh. Seattle will also be traveling to the east coast which has been known to create some jet lag. However, this offense didn't even get into a rhythm Week 1 and still scored 21 so as the offensive line gets into form, this top-notch run game will also round into shape. With Pittsburgh as home favorites in 2018, the over went 5-2, while the over went 4-2 with Seattle listed as road underdogs. Both teams have a ton to prove, but the Steelers' offense will especially be looking to get points on the board.

Pick: Over 46.5

 

Minnesota at Green Bay (-3)

O/U: 44

Minnesota threw 10 passes in a Week 1 28-12 win over Atlanta, which isn't something that happens often. Their commitment to the ground game was astounding, rushing for 172 yards on 38 carries and three scores. When Dalvin Cook is healthy, he's proven to be one of the top backs in football so the Vikings will continue to feed him. When they do need to throw, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are quite a duo for Kirk Cousins. Cornerback Mackensie Alexander (elbow) is out Sunday which is a huge loss for the Vikings, but the front seven did a good job pressuring the quarterback in Week 1.

The Packers squeaked out a 10-3 victory over the Bears to open the 2019 season, but man was it ugly. The offensive line couldn't protect Aaron Rodgers to save his life, and their effectiveness in run blocking was just as bad. Even when he did have time, Rodgers struggled to find his weapons as Davante Adams had just four receptions for 36 yards. Coach Matt LaFleur's new offense was about what it was in Tennessee, anemic and unexciting. Granted this was against a stout Bears Defense, but Green Bay looked awful on all fronts offensively. Luckily their defense was able to bail them out for the win, holding Chicago to just 254 yards of offense.

Between Minnesota establishing the run and the plethora of problems for the Packers, it's hard to expect a high total in this one. Over the last 10 matchups between these teams, the total has been under seven times. In four of Green Bay's last six home games, the total has gone under, while in three of Minnesota's last four road games, the under has hit. It seems that Green Bay is still working out some kinks in a new offense, while Minnesota has found a new love for a ground-and-pound offense. Take the under.

Pick: Under 44

 

Los Angeles Chargers at Detroit (+2.5)

O/U: 47.5

The Chargers are without their two top red zone threats in Mike Williams and Hunter Henry. Yes, you could say they are without their top running back too, but Austin Ekeler (154 total yds, 3TD) has shown that Melvin Gordon is replaceable. However, those two main omissions from the offense are big losses for the Chargers. The team was able to sneak out an overtime win against the Colts in Week 1 because Adam Vinatieri forgot how to kick after all these years. I don't expect Ekeler to have the same production against a better defensive line, and Rivers has some pretty significant home/road splits.

The Lions blew a 17-3 halftime lead to the Cardinals in Week 1, which resulted in a tie, and nothing has ever surprised you less. New offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell loves to run the ball but for some reason Matthew Stafford threw 45 passes last week, while Kerryon Johnson and CJ Anderson nearly split carries and the duo still couldn't get over 100 yards combined. They seem to have found the next Gronk in T.J. Hockenson, while Danny Amendola, Kenny Golladay, and Marvin Jones Jr. all fight for attention. Defensively, the unit doesn't get enough credit as Damon "Snacks" Harrison and Darius Slay are two of the best at their position. If the Lions can get the offense together, the team could shock some people down the stretch.

In the five games that Detroit was listed as the home underdog last season, the under hit all five times, while the under hit in six out of their eight home games last season. While the total went over in six of LA's eight road games last year, the offense is going to have a tough time replacing Henry and Williams, placing a lot of weight on Rivers and Ekeler. Both teams will have a lot to figure out in this one, which I think keeps it a low-scoring affair.

Pick: Under 47.5

 

Indianapolis at Tennessee (-3)

O/U: 44

The Colts likely would have won in regulation last week if Adam Vinatieri didn't miss two field goals and an extra point last week, but instead, they lost in overtime to the Chargers. Marlon Mack rushed for a career-high 174 yards, while Jacoby Brissett threw for 190 yards and two scores. Brissett still isn't getting the credit he deserves but the offense didn't skip a beat to open the season. If Andrew Luck were still around this team would be favored in this one, but Brissett will continue to get disrespected until the Colts win a big game.

Tennessee was great at home last year, going 6-2 and they return much of their cast from 2018. They dismantled the Browns on the road last week 43-13, but that was more because of the Browns ineptitude (and 18 penalties) than the Titans' ability. The offense runs through Derrick Henry, who rushed for 84 yards and a score last week. He has just one touchdown in five career games against the Colts.

Expect Indy to force the issue of stopping Henry early. If they can keep him contained and force Marcus Mariota to throw more than he's comfortable with, that would be a smart gameplan for the Colts. Brissett and company should have no problems covering, and I might even take them on the money line (+150).

Pick: Indy +3

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