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Top NFL Betting Expert Picks For Conference Championship Week

Steve Janik's NFL betting picks for the Conference Championship Round. He analyzes NFL Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.

San Francisco and Minnesota made me a little nervous early, scoring 24 combined points in the first half, but things slowed down in the second and the under hit comfortably. Baltimore just totally fell apart, and were stunned by the Titans, after being the top seed in the AFC. Green Bay teetered on blowing their lead, and thanks to a generous first down by the refs, they held on and covered the 4.5 point spread.

We have just two weeks of football left, which puts some pressure on handicappers to help those looking for insight to finish the season strong. We push on and look at recent trends, along with individual player playoff history to drive our research and make the best informed decisions possible.

Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season. Good luck!

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Green Bay at San Francisco (-7.5)

O/U: 46.5 

As winners of their last six, Green Bay is peaking at the absolute right time. Aaron Rodgers and company have averaged 353 yards per game in that stretch, and while they've only scored 25 or more twice, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams are weapons every remaining team would beg to have. An interesting split stat is that Rodgers is 1-2 in Conference Championship games with a 4/5 TD/Int. Defensively, the Packers have been stout, allowing more than 265 yards of offense just once over the six-game win streak, but they've been very streaky all season, so at any moment they could fold. The 49ers don't just love to run the ball, they're also very good at it, rushing for 143ypg over the last seven, so Green Bay will need to focus on stopping the run over anything.

San Francisco took care of business in their first playoff game since 2013, defeating Minnesota 27-10. Jimmy Garoppolo wasn't needed for much, throwing for just 122 yards, with a touchdown and interception in his first career playoff game. Like Kyle Shanahan has done all season, the 49ers grounded and pounded their way to 186 yards and two scores and the Vikings had no match. The Packers Defense can easily be run on, but they have had their moments of being an elite run defense this year. On the 49ers defensive side, they brought their top effort post bye week. Richard Sherman, Nick Bosa, and the rest of the Niners defense are able to take over a game in a handful of plays, but the Packers will certainly be a fair match.

After wins this season, Green Bay has seen the total go under eight times, while San Francisco has had the total go under seven times. Rodgers doesn't have a great Conference Championship portfolio but their weapons are arguably the best of the remaining team. The 49ers Defense is the best remaining unit on that side of the ball, which gives them a big boost, on top of their love of running the ball. I see a close, low-scoring affair on tap in the NFC Championship game.

Pick: Green Bay +7.5 and Under 46.5

 

Tennessee at Kansas City (-7.5)

O/U: 52 

Tennessee continues to roll through the playoffs, while shocking some of the top NFL fan bases with upset wins over the Patriots and the top-seeded Ravens. Derrick Henry might on one the best stretches of football in the last 20 years; he's rushed for over 100 yards in seven of the last eight games, which includes six games with 149 yards or more. While Ryan Tannehill was an enormous part of the Titans getting into the playoffs, he's been equally unneeded over the last two games, throwing for just 160 yards on 15 completions with three touchdowns and an interception. Defensively, Tennessee has been pretty vulnerable to giving up yards, but keeping points off the board. This is evidenced by the 13 points allowed per game and 379 ypg over the last three contests.

The Chiefs are coming in fresh off one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history; overcoming an early 24-point deficit, Kansas City showed that they're for real by dropping 41 unanswered points. Patrick Mahomes' five touchdown passes are what most expected out of the third-year signal caller this season, which hints that he's getting hot at the perfect time. His favorite target was Travis Kelce, to the tune of of 134 yards and three touchdowns, so if the Chiefs can get Tyreek Hill going, this offense will be deadly at home. The Chiefs Defense is easily the weakest of the remaining teams, and this is the same defense that gave up 188 rushing yards to Derrick Henry in Week 10. If they're unable to contain him, this could have the similar making of last week's game.

Both of these offenses are dangerous in their own ways, while their defenses have their weaknesses. Compared to the NFC Championship game, this matchup has the makings of a shootout. Early and often, the Titans might let Tannehill throw it around a little more than normal, which will catch KC off guard. Meanwhile, the Chiefs offense will want to prove that their 41-point outburst wasn't a fluke, so they should come out, guns blazing.

Pick: 1st Half Over 25.5

More Football Analysis




REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

De'Von Achane

Remains a High-End Dynasty RB Despite Uncertain Supporting Cast
Xavier Worthy

Chiefs Limited Xavier Worthy's Usage After Injury Last Year
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Not Ready to Discuss Extension With Rashee Rice?
Cade Otton

Remains a Quality Dynasty Depth Piece
CFB

Walker Lyons Could be Go-To Target for Bear Bachmeier
Austin Reaves

Scores 31 Points in Game 2 Defeat
T.J. Hockenson

Bounce-Back Chances Stifled by Improved Pass-Catching Depth
CFB

Ty Benefield a Potential Game-Changer for LSU Defense
Chet Holmgren

Anchors Thunder Past Lakers in Game 2
CFB

Hayden Lowe Set for Significant Role Following Miami's NFL Departures
Jordan Addison

Facing Competition for No. 2 Role?
Tobias Harris

Stays Hot in Game 2 Victory
Cade Cunningham

Pushes Pistons to 2-0 Series Lead
CFB

Taylor Wein in Position for Big Season on Oklahoma's Defensive Line
Taylor Heinicke

Retiring After 11 Seasons
Jarrett Allen

Provides Bright Spot in Cavs' Game 2 Loss to Pistons
Jauan Jennings

Signs With Vikings on One-Year Deal
CFB

Rasheem Biles an Instant Impact Player for Texas
James Harden

Struggles in Game 2 Loss
Donovan Mitchell

Finishes Game 2 Loss with 31 Points
Gradey Dick

Open to Trade Away From Toronto
Michael Porter Jr.

Wants to Stay in Brooklyn
Charlotte Hornets

Hornets Extend Charles Lee After 25-Win Improvement
Jarred Vanderbilt

Ruled Out for Game 2 Against Thunder
Luke Kennard

Cleared to Play Thursday
Ayo Dosunmu

Considered Questionable for Game 3 Against Spurs
Anthony Edwards

Remains Questionable on Injury Report Ahead of Game 3
Mitchell Robinson

Probable for Friday's Action
Kevin Huerter

Remains Out Thursday
Sam Merrill

Unavailable Thursday
OG Anunoby

Tagged as Questionable for Friday
Joel Embiid

Listed as Questionable for Game 3 Against Knicks
Dan Vladar

Looks to Return to Winning Ways Thursday
Connor Dewar

Penguins Re-Sign Connor Dewar for Two Years
Mikko Rantanen

Played Through Torn MCL Late in the Season
Rasmus Dahlin

Ready to Go Friday
Kyle Pitts Sr.

Signs Franchise Tender on Thursday
Alexander Nikishin

Set to Return Thursday
Joe Burrow

Attending Voluntary Workouts, Ready for Monster Season?
Christian Dvorak

Available Thursday
Owen Tippett

Remains Out Thursday
Roman Anthony

Heading for the Injured List
CFB

Sam Leavitt Expected to Be Full-Go for Fall Camp
T.J. Hockenson

Can T.J. Hockenson Bounce Back with Improved Quarterback Play in Minnesota?
Jordan Love

Is Jordan Love's Dynasty Upside Fading Entering 2026?
Dalton Schultz

Facing Increased Playing Time Competition in Houston Entering 2026
Kimani Vidal

Dynasty Value in Question Due to Uncertain Playing Time Outlook
Juwan Johnson

Facing Reduced Role in New Orleans Following NFL Draft?
Chuba Hubbard

a Prime Bounce-Back Candidate Following Offseason Moves
Indianapolis Colts

Kenny Moore Granted his Release by Colts
Minnesota Vikings

Chad Alexander a Candidate for Vikings GM Job
Tarik Skubal

Could Return in 4-6 Weeks After Successful Elbow Surgery
Minnesota Vikings

Vikings Request to Interview RJ Gillen for GM Job
Drake Maye

Shoulder Doing "Great"
Gunnar Helm

a Clear Breakout Candidate Despite Crowded Offense?
Cole Ragans

Royals Hopeful That Cole Ragans Makes his Next Start
Paul George

Does a Little Bit of Everything in Game 2 Loss
Tyrese Maxey

Tallies Team-High 26 Points in Wednesday's Loss
Mark Stone

Nets Late Power-Play Goal in Losing Effort
Leo Carlsson

Pots Game-Winner Wednesday Night
Juraj Slafkovsky

Ends Point Drought in Game 1 Loss
Bowen Byram

Ties Franchise Record With Fourth Postseason Goal
Zach Benson

Posts Second Consecutive Multi-Point Game
Rasmus Dahlin

"Seems Fine" After Early Exit on Wednesday
Emilio Pagán

Emilio Pagan has Grade 2 Hamstring Strain, Expected to Miss 4-8 Weeks
Joe Ryan

Listed as Scheduled Starter for Saturday Against Cleveland
Tyler Glasnow

Not Expected to Land on the Injured List
Framber Valdez

Suspension Reduced to Five Games
Nils Hoglander

Will Miss World Championship Due to Injury
Christian Dvorak

Likely to Play in Game 3 Against Hurricanes
Owen Tippett

a Game-Time Decision Thursday
Noah Cates

to Miss Rest of Round 2
Arber Xhekaj

Rejoins Canadiens Lineup Wednesday
Brendan Gallagher

Scratched on Wednesday
Logan Stanley

Returns to Action Wednesday
Framber Valdez

Suspended Six Games
Tyler Glasnow

Exits Early on Wednesday With Back Pain
CFB

Brauntae Johnson the Next Star in Notre Dame's Secondary?
CFB

Ethan Barbour a Name to Know in Georgia's Tight End Room
CFB

Payton Pierce Next Up at Linebacker for Ohio State
CFB

Javin Gordon to Play Significant Role for Tennessee?
CFB

Tanook Hines Stepping into WR1 Role for USC
CFB

Rueben Owens II has "Star Potential" in Fourth Campaign
Brandon Woodruff

has Fluid Drained From his Right Shoulder
Brandon Woodruff

to Resume Throwing on Saturday, Return Imminent?
Carlos Correa

to Have Season-Ending Ankle Surgery
Jacob Misiorowski

Listed as Friday's Probable Starter
Logan Webb

Dealing With Knee Discomfort
Carlos Correa

Expected to Miss Significant Time With Ankle Injury
Collin Morikawa

Withdraws From Truist Championship
Xander Schauffele

Carries Elite Form Into Quail Hollow
Hideki Matsuyama

Looks to Bounce Back at Truist Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick

Secures Third Win of 2026 Season
Patrick Cantlay

Continues Playing Well Heading to Truist Championship
Ludvig Aberg

Returns to Action For Truist Championship
Justin Thomas

Searching for Consistency at Quail Hollow
Jordan Spieth

Looks to Break Through at Quail Hollow
Adam Scott

Brings Strong Form to Quail Hollow
Robert MacIntyre

a Steady Option at Truist Championship
Jason Day

Looks to Overcome Approach Struggles at Quail Hollow
Akshay Bhatia

Looks for Complete Game at Truist Championship
Mats Zuccarello

Extends Point Streak to Five Games
Emilio Pagán

Emilio Pagan Headed for Injured List With Hamstring Injury
Emilio Pagán

Emilio Pagan Carted Off With Apparent Hamstring Injury on Tuesday
Justin Rose

to Continue Mid-Season Club Change at Truist Championship
Si Woo Kim

is Back to Peak Form Ahead of Truist Championship
Sam Burns

to Bounce Back at Truist Championship
Cameron Young

Looks to Carry Dominance to Quail Hollow
Rory McIlroy

Returns to Familiar Stomping Grounds This Week at Quail Hollow
Chris Gotterup

Looking to Bounce Back at Quail Hollow
MLB

Cardinals-Brewers Game Postponed on Tuesday
Roman Anthony

Day-to-Day With Wrist Sprain
Jacob Misiorowski

"All Things Look Good" for Jacob Misiorowski to Start on Wednesday
Tommy Fleetwood

Looking For Better Iron Play at Quail Hollow
MLB

Rockies-Mets Game Postponed Due to Inclement Weather
CFB

Mario Craver Enters No. 1 Wide Receiver Role for Marcel Reed
CFB

LaNorris Sellers a Strong Rebound Candidate in 2026
CFB

Cam Coleman Poised for Monster Year at Texas?
CFB

Will Hammond Pushing to Be Ready for Week 1
Alex Fitzpatrick

Looking to Keep Up Ball-Striking Output at Quail Hollow
CFB

Notre Dame Leads College Football in Returning Snaps
CFB

Two Ole Miss Football Players Arrested, Charged with DUI
Ben Griffin

Looks Solid on the Surface Heading to Charlotte
Chase Elliott

Earns his Second Texas Motor Speedway Victory
Denny Hamlin

Misses Out on Winning at Texas
Alex Bowman

Finishes Third for the Second Week in a Row at Texas
Tyler Reddick

Earns Seventh Top-Five Finish of the Season at Texas
Chris Buescher

Scores his First Career Texas Finish in the Top Five
CFB

Bryce Underwood in Better Situation Entering Sophomore Season
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Emerging as Leader, Playmaker for UCLA
Jack Della Maddalena

Gets Dominated At UFC Perth
Carlos Prates

Shines At UFC Perth
Beneil Dariush

Suffers A First-Round TKO Loss
Quillan Salkilld

Remains Unbeaten In The UFC
Tim Elliott

Drops Decision At UFC Perth
Steve Erceg

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Ollie Schmid

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Marwan Rahiki

Remains Unbeaten
Christopher Bell

Is Christopher Bell Worth Rostering for Texas Lineups?
William Byron

Might have the Speed to Compete for the Win at Texas
Joey Logano

Provides Solid Upside for Texas DFS Lineups
Chase Briscoe

Could Chase Briscoe be A Sneaky Pick for Texas Lineups?
Ty Gibbs

Should DFS Managers Roster Ty Gibbs at Texas?
Daniel Suarez

Is Daniel Suarez Worth Rostering After Career-Best Starting Position at Texas?
Kyle Busch

Is a DFS Risk Starting in the Top 10 at Texas
Tyler Reddick

One of the Favorites to Win at Texas
Chase Elliott

Could Contend for Another Win at Texas
Carson Hocevar

on Pole at Texas
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Wrecks in Practice at Texas
Chris Buescher

Looking to Continue Strong Run at Texas
Austin Dillon

Blows Engine in Practice at Texas
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