🦃 BLACK FRIDAY - TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE THANKS
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Top NFL Betting Expert Picks For Conference Championship Week

Steve Janik's NFL betting picks for the Conference Championship Round. He analyzes NFL Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.

San Francisco and Minnesota made me a little nervous early, scoring 24 combined points in the first half, but things slowed down in the second and the under hit comfortably. Baltimore just totally fell apart, and were stunned by the Titans, after being the top seed in the AFC. Green Bay teetered on blowing their lead, and thanks to a generous first down by the refs, they held on and covered the 4.5 point spread.

We have just two weeks of football left, which puts some pressure on handicappers to help those looking for insight to finish the season strong. We push on and look at recent trends, along with individual player playoff history to drive our research and make the best informed decisions possible.

Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season. Good luck!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

Editor's Note: Here's a really nice special offer for all RotoBaller readers and prop picks hounds out there, from our friends at the fastest growing DFS site, Monkey Knife Fight. New AND Existing Player Bonus - All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'RBNFL19'.  Sign up and deposit, and use our picks below to get off on a winning foot! 

 

Green Bay at San Francisco (-7.5)

O/U: 46.5 

As winners of their last six, Green Bay is peaking at the absolute right time. Aaron Rodgers and company have averaged 353 yards per game in that stretch, and while they've only scored 25 or more twice, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams are weapons every remaining team would beg to have. An interesting split stat is that Rodgers is 1-2 in Conference Championship games with a 4/5 TD/Int. Defensively, the Packers have been stout, allowing more than 265 yards of offense just once over the six-game win streak, but they've been very streaky all season, so at any moment they could fold. The 49ers don't just love to run the ball, they're also very good at it, rushing for 143ypg over the last seven, so Green Bay will need to focus on stopping the run over anything.

San Francisco took care of business in their first playoff game since 2013, defeating Minnesota 27-10. Jimmy Garoppolo wasn't needed for much, throwing for just 122 yards, with a touchdown and interception in his first career playoff game. Like Kyle Shanahan has done all season, the 49ers grounded and pounded their way to 186 yards and two scores and the Vikings had no match. The Packers Defense can easily be run on, but they have had their moments of being an elite run defense this year. On the 49ers defensive side, they brought their top effort post bye week. Richard Sherman, Nick Bosa, and the rest of the Niners defense are able to take over a game in a handful of plays, but the Packers will certainly be a fair match.

After wins this season, Green Bay has seen the total go under eight times, while San Francisco has had the total go under seven times. Rodgers doesn't have a great Conference Championship portfolio but their weapons are arguably the best of the remaining team. The 49ers Defense is the best remaining unit on that side of the ball, which gives them a big boost, on top of their love of running the ball. I see a close, low-scoring affair on tap in the NFC Championship game.

Pick: Green Bay +7.5 and Under 46.5

 

Tennessee at Kansas City (-7.5)

O/U: 52 

Tennessee continues to roll through the playoffs, while shocking some of the top NFL fan bases with upset wins over the Patriots and the top-seeded Ravens. Derrick Henry might on one the best stretches of football in the last 20 years; he's rushed for over 100 yards in seven of the last eight games, which includes six games with 149 yards or more. While Ryan Tannehill was an enormous part of the Titans getting into the playoffs, he's been equally unneeded over the last two games, throwing for just 160 yards on 15 completions with three touchdowns and an interception. Defensively, Tennessee has been pretty vulnerable to giving up yards, but keeping points off the board. This is evidenced by the 13 points allowed per game and 379 ypg over the last three contests.

The Chiefs are coming in fresh off one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history; overcoming an early 24-point deficit, Kansas City showed that they're for real by dropping 41 unanswered points. Patrick Mahomes' five touchdown passes are what most expected out of the third-year signal caller this season, which hints that he's getting hot at the perfect time. His favorite target was Travis Kelce, to the tune of of 134 yards and three touchdowns, so if the Chiefs can get Tyreek Hill going, this offense will be deadly at home. The Chiefs Defense is easily the weakest of the remaining teams, and this is the same defense that gave up 188 rushing yards to Derrick Henry in Week 10. If they're unable to contain him, this could have the similar making of last week's game.

Both of these offenses are dangerous in their own ways, while their defenses have their weaknesses. Compared to the NFC Championship game, this matchup has the makings of a shootout. Early and often, the Titans might let Tannehill throw it around a little more than normal, which will catch KC off guard. Meanwhile, the Chiefs offense will want to prove that their 41-point outburst wasn't a fluke, so they should come out, guns blazing.

Pick: 1st Half Over 25.5

More Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Coby White

Questionable for Friday's Matchup
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Questionable With Knee Issue Ahead Of Friday
Jameson Williams

Explodes for 144 Yards, Touchdown on Thanksgiving
Dontayvion Wicks

Breaks Out for Two Touchdowns on Thanksgiving
Jordan Love

Lights Up Lions for Four Touchdowns on Thanksgiving
Stephen Curry

Expected To Miss About A Week With Quad Injury
Michael Porter Jr.

Won't Play Friday Versus 76ers
Paul George

Faces Game-Time Call Against Nets
VJ Edgecombe

Sidelined Again Against Nets
Joel Embiid

Out Again Friday vs. Nets
Paolo Banchero

Ruled Out Again Friday With Groin Injury
Jalen Williams

Set to Make Season Debut Friday
Chris Olave

Misses Thursday's Practice
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Will Miss 1-2 Weeks
DeVonta Smith

Off the Injury Report, Cleared for Friday's Game vs. the Bears
Jaxson Dart

Clears Concussion Protocol, Set to Return vs. the Patriots
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Downgraded to Out, Won't Return on Thursday
Daniel Jones

Dealing With Fractured Fibula, Will Play Through it
Jonathan Kuminga

Hoping to Return on Saturday Versus Pelicans
Stephen Curry

to Undergo an MRI
Josh Jacobs

Feels Close to 100%
Brady Tkachuk

Aims to Return Friday
Matthew Tkachuk

Resumes Skating
Jakob Chychrun

Stretches Point Streak to Nine Games
Matej Blumel

Expected to Miss Some Time
Marcus Foligno

Exits With Injury Wednesday
Jaden Schwartz

Suffers Lower-Body Injury Wednesday
Trendon Watford

to Sit Out at Least Two Weeks
Gradey Dick

Injured on Wednesday
RJ Barrett

to Be Re-Evaluated in One Week
Anthony Davis

on the Cusp of Returning
Gary Payton II

Hurt in Wednesday's Loss
Stephen Curry

Diagnosed With Quadriceps Contusion
Alvin Kamara

Doesn't Practice on Wednesday
Lukas Dostal

Out Wednesday Night
Sean Durzi

Available Against Canadiens
Thomas Chabot

to Remain Out Wednesday
Jared McCann

Expected to Rejoin Kraken Lineup Wednesday
Andre Burakovsky

a Game-Time Decision Wednesday
Zach Edey

Good to Go Versus New Orleans
Mikko Rantanen

Returns to Stars Lineup Wednesday
J.K. Dobbins

Could Return Later This Season
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Available on Wednesday
Mark Stone

Ready to Return Wednesday
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Good to go on Wednesday
Dylan Cease

Agrees With Blue Jays on Seven-Year, $210 Million Deal
Norman Powell

Back in Action Wednesday
Terry McLaurin

Plans to Play on Sunday Night
Anthony Rendon

Angels Could Buy Out Final Year of Anthony Rendon's Contract
Brandon Aiyuk

49ers Won't Open Brandon Aiyuk's Practice Window This Week
Joe Burrow

Bengals Officially Activate Joe Burrow for a Return on Thanksgiving
C.J. Stroud

Practicing Wednesday
Trey Benson

Spotted at Practice on Wednesday
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Back at Practice Wednesday
DeVonta Smith

Missing From Practice Again on Wednesday
Josh Hader

Says his Shoulder is "Back to Normal"
Ketel Marte

Diamondbacks "Actively Listening" on Ketel Marte
Jaxson Dart

to be a Full Participant at Wednesday's Practice
Dalton Kincaid

has "a Chance" to Play in Week 13
Josh Norris

Nearing Return
Kevin Lankinen

Not Traveling With Canucks
Zach Werenski

Escapes Serious Injury, May Play Wednesday
Auston Matthews

Could Be an Option Wednesday
Jason Robertson

Scores in Seventh Consecutive Game
Wyatt Johnston

Ends Dry Spell With Four-Point Performance
Vinnie Hinostroza

to Miss 4-6 Weeks
Pyotr Kochetkov

Dealing With Undisclosed Injury
J.T. Realmuto

Red Sox Showing Interest in J.T. Realmuto
Sonny Gray

Red Sox Acquire Sonny Gray From the Cardinals
CFB

Jeremiah Smith, Makai Lemon, Skyler Bell Named Biletnikoff Award Finalists
Shohei Ohtani

to Play for Team Japan in 2026 World Baseball Classic
Colorado Rockies

Warren Schaeffer to Stick Around as Rockies Manager in 2026
CFB

Chris Bell Out for Rivalry Matchup Against Kentucky
Ryan Helsley

Tigers Eyeing Ryan Helsley as a Starter
Dan Hooker

Suffers Second-Round Submission Loss
Marcus Semien

Shipped to the Mets on Sunday
Arman Tsarukyan

Gets Submission Win
Brandon Nimmo

Traded to Texas
Belal Muhammad

Loses Back-to-Back Fights
Belal Muhammad

Ian Machado Garry Outpoints Belal Muhammad
Alonzo Menifield

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Volkan Oezdemir

Gets Back In The Win Column
Jack Hermansson

Gets Knocked Out
Jack Hermansson

Myktybek Orolbai Knocks Out Jack Hermansson
Shamil Gaziev

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Shines At UFC Qatar
Tagir Ulanbekov

Suffers Third-Round Submission Loss
Kyoji Horiguchi

Makes Triumphant UFC Return

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP