RADIO
Mark McWhirter lists his top 10 fantasy football lineup busts and NFL players to avoid for Week 13 of the 2020 NFL season, based on bad matchups.
LET'S GET READY TO RUMBLE! It's officially the last week of the fantasy regular season and it's time to push all the chips in as you prepare for battle. For those of you facing a win-or-go-home scenario, there is no tomorrow and it's a long wait until next season. Managers can ill-afford to leave valuable fantasy points on the bench this week in favor of underperforming starters.
Throughout the season, it is important to trust the process. If you get it right more often than not, you will likely find yourself in a playoff spot. That logic does not apply to a one-week affair in which every detail must be analyzed to avoid submarining your lineup. Thankfully, our excellent RotoBaller team is here to help with expert analysis for every fantasy football matchup.
Tom Brady and his arsenal of weapons are on bye, as are the Panthers. For those requiring reinforcements, our team dives into the top waiver-wire pickups each week. Those pickups may prove vital if you happen to be planning to start any of the ten players listed below. May the odds be ever in your favor and I'll see you in the playoffs, RotoBallers!
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Tyler Boyd vs. Miami Dolphins
Brandon Allen was … less than stellar in his debut performance for the now Joe Burrow-less Bengals. This had a severe trickle-down effect on his trio of normally fantasy-relevant receivers. I say “normally” because there is a real chance that none of the three are relevant moving forward. That is an unfortunate and difficult reality that those rostering the likes of Boyd and Tee Higgins have to face. Many predicted that Boyd would be safe even with the major quarterback downgrade due to his frequent presence in the slot. Allen is not capable of completing passes at any level of the field, however, and there is simply no touchdown upside for anyone in this offense anymore. Boyd, Higgins, and A.J. Green combined to produce eight catches for 59 yards last week. Higgins managed to find the end zone and will have the most upside of anyone in this group due to his knack for doing so. Boyd’s safe floor has crumbled from underneath him and Green can be sent to waiver wires.
It would be difficult to confidently insert Boyd into lineups even if Cincinnati were facing a soft matchup. The Dolphins allow the fifteenth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position but have tightened up recently. Miami’s defensive unit has been no worse than thirteenth against fantasy receivers the past three weeks. Boyd may escape the likes of Byron Jones and Xavien Howard but it will not be enough to elevate him in a matchup with the fourth-best defense in terms of completion percentage allowed. For those tempted to roll with Higgins, the Dolphins have yielded the second-fewest passing touchdowns in the league. Avoid Bengals until or unless we see this team figure out its post-Burrow strategy.
Matt Ryan vs. New Orleans Saints
Matt Ryan really needs Julio Jones and we witnessed the latest demonstration of this last week against the Raiders. In eight games with Jones in the lineup, Ryan has five top-twelve performances. In the three games sans Jones, Ryan has been the QB27, QB25, and QB17. Jones wasn’t practicing as of Thursday and is in danger of missing a second straight game.
The Saints concede only 14.5 points per game to fantasy gunslingers, best in the NFL. Opposing offenses have averaged seven points per game over the past month against New Orleans and have been held to just three points in two of those matchups. Granted, they didn’t face an actual quarterback last week in Denver. Still, Brady threw for just 209 yards against this defense in Week 9, with no touchdowns and three interceptions. Nick Mullens tossed a couple of picks the following week and Ryan himself completed two passes to the Saints in Week 11 while failing to find the end zone. All in all, New Orleans has registered nine picks over the last four weeks, surrendering just one touchdown pass along the way. I wouldn’t start Ryan this week even if Jones plays. Without Jones, it shouldn’t be a debate.
Travis Fulgham vs. Green Bay Packers
Travis Fulgham emerged as a go-to option for the Eagles in Week 4 and rode that wave of momentum until the team’s Week 9 bye. An entirely different Fulgham emerged from the bye week, as the receiver who had averaged 87 yards per game in his previous five contests has managed just 10.7 yards per game since. He had still been a full-time player, at least, until seeing his snap percentage drop to a season-low 51% last week. That number was down from 96% a week prior and coincided with Alshon Jeffery’s snap count rising from 7% to 50%.
Rookie Jalen Reagor is playing more than either receiver, Zach Ertz could be back this week, and Dallas Goedert has proven to be Wentz’s clear number-one target. Without even factoring in the Eagles’ tendency to throw to the running back position, it is clear that Fulgham faces steep competition for target volume. He’ll need that volume in this matchup, as the Packers are twelfth against the wide receiver position in addition to being seventh versus quarterbacks. The Packers are the third-easiest matchup for running backs and teams have chosen to exploit this vulnerability rather than testing Jaire Alexander and company. No Eagles’ pass-catcher other than Goedert can be started in fantasy for the time being.
James Conner vs. Washington Football Team
Washington’s defense completely shut down Ezekiel Elliott last week, holding him to an RB58 showing and constraining the Cowboys’ backfield as a whole to just 5.6 points. This was on the heels of holding the Bengals’ backfield to only 10.1 fantasy points. This is not out of the ordinary for Washington, as the Football Team ranks fifth against fantasy rushers on the season, allowing 17.4 points per game to the position. They rank twelfth in yards per carry allowed and ninth in rushing touchdowns given up.
While the matchup is concerning, if not daunting, it is Conner’s own usage that is most worrisome. Prior to missing last week’s game due to being placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list, Conner had finished as the RB19, RB34, and RB55 in his three previous contests. Averaging 18.3 touches per game over his first seven outings, Conner averaged only 14 touches during that disappointing stretch. It’s not that Conner has lost his grip on the lead job. Rather, it’s that Pittsburgh has refrained from handing the ball off to their running backs.
Through the first six weeks of the 2020 campaign, Steelers’ running backs combined to average 25.8 carries per game. Over the past five games, the Pittsburgh backfield has seen that number dip to 17.8 carries. With Benny Snell being worked in and designed runs being manufactured for Chase Claypool near the goal line, Conner’s touch-ceiling and touchdown-upside have both taken a hit. He hasn’t been a significant factor in the receiving game all year, having surpassed nineteen yards only twice and having accumulated only 33 yards over his past four games. Most GMs probably can’t afford to bench Conner, but he needs to be downgraded to a low-end RB2 at best in this matchup.
Michael Gallup vs. Baltimore Ravens
Yikes. That’s the automatic reaction generated from a glance at Michael Gallup’s fantasy finishes this season. He’s finished above WR37 once and has ranked as WR57 or worse on seven occasions. Gallup has caught more than three passes just four times, and one of those was a four-catch performance. He has also topped 41 receiving yards just once in his last five games while finding the end zone only once the entire year. Talent is not an issue for Gallup. This offense just understandably does not have the same juice without its quarterback and/or offensive line.
The Ravens pose an additional obstacle for Gallup to overcome, as they rank fourth against fantasy receivers. They have been burned the past two weeks but were missing key players due to injury and Reserve/COVID-19 list placements. For the season, Baltimore has allowed the ninth-fewest passing yards, sixth-fewest receiving scores, and second-fewest yards per reception. Gallup’s target share has dropped to 15.3% this year after commanding a 21.7% share in 2019. With a lack of targets, minimal touchdown upside, a downgraded quarterback situation, and an imposing matchup, the red flags are crystal clear in this one.
Logan Thomas vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Whenever a tight end hits the five-target mark it causes amusing excitement in fantasyland. Such is the state of the position in 2020 that a player who has topped 31 receiving yards just three times can be picked up and started. That was the case last week against the Cowboys’ joke of a defense, but it is not the case versus a why-so-serious Steelers’ unit. The Steelers have allowed the fewest passing yards, third-fewest receiving yards, third-lowest yards per passing attempt, and lowest opposing completion percentage in the NFL. All of those metrics translate to their numbers against tight ends, as the Steelers surrender the fewest points per game to the position at 5.7
The best tight end performances against Pittsburgh this year came from Noah Fant, Austin Hooper, and Dalton Schultz. Fant was the TE8 all the way back in Week 2 and has been the only tight end to find the end zone against the Steelers. Hooper was the TE15 in Week 6 on a line of five catches for 52 yards and Schultz was the TE15 in Week 9 with four catches for 48 yards. Otherwise, no tight end has outperformed Mark Andrews’ Week 8 showing of three catches for 32 scoreless yards, which placed him at TE21 for the week.
Thomas is averaging only 30 receiving yards per game and has relied on touchdowns to produce for fantasy. Outside of his TE7 finish in Week 10, he has failed to place inside the top-26 in any game in which he has failed to find the end zone. With the Steelers having allowed only one receiving touchdown to tight ends, managers willing to roll the dice are likely to come up with snake eyes.
Carson Wentz vs. Green Bay Packers
Maybe the Eagles can get Nick Foles back from Chicago? Fantasy managers and Eagles fans are united in their frustrations with Wentz’s poor play. The struggling quarterback hasn’t topped 235 passing yards in his past four games and has done so only twice in his past nine contests. He’s not making up for the lack of yardage either, as he has just six touchdowns compared to five interceptions over the last four weeks. He somewhat saved his fantasy day against Seattle by rushing for 42 yards, but this has not been a consistently prominent feature to show up on game day, as evident by Wentz being held to seventeen or fewer rushing yards in seven of eleven matchups this year.
Last week was Wentz’s first usable game in a month and he scraped and clawed to get there against a Seahawks Defense that allows the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. His 19.8 points still fell well short of the 24.9 Seattle normally gives up. Green Bay, meanwhile, is seventh against quarterbacks, although they have been more generous the past two weeks. The underlying numbers hint at a less-scary matchup, as the Packers allow the twelfth-highest completion percentage and are middle-of-the-pack in both passing yards and touchdowns conceded. Wentz’s offensive line is doing him no favors, as he has been sacked 46 times, which is eleven more than any other quarterback. This reduces the likelihood of Wentz taking advantage of even favorable matchups. With only two teams on bye, there should be plenty of more attractive options available outside of two-quarterback leagues.
Todd Gurley II vs. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are just too good on defense right now. No Broncos running back checked in above RB41 last week versus New Orleans and Gurley himself led the way for the Falcons in Week 11 against the Saints with an RB45 performance. That recent run of good form continues a season-long dominance against the running game. New Orleans allows the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields at just 14.5 per game, nearly a full point ahead of the second-place Steelers and 2.4 ahead of the third-place Falcons. For good measure, the Saints allow a league-low 3.3 yards per carry and have surrendered both the fewest rushing scores and yards.
The lack of rushing scores allowed is a big factor for Gurley, as he frequently relies on end zone trips to bail out bad performances. He has been inefficient on the ground, posting a yards per carry mark of 3.65. This has resulted in just two games with more than 63 rushing yards. His lack of receiving work furthers his touchdown dependence, as Gurley has accumulated only five receiving yards over his last three outings combined. Coming off a knee injury that forced him to miss last week’s game, Gurley is no lock to even suit up in this contest and will likely be at less than 100% if he does. While the former fantasy-MVP has been solid for managers this year, expect a performance similar to his last outing against this division rival, and don’t risk him torpedoing your lineup.
Sammy Watkins vs. Denver Broncos
Sammy Watkins returned from an extended injury absence last week to see seven targets from the red-hot Patrick Mahomes. Watkins has actually seen at least seven targets in four of six games that he has suited up in this season. That type of volume should produce strong results coming from a quarterback of Mahomes’ caliber. The problem is that the Chiefs simply do not need him. While he remains the third option, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have been so dominant that the team’s other options mustn’t be relied on. This explains Watkins’ inability to finish above WR37 more than once this campaign.
Denver ranks eleventh against fantasy receivers, and while they are unlikely to shut Mahomes down, they are more than capable of holding his ancillary weapons in check. Michael Thomas was the leading Saints’ receiver at WR48 last week in Denver, and while DeVante Parker managed a WR15 finish in Week 11, no other Dolphins’ receiver placed above WR68. Additionally, no Raiders’ receiver finished above WR60 the week prior, meaning there is very little to go around for secondary and tertiary receiving options versus the Broncos. Denver has allowed only 15.9 points per game to the receiver position during that stretch. Once Tyreek Hill gets his, there won’t be much leftover. The Broncos allow the fourth-fewest yards per reception and the fifth-fewest receiving scores in the NFL, meaning that Watkins will require volume in order to produce. Definitely don’t avoid Chiefs, but don’t play Watkins unless desperate.
Jimmy Graham vs. Detroit Lions
Jimmy Graham has failed to finish above TE20 in five of his past six outings. His lone exception came in a TE2 performance against the Titans in Week 9. That was not Graham’s first time coming through in a big way for fantasy managers, as he was the top tight end in Week 3. The floor has remained extremely low throughout the year, however, as Graham has finished outside the top-20 on seven different occasions, averaging 3.7 points during those contests. Like most tight ends, Graham’s fantasy success is almost entirely dependent on touchdowns, as he has only finished with more than 34 receiving yards twice on the season.
Coming off a season-low snap percentage of 58 in Week 9, Graham’s playing time was further reduced coming out of the bye week, as he played only 36% of snaps last game. That was not by accident, as rookie second-rounder Cole Kmet has played 70% and 79% of snaps over the last two weeks. Detroit has been surprisingly formidable against the tight end position, allowing only eight points per game, good enough for ninth in the NFL. While they encountered a rough stretch through Weeks 7-10, allowing at least one top-twelve performance in each of those matchups, they have redeemed themselves by surrendering just 0.4 points to the position over the past two weeks combined. Outside of that rough stretch, no tight end has finished inside the top-twelve against the Lions. Graham did find the end zone versus Detroit in Week 1, but only three tight ends have caught a touchdown pass against them since. With the odds favoring a scoreless game for Graham, there is no reason to entrust him in lineups.
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