RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Tuesday, 11th, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/11/23
The league is approaching the final stretch run as many teams fight for a date with Lord Stanley and we have already started to see some teams like the Boston Bruins playing their star players less, to rest them for playoffs. This will become a bigger trend as we close in on playoffs and it can impact fantasy in a big way. It is important to understand this when making roster decisions. Tonight we have a 10-game slate with no teams playing on a back-to-back: Washington, Detroit, Carolina, Buffalo, Toronto, Chicago, Minnesota, Winnipeg, Seattle and Vancouver. Teams in need of wins to keep their playoff hopes alive are Pittsburgh and Winnipeg. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Pittsburgh with 4.6, New Jersey Devils with 4.2 and Boston with 3.9. I will do my best to guide you through this eleven-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Carter Hart-DK $8K || FD $7.4K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
At this point in the season, the Flyers have been eliminated from playoffs and they are continuing to put their players in different situations to assess the current roster heading into the offseason. As of now, Hart is expected to start at home against the Blue Jackets who are currently being outscored 8 to 28 in their last five away games. Columbus is also the tenth-worst in Expected Goals For Per 60 when comparing their last 10 games to their season average. With many viable options on the slate at goaltender, Hart looks to possess the safest floor along with a potential ceiling game.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Jarry (DK $8.4K || FD $7.9K), Brossoit (DK $7.9K || FD $8.2K)
Centers
Sidney Crosby-DK $7.7K || FD $8K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
All Penguins fans can take a deep sigh of relief – depending on what note you want to end on –. The Islanders lost last night in dramatic fashion to an Ovechkinless Capitals 5-2, opening up a pathway for the Penguins to make the postseason if they are able to win their final two games – vs. Chicago and at Columbus –. To no surprise, captain Sidney Crosby is playing out of his mind right now, carrying any and all aspects of the team on his shoulders. In his last five games, he has 2 goals, 4 assists, 12 shots and 4 blocked shots. His stats may not show how big of an impact he is having on the ice, but a solid eye test can see very clearly. Chicago is coming off a 4-2 loss to the Minnesota Wild at home last night and they will now travel to Pittsburgh. The Blackhawks are being outscored 9 to 22 in their last five away games and that is with ‘solid’ goaltending. They are currently bottom three in the league in Shots Against Per 60, Scoring Chances Against Per 60 and High Danger Chances Against Per 60 when comparing their last 10 games to their season averages. The Penguins are in desperation mode to reach the postseason for a 17th straight season and Crosby will be at the center of all production.
Pavel Zacha- DK $4.1K || FD $5.5K
Opponent - Washington Capitals
With the Bruins setting the all-time wins record in a single season in both the franchise and the league with 63 wins, they are now resting bodies to be ready for a possible dance with the Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round of the playoffs. Due to players resting, other players like Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha are getting extended minutes in both even strength and special teams. Zacha is currently centering a line with Tyler Bertuzzi and David Pastrnak which will see the worst defensive line for the Capitals tonight. In the two games that Zacha has had his role elevated, he has 3 goals, 1 assist and 6 shots. Despite the Capitals winning last night and possibly eliminating the Islanders from playoffs, they are struggling mightily when away – outscored 12 to 20 in their last 5 away games –. Furthermore, expected starter Charlie Lindgren has conceded 21 Goals Against in his last five starts. This is a perfect spot for value play Zacha to have another big game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Miller (DK $6.7K || FD $7.4K), Cates (DK $3.7K || FD $4.4K)
Wings
Brock Boeser - DK $5.2K || FD $5.7K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks have a healthy squad coming into this game, which means their defense opens up tenfold. Troy Terry and Adam Henrique are two solid offensive contributors, but their defense is subpar at best. Boeser and the top line for the Canucks will see one of two terrible defensive lines for the Ducks tonight. Boeser has 1 goal, 1 assist and 22 shots in his last five games. He is struggling to get the puck in the net, despite averaging 4 shots per game in that window and tonight is the perfect chance for him to break his goal drought. The Ducks are in the bottom half of the league in Scoring Chances Against Per 60, High Danger Chances Per 60 and Expected Goals Against Per 60 when comparing their last 10 games to their season averages. Furthermore, the Ducks need to lose this match as much as possible in a shot at the best possible odds of drafting NHL Draft darling Connor Bedard. For under $5.5K salary on DraftKings, Boeser may be the best-valued winger on the slate.
Owen Tippett- DK $5.9K || FD $5.7K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
For those that watched Tippett in juniors, it is no surprise that he is outproducing so many talented players on the Flyers roster in his first full season as an NHL player. In Tippett’s last five appearances, he has 1 goal, 2 assists and 24 shots – one shot shy of the DraftKings shot bonus, 5 or more shots –. Tippett is in a similar funk to that of Brock Boeser who was highlighted above. They both are shooting plenty, but they cannot score currently. Along with Boeser, Tippett also has a great matchup tonight against arguably the second-worst defense in the league. The Blue Jackets' defensive woes were mentioned above in Hart’s highlight. Tippett and the second line for the Flyers will see the worst defensive line for the Blue Jackets tonight, providing a plethora of opportunities.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Pastrnak (DK $10K || FD $10.4K), Guentzel (DK $7.3K || FD $7.6K)
Defense
Samuel Girard- DK $3.6K || FD $4.9K
Opponent - Edmonton Oilers
Girard is beginning to soak up more and more time with teammate Bowen Byram also missing the past few games due to an illness. That leaves the majority of the ice time and power-play time to Devon Toews and Samuel Girard. Girard in his last five games, has 3 assists, 7 shots and 11 blocked shots. In that time frame, Girard hit the blocked shots bonus on DraftKings – 3 or more blocked shots in a game – 3 times. In a match that will be extremely fast-paced and full of events, Girard will undoubtedly reach and exceed value with a bulk of the defensive responsibilities on his shoulders.
John Marino- DK $2.8K || FD $4K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Marino is strictly a game-time decision with teammate Dougie Hamilton missing practice yesterday due to illness. If Hamilton does miss tonight, Marino will most likely take over the top power-play duties, while Damon Severson remains on the second power-play. In the last five games, Marino has 4 assists, 6 shots and 8 blocked shots. This will be a contest of two top young teams vying for ice and Marino has proven that he can step up when the top players are out during his time with the Penguins. If Hamilton is ultimately out, this is a huge steal and a great value play.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Letang (DK $6.3K || FD $6.8K), Hughes (DK $5.6K || FD $6.9K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- PIT1
- VAN1
- EDM1
- COL1
- BOS1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- PHI: Hayes-Cates-Tippett
Chalk Stack
- PIT: Guentzel-Crosby-Rakell
Sneaky Stack
- CBJ: Gaudreau-Jenner-Boqvist
