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Brandon Wampler's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for February 16th, 2023 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays and stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Thursday, 16th, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/16/23
The trade market is starting to open up and more and more moves will be made as we get closer to the trade deadline – March 3rd –. Be aware of late-minute scratches. Tonight we have a 9-game slate and two teams playing on a back-to-back: Ottawa and Florida. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Calgary with 4.2, Carolina with 4.2 and Vegas with 3.9 goals. I will do my best in guiding you through this eight-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Sergei Bobrovsky- DK $7.7K || FD $7.7K
Opponent - Washington Capitals
There are plenty of ‘value’ or ‘viable’ plays tonight at goalie, however, not many of them hold a legitimate chance of winning their respective matchup. Bobrovsky does fit the bill though thanks to Ovechkin not being with the Capitals at the moment – rest in piece Ovi’s father –. Over Bobrovsky’s last five games, he is 3-2 while producing south of a 0.900 Save Percentage just once. The Capitals on the other hand have been outscored 16-10 in their last five games. In the first game without Ovechkin, the Capitals lost 3-2 to the Hurricanes after their tying goal was called back. Furthermore, both goals came from the bottom-six which is not sustainable game after game. This provides Bobrovsky with the shot of having a reliable floor due to the Capitals' shoot-first mentality and a win thanks to their best scorer missing.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Montembeault (DK $7.2K || FD $6.7K), Korpisalo (DK $7K || FD $7.3K)
Centers
Nico Hischier-DK $6.8K || FD $7.3K
Opponent - St Louis Blues
For the time being, Hischier is the lucky candidate to be highlighted against the Blues, however, it is possible that his better teammate Jack Hughes returns tonight in which case all focus would go toward him. Nevertheless, Hischier has undoubtedly showcased how bad of a player he is without someone like Jack Hughes on the team. Hischier has regressed back to his early years of the NHL where he cracked the 50 points mark just once in 4 seasons – 52 points in his only full season –. Despite all of the negative production, the Blues are a terrible defensive team and over the season they are in the bottom third for Shots Against Per 60 – 30.86 –, the seventh-worst in Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 30.45 – and the sixth-worst in Goals Against Per 60 – 2.93 –.
Eetu Luostarinen- DK $3.4K || FD $5.1K
Opponent - Washington Capitals
It is looking increasingly likely that teammate Sam Bennett will not suit up tonight in Washington. IF this is to happen, Luostarinen instantly becomes the lock of the night. The new third-line center was bumped to the second-line after Bennett left in the second period in the 6-2 loss to the Blues on Tuesday. In Luostarinen’s last five games, he has 3 goals, 2 assists, 10 shots and 4 blocked shots. The majority of this production came with lesser-skilled linemates. If he is able to slot in between Verhaeghe and Tkachuk, he will be the top-value play of the night.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Eichel (DK $7.8K || FD $8.3K), Lindholm (DK $5.3K || FD $6.5K)
Wings
Blake Wheeler- DK $5.1K || FD $6.6K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
Wheeler is the only consistent player on the Jets’ team besides defenseman Joshua Morrissey at the moment and it shows. Over Wheeler’s last five games, he has 3 goals, 4 assists, 7 shots and 2 blocked shots. His shot volume is nowhere where we need it, but he is going up against the Blue Jackets tonight who rank at the bottom of the league in every meaningful statistic. Over the season, the Blue Jackets are the second-worst team in both Shots Against Per 60 – 34.1 – and Goals Against Per 60 – 3.26 – they are also the sixth-worst in Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 31.03 –. Wheeler and company are in a good spot for a big performance to break out of this neverending slump.
Dillon Dube- DK $4.2K || FD $5.2K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
Dube could be yet another instant lock tonight. The winger has 3 goals, 3 assists and 15 shots over his last five games – all 6 points in his last two games –. The Red Wings are playing on the second-half of their back-to-back in Calgary tonight after beating the Oilers in a 5-4 shootout thriller last night in Edmonton. The Red Wings beat the Flames a week ago 2-1 and this will have a revenge narrative written all over it. Add to the fact that outside of that match and the game against the offenseless Canucks, the last time they held a team to 1 or fewer goals was on January 12th when they beat a Matthewsless Maple Leafs 4-1. With the Red Wings traveling for the second-half of their back-to-back and played in a shootout, it is expected that they will be gassed tonight, leaving plenty of opportunities for Dube in a sound matchup against the Red Wings’ second-line.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Marchessault (DK $6.6K || FD $7K), Teravainen (DK $4.7K || FD $5.7K)
Defense
Adam Boqvist- DK $3.2K || FD $4.8K
Opponent - Winnipeg Jets
With teammate Vladislav Gavrikov being scratched due to ‘Trade Related Reasons’, in his first game without him, Boqvist took on an extra two minutes of ice time and he did not disappoint. He managed a goal, an assist, one shot and three blocked shots in the 3-2 loss to the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday. Looking further in his last five games, he has 1 goal, 4 assists, 11 shots and 7 blocked shots. Those are solid numbers for someone just above the minimum salary on DraftKings and in a ‘good’ matchup. The Jets are by far the most inconsistent team in the NHL at the time of writing and they have just outscored their opponents 13-12 in the last five games. With Boqvist quarterbacking the top power-play, he will have plenty of chances to get in the point column tonight.
Mackenzie Weegar- DK $4.3K || FD $4.4K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
Teammate Rasmus Andersson is expected to still be out tonight against the Red Wings as he recovers from getting hit by a car. In his absence, Weegar has taken over all of Andersson’s responsibilities and has not looked back. In the three games, Weegar has 1 assist, 9 shots and 4 blocked shots. His point production has yet to jump, but his peripherals have increased tenfold. The Red Wings have been aforementioned. Weegar is in a great spot tonight and one of the better spots on defense.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Morrissey (DK $6.2K || FD $7.5K), Savard (DK $4K || FD $5.2K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- VGK1
- CGY1
- WPG1
- CAR1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- BOS: Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak
Chalk Stack
- WPG: Ehlers-Dubois-Connor
Sneaky Stack
- WAS: Mantha-Sheary-Orlov
