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Brandon Wampler's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for January 7th, 2023 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays and stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Saturday, 7th, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 1/7/23
The year 2023 has started off with less than desirable outcomes and at times, games can be much harder to predict than normal. Tonight we will dial it back with a manageable 7-game slate and we will have two teams playing on a back-to-back, Detroit and San Jose. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Toronto with 4.3, Boston with 4.1 and St Louis with 3.7 goals. I will do my best in guiding you through this seven-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Linus Ullmark- DK $8.5K || FD $8.7K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
Ullmark looks to be in line to return to the crease in a late-night battle in San Jose. The netminder is the top goalie in the league for those that have played 5 or more games when assessing Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 – 0.89 –. Furthermore, San Jose is coming off an overtime 5-4 loss to the Anaheim Ducks after Tomas Hertl coughed up the puck at the blueline and they will be a little defeated after giving up a 2-goal lead. Ullmark is riding a 4-game win streak where he has not posted below a 0.923 Save Percentage and it would not be surprising to best that against the Sharks.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Murray (DK $8.4K || FD $8.4K), Binnington (DK $8.2K || FD $7K)
Centers
Patrice Bergeron-DK $7K || FD $7.5K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
Bergeron will be without a doubt a lock at the center position tonight. His salary is too forgiving when considering the ‘old’ Bruins topline is back together with linemates Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak joining Bergeron due to the injury to Jake Debrusk. In the first game with Pastrnak on the line, Bergeron had 0 points, 4 shots and 2 blocked shots. Despite not scoring or assisting, that should change pretty quickly, as long as this trio is together. The Sharks do not concede too many Shots Against or Scoring Chances Against in their last 10 games. However, they are dead last in Goals Against Per 60 – 3.37 –. It would be a big surprise if Bergeron were to not find the scoresheet here.
John Tavares- DK $6.4K || FD $8.1K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
Here we are once more with the Maple Leafs’ second-line and hopefully this time they will pull through – the last time the top-line for the Leafs popped off –. Either way, both lines are viable, but once again Tavares has a slightly better matchup against the Red Wings who are playing on the second-half of a back-to-back. Over Tavares’s last five games, he has 2 goals, 2 assists and 11 shots. The production is not there, however, this is a great spot to kickstart Tavares and company again. The Red Wings are expecting to start Alex Nedeljkovic in the net against the Maple Leafs and he is the second-worst goalie when analyzing Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 with 5 or more games played – -1.297 –.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Eichel (DK $7.3K || FD $9.2K), Thomas (DK $4.8K || FD $6.4K)
Wings
Brad Marchand- DK $7K || FD $8K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
Similar to teammate Patrice Bergeron, there is little reason why Marchand is priced so low. In his last five games, he has 2 goals, 4 assists, 19 shots and 3 blocked shots and now he gets old linemate David Pastrnak back. In the trio’s first game together – 5-2 win against LA Kings –, Marchand scored once, assisted once and took one shot. Aforementioned, San Jose is playing on the second-half of a back-to-back and they just conceded 5 goals to Anaheim. This is a no-brainer play tonight.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins- DK $6.1K || FD $8.1K
Opponent - Colorado Avalanche
There are plenty of viable options around this salary range for wingers tonight, however, none of the other options play with Leon Draisaitl. Nugent-Hopkins has been promoted back to the top-line as a winger alongside power-play mate Draisaitl. In the first two games since the move, Nugent-Hopkins has 1 goal, 2 assists and 2 shots. His salary will not stay manageable for long and tonight’s meeting with the Avalanche will be a fast-paced high-event game with a plethora of chances for the winger to extend his point-streak.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Marchessault (DK $6.8K || FD $7.2K), Hartman (DK $4.1K || FD $4.6K)
Defense
Morgan Rielly- DK $4.4K || FD $5.7K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
At this point, I am waiting for people to start throwing tomatoes and apples and anything else they have at me for continuously talking about Morgan Rielly. The defenseman has chances on chances to produce but he has not done it since his first two games back from injury. It also seems that the Maple Leafs’ core defense structure has taken a massive hit since Rielly has come back – to no surprise –. However, I will continue to highlight Rielly when in good matchups because his role is too good not to produce and you cannot find many better value options at defense tonight. Over his last four games, he has 1 assist, 7 shots and 7 blocked shots.
Colton Parayko- DK $4.3K || FD $4.4K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
One day, maybe one day Parayko will finally break through his shell and be the budding defenseman that everyone expects him to be. There is a reason that they kept him and at one point ex-teammate Vince Dunn over bringing Alex Pietrangelo back. The Blues believe in Parayko and he is been getting another chance to shine with teammate Torey Krug out. In that time, Parayko has been bumped up to the top-pairing and he has also been running the second power-play unit. However, he does not have much production to show for the added responsibilities. Through Parayko’s last five appearances, he has 3 assists, 12 shots and 6 blocked shots. Tonight he will have a good matchup going against the Canadiens who have conceded 26 goals in their last 4 games.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Dunn (DK $3.9K || FD $5.5K), Benning (DK $3.5K || FD $3.9K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- BOS1
- TOR1
- VGK1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- TOR: Nylander-Tavares-Marner
Chalk Stack
- BOS: Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak
Sneaky Stack
- VGK: Marchessault-Eichel-Smith
