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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Thursday Night Football - the Cowboys vs Saints showdown slate. His Week 13 TNF daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! Week 13 is here! This season has been going by super quickly, but truthfully I've been having a ton of success as well as a ton of fun. We have a rather interesting matchup tonight as the Cowboys (7-4) head down to the Big Easy to take on the Saints (5-6). Dallas is looking to gain some ground in the NFC East while the Saints are fighting to stay alive in the Wild Card race. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Thursday Night Football slate on December 2nd. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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DFS Captains/MVPs
Dak Prescott ($17,700 DK, $16,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 2,932 yards, 22 touchdowns, seven interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 31.8% (7th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 7.4% (13th)
Dak has been very good this year coming back from the gruesome injury that kept him out the majority of last season. While the last two weeks have been a struggle without Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, he should at the very least get Lamb back tonight. This game works out great for Dak fantasy-wise, despite the pass matchup being tough. The Saints are first in the NFL in rush DVOA, creating a passing funnel for Dallas. I expect Dak to light it up in New Orleans tonight.
Recommendation: Cash (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz
Dalton Schultz ($11,400 DK, $9,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 66 targets, 47 receptions, 537 yards, four touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Demario Davis): 12% target per route covered, 68% catch rate, 0.14 fantasy points per route.
Dalton Schultz was the biggest beneficiary of Lamb and Cooper being banged up, and he'll look to continue that momentum tonight. He's had eight and seven targets over his last two games respectively, and shouldn't gather too much ownership in the captain spot tonight. He has a solid matchup against Demario Davis and could end up paying off tremendously if Cooper is out and Lamb isn't 100%.
Recommendation: GPP (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Dak Prescott, Taysom Hill
Other Captain/MVP Plays: Taysom Hill, Mark Ingram
DFS Flex Plays
Taysom Hill ($9,600 DK, $7,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 56 passing yards, zero touchdowns, one interception, 20 rushing attempts, 104 rushing yards, three touchdowns.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 23.5% (10th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -9.9% (4th)
FanDuel gave us a free square tonight with Hill being priced at just $7,000, so he's a must-play there. DraftKings is a little different, and truthfully, I'm not super high on the Saints' offense tonight. Hill is their third starting quarterback in the last five weeks, and they're coming off of a game where they scored just six points. Hill also hasn't seen the field since week 10 and has only thrown the ball eight times all season. He's a great play on FD, but I'd tread with caution on DK.
Recommendation: Cash (FD)/GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: Deontae Harris, Alvin Kamara, Dak Prescott
CeeDee Lamb ($10,000 DK, $13,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 77 targets, 50 receptions, 740 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Marshon Lattimore): 16% target per route covered, 59% catch rate, 0.4 fantasy points per route.
CeeDee is cleared to play tonight after missing the last game and a half with a concussion. The second-year wide receiver has taken some incredible steps forward in this offense and looks to continue trending upward tonight. I love everyone in Dallas's passing offense tonight, and I feel like Lamb is a must-play if you're running Dak at CPT/MVP. Marshon Lattimore has been getting beat all year and should have his hands full with Lamb across from him tonight.
Recommendation: Cash (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Dak Prescott, Taysom Hill
Other Flex Plays: Alvin Kamara (Q), Tony Pollard, Michael Gallup
DFS Value Plays
Cowboys D/ST ($4,400 DK)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 244 points allowed, 24 sacks, 15 interceptions, four fumble recoveries, five defensive touchdowns
- Defensive DVOA: -9.7% (4th)
- Opposing Offense DVOA: -0.8% (17th)
I mentioned earlier that the Saints are coming off a game where they scored just six points and are on their third quarterback in five weeks. Dallas's defense has been hot and cold all season, but they certainly have big playmaking ability, as shown in the five defensive touchdowns on the season. If Alvin Kamara (questionable) ends up missing his third straight game tonight, I think Dallas's defense becomes a priority value play in your lineups. However, I rate them as a solid play regardless of Kamara's status.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard
Greg Zuerlein ($4,200 DK, $9,000 FD)
If I've said it once, I've said it a million times. Kickers have been optimal in recent weeks. I'll continue to use kickers in these showdown slates as a value option with Greg the Leg tonight. He's hit 19 of 24 field goals this year as well as 22 of 25 extra points on the season. Assuming the Saints can shut the door a few times on their side of the 50-yard line, we could see Zuerlein kick a couple of 40+ yarders, and he has a solid extra point floor as I feel that Dallas should be able to put points up on the board tonight.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Dak Prescott, Cowboys D/ST
Other Value Plays: Mark Ingram (if Kamara sits), Deonte Harris
Overall Slate Note
First and foremost, I want all pieces of Dallas's passing offense, including Tony Pollard. Zeke is banged up, and although he practiced in full on Tuesday and should be able to play, Pollard has been a huge key in the passing game. I'll be light on the Saints' side of the ball, especially if Kamara ends up sitting. Outside of that, I feel like this slate is rather straightforward, stack Dallas's passing attack with value guys from the Saints as your "run-back". Good luck!
Have a good Thursday everyone, see you soon!
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