Tight Ends Fantasy Football Outlooks and Trends For Week 9

October 31, 2024

Rob's tight end fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 9 of the 2024 season. Who should I start at tight end for fantasy football in Week 9 lineups?

The tight-end position has been as disappointing as ever. Things don't ever really change. The position continues to leave fantasy managers wanting more. The problem is, it likely isn't going to happen this season.

In this article, we'll examine four tight ends whose values have risen or fallen in the past few weeks. Through this in-depth exercise, we'll determine what to do with these four particular tight ends and how we should value them for the rest of the season.

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Does This Mark the End for Mark Andrews?

The Baltimore Ravens traded for Diontae Johnson this week, which will surely shake up Baltimore’s offense, but what does it mean for Andrews?

To put it bluntly, fantasy managers should be very concerned. Andrews has had a resurgent past four weeks, which has seen his half-PPR PPG average increase to 12.9. It had been at 2.4 PPG the first four weeks of the season. A lot of that production, 46.3%, has come from four touchdowns.

His route participation rate in Weeks 5-7 was similar to that in Weeks 1-4, indicating that increased production is likely more a hot stretch than things to come. It should be noted that his route participation finally crossed the 70% threshold in Week 8 for the first time this season.

Still, his snap share and route participation rate are far below what fantasy managers have come to expect from Andrews, and that was before the team traded for Johnson. This season, Baltimore has been in 11 personnel just 28.1% of the time, the lowest in the NFL.

This trade could increase its 11 personnel utilization, resulting in even lighter boxes for Derrick Henry. For Andrews, however, this could mean fewer snaps. Andrews has been in the slot for 57.1% of his snaps. When the Ravens do go 11 personnel, they often use Andrews as their big slot receiver and Isaiah Likely as their in-line tight end. With Johnson on board, the team could utilize Zay Flowers, a quick-twitchy athlete, in the slot instead of Andrews.

Ignoring that there’s a good chance that his routes and snaps go down further from this trade, we haven’t touched on the increased target competition, which is a big deal. Baltimore is 31st in pass attempts, averaging 29 passes per game.

Flowers is averaging 7.63 targets per game. Johnson is averaging 8.29. From 2020-24, Johnson has averaged 8.89 targets per game. Based on this, it shouldn’t be shocking to see Flowers and Johnson command 50% of the target share moving forward.

This offense could look very similar to Philadelphia's, with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith dominating the target share. That greatly hinders Dallas Goedert, who is still in his prime. Andrews is not anymore. Andrews now drops to No. 3 on Lamar Jackson’s target hierarchy, and on a team that only passes the ball 29 times, that’s a major red flag. Not only that but how sure are we that he’ll always be the No. 3?

Right now, Rashod Bateman and Isaiah Likely have a higher target per-game average than Andrews. While Andrews has come on in recent weeks, even if he’s solidified his place ahead of those two guys, he still shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than a mid-TE2.

This trade could spell disaster for Andrews’ fantasy value for the rest of the season. He’s lived off touchdowns the past four weeks, but with this trade shrinking his potential volume, he becomes even more touchdown-dependent. If you can sell him, you should sell him. Now.

Is Cade Otton a League Winner?

I’m not sure how good Otton is. He’s certainly good enough to take advantage of an incredible situation, that’s for sure. Jake Ferguson was in a similar spot last year. Austin Hooper did that in Atlanta. I’d advise caution on putting Otton up with the elite tight ends, but his situation is as elite as they come.

Ferguson is an excellent comparison to Otton. Both tight ends lacked target competition from any receivers. While Ferguson has CeeDee Lamb, Otton has no true receiver competition, although Mike Evans will eventually return. Both offenses have been extremely pass-heavy, not only in the raw numbers of pass attempts but also in pass rate over expected and neutral-situation pass rates. Both teams lean on their passing offense in a big way.

They also have quarterbacks who are balling out. That isn’t true for Ferguson this year, but it was the past two seasons when he was a fantasy darling. Baker Mayfield is playing out of his mind this year. With Chris Godwin done for the year and Evans on the mend until Week 12, including their Week 11 bye, Otton should stay very involved in the passing game for the rest of the season.

In Week 7, Godwin played 85% of the snaps before getting hurt late. Evans played just 28%. Tampa Bay was trailing Baltimore early, forcing the Buccaneers to pass. Due to this, Mayfield finished with 45 pass attempts. Otton did his part.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers first-read target rates in the first game without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans:

30% - Cade Otton
21% - Jalen McMillan
12% - Rachaad White
9% - Rakim Jarrett
9% - Ryan Miller
6% - Sterling Shepard
6% - Trey Palmer
6% - Bucky Irving

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 28, 2024

He had 10 targets, eight receptions, and 100 yards, finishing with 14.0 half-PPR points and a 22.2% target share. Evans and Godwin combined for 12 targets, eight receptions, 90 yards, and one touchdown. The following week, the first game without either standout receiver, Tampa Bay still passed the ball at an incredibly high rate. Mayfield finished with 50 pass attempts for Tampa Bay, again playing catch-up to the Atlanta Falcons.

Otton had 10 targets, nine receptions, 81 yards, and two touchdowns en route to 24.6 half-PPR points and a 20.0% target share. The target shares of 20.0% and above are outstanding, but fantasy managers shouldn’t expect Mayfield to continue throwing the ball 45 and 51 times per game.

Before these two games, Tampa Bay averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game. It averaged 47.5 attempts in Weeks 7-8. Assuming that levels out in the coming weeks, Otton’s target volume will also decrease.

Due to his environment, Otton has moved onto the cusp of the top-12 tight-end rankings for the rest of the season. I could reasonably see him ranked between TE11 through TE14. Given that and his production over the past two weeks, he might be a great sell-high candidate.

If you can trade Otton for someone like Dalton Kincaid and get an upgrade somewhere else in your starting lineup, I would do that. Otton will be a solid pickup, but he isn’t a league winner. Tight ends rarely are.

Is the Real League Winner Evan Engram?

Christian Kirk breaking his collarbone and being done for the year could have major implications for Engram. Over the past two seasons, Engram has played 16 games with Kirk and five without. The splits, courtesy of RotoViz, can be seen below.

Five games are a small sample, but the results are mind-blowing. Engram saw a 73.3% increase in his half-PPR PPG average. He also experienced a 44.6% increase in targets, a 41.1% increase in receptions, a 45.7% increase in yards, and a 400% increase in touchdowns per game.

Engram's 14.84 half-PPR PPG average without Kirk would make him TE2 for the season. That number would be 4.0 more PPG (37% more) than TE3 and 7.1 more PPG (92%) than TE12.

Since returning from his hamstring injury in Week 6, Engram has racked up 20 targets. He’s averaged 6.7 targets per game, putting him on pace for 113 targets. That was with Kirk on the field. His upside is even higher now.

Engram can potentially be a league winner for the rest of the season, especially with how putrid the tight-end position has been.

Are We Supposed to Keep Trusting Jake Ferguson?

Ferguson is currently tied for fourth in targets per game this season among tight ends, averaging 7.0 per game. He’s fifth in receptions per game with 5.17, but he’s just 10th in yards per game with 43.8. He’s currently just 16th with a 7.0 half-PPR PPG average.

Last year, he had 23 red-zone targets. This year, through six games, he has just three. That’s a decrease of 1.35 red-zone targets per game last year to 0.50 this year, a decrease of 170%. Fantasy managers may remember a similar trend last year.

In Weeks 1-6 last year, before the team’s Week 7 bye, Ferguson was averaging just 5.9 half-PPR PPG. Following the bye, Ferguson averaged 9.6 half-PPR PPG from Weeks 8-17, ranking as the TE7. Fantasy managers will hope a similar trend happens this season, and there’s reason to be optimistic.

The volume for Jake Ferguson has been strong, but he's stuck in a low aDOT role.

Of 35 TEs with at least 20 targets, Ferguson ranks:

* 8th in receptions (31)
* 18th in rec yds (263)
* 25th in aDOT (5.2 yds)
* 22nd in yds/route run (1.74)
* 30th in yds/target (6.1)

— Mark Dankenbring (@MarkDank) October 29, 2024

Some of these numbers aren't all that different from this year. His average depth of target (aDOT) was 5.0 this year, and his yards per target average was 7.5. Ferguson had a much better second half of the season, and the hope is that this will happen again. No guarantee that will happen, but as of right now, fantasy managers need to continue starting Ferguson.

His volume and opportunities are elite. The Dallas offense has virtually no run game, and its defense has been suspect. This will continue to keep the Dallas offense extremely pass-happy. The lack of dependable options behind CeeDee Lamb will keep Ferguson busy. Hopefully, this will lead to some more fantasy points soon.

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