Target Regression Candidates - Tight Ends

August 25, 2018

Phil Clark examines five tight ends who could see their target share decline in 2018. These TE could be ADP busts in fantasy football leagues due to negative regression in targets and receptions.

You are confronted by multiple challenges when determining which tight ends to select for your rosters. The hefty investment that is necessary in order to secure one of the highly productive options guarantees that an enticing collection of running backs and wide receivers will elude you during a critical early round. But you are also at risk of squandering your chance to remain competitive at the position if you exercise too much patience, as the result of an excruciating positional run that significantly depletes your options.

However, you do not want to complicate this task by becoming overly reliant on 2017 numbers when determining which tight ends to pursue during the draft process. Instead, some of last season's productive tight ends will be contending with increased competition for targets. Others will be adapting to new roles after the transformation of coaching staffs has altered their team’s deployment of the tight end position.

Fortunately, you can avoid unwanted results during your drafts by becoming cognizant of which players are most likely to have their workloads negatively impacted by offseason changes. Here are five players who are strong candidates for target regression at the troublesome tight end position.

Regression Rears Its Ugly Head

Evan Engram, New York Giants

Engram evaded the traditional hurdles that usually impede the production of rookie tight ends while benefiting significantly from the second highest target total that was allotted at his position (115). Only 16 wide receivers were located with greater frequency, as Engram’s team-best totals also vaulted him to fifth at his position in yardage (722), sixth in receptions (64), and fifth in fantasy points.

However, he was running routes within an underwhelming offense that was relegated to just four games with Odell Beckham Jr. in the lineup, after Beckham performed on a meager 212/ 19.5% snaps due to high ankle issues. The Giants were also hampered by a 26h ranked rushing attack that manufactured just six touchdowns throughout all of 2017. Now, Saquon Barkley is primed to reinvigorate the Giants’ ground game, which will coincide with the return of Beckham.

But a dramatic improvement in the potency of New York's weaponry also provides a clear signal that Engram will be confronted with a reduction in his opportunities. Beckham will commandeer a target total that approaches his average from 2014-2016 (152), while Barkley will capture passes from the backfield in order to capitalize on his effectiveness as a dynamic receiving weapon. Sterling Shepard will also remain a factor in the new Pat Shurmur/Mike Shula offense after migraines conspired with neck, hamstring and ankle issues to sideline him for five games last year.

Shepard also tied Engram for the team lead in red zone targets (11). But this is another category in which Beckham will reclaim his status as the primary option after accruing 69 red zone targets from 2014-2016. Yet despite the foreseeable decline in opportunities, the overall dearth of dependable tight ends keeps Engram as a viable option at his current ADP (66).

Jimmy Graham, Green Bay Packers

Graham will turn 32 in November, and after playing through a collection of injuries (foot/shoulder/knee), he is no longer capable of delivering the mammoth reception and yardage numbers that he averaged from 2011-2014 (89 receptions/1,099 yards). However, last season’s touchdown total (10) nearly matched the 11.5 that he averaged during that span, while that output also paced the tight end position.

His presence as a proficient red zone weapon resulted in a league-best 26 targets inside the 20, and 16 inside the 10 - which propelled him to that desirable touchdown total. However, anyone who owned Graham in 2017 can recall their increasing dependence on his end zone prowess as the season progressed. Between Weeks 10-16, Graham scored six times, but only surpassed 34 yards once during that sequence, while managing just 11 catches during his last six games combined.

That resulted in a yardage total that trailed 16 other tight ends (520) and was his lowest since 2010. According to footballoutsiders.com, a whopping 27 other tight ends also delivered a better DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) than Graham’s -6.0%. This presents an even larger concern considering the number of receiving weapons that will be accessible to Aaron Rodgers, when compared to the Seattle offense that Graham functioned in last season.

Graham was second on the Seahawks in target share (17.2%), while also capturing a team-high 35.8% of the red zone targets. While Rodgers will continue the utilization of Graham as a red zone weapon, only one Packer tight end has surpassed five touchdowns since 2011, and the six-time Pro-Bowler will not locate Graham with the same frequency that Russell Wilson did in 2017. This inevitable regression should combine with an unfavorable level of touchdown dependency to supply you with justification for bypassing Graham at his fifth-round ADP (52).

Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts

With Andrew Luck unavailable to engineer the Indianapolis offense, the unit plunged to 31st overall in 2017. Yet Doyle manufactured career-best output that provided a passageway into legitimate TE1 consideration for the first time in his five-year career. He finished fifth among all tight ends with a career-best 108 targets, which lifted him to the second highest reception total behind Travis Kelce (80).  But with Erik Swoope unavailable throughout the season (knee), no other tight end performed on more than 28.5% of the snaps. This resulted in Doyle playing on the second highest percentage of snaps at his position (88%) without legitimate competition for targets.

Now, that dream scenario for Doyle and any potential owners has ended. Even though he should retain TE1 status for the Colts, Eric Ebron will be also be utilized with enough frequency to pilfer targets on a weekly basis. Fortunately, Doyle can still function as your low-end TE1 if Reich's tight end usage is comparable to his deployment of the position during his tenure as an offensive coordinator. His tight ends finished either second or third in team targets during his four seasons with the Chargers and Eagles, while Zach Ertz (108) and Antonio Gates (91.5) both averaged over 90 targets during that sequence.

Ertz was also able to accrue 152 receptions, 1,640 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2016/2017, while averaging 72% of the offensive snaps. Trey Burton and Brent Celek also combined for 67.6% of the snaps during that span, which would bode well for the possibility that Doyle and Ebron can both remain viable if Reich apportions similar target percentages to his new tandem. That would allow Doyle to deliver the aforementioned TE1 production, even though his target total is destined to decline regardless.

Eric Ebron, Indianapolis Colts

Expectations were high for Ebron early in his tenure with Detroit, due to his enticing combination of size, speed, and athleticism, along with the distinction of being the 10th overall pick in the 2014 draft. Unfortunately, optimism degenerated into disappointment during his four years with the Lions, as his propensity for drops (25) and his moderate production created a lengthy list of dissatisfied owners. But even though the mere mention of his name often results in critical responses from those who have entrusted him on their rosters, he is just 25-years old and has now been presented with a genuine chance to redirect the trajectory of his career.

That will only occur if he can capitalize on opportunities that will be allotted in Reich’s offense. Because Ebron’s arrival in Indy not only signals a decrease in Doyle’s target total, but the former Lion will also encounter a significant barrier that will inhibit him from being allotted the same number of chances that he received in 2017. Matthew Stafford launched 86 passes in his direction last season, which tied him for ninth among all tight ends. It is highly unlikely that Ebron will reach that total while functioning in his new offense.

However, Reich is expected to line up Ebron in multiple positions. This will place more pressure on opposing defenders who cannot match-up effectively with the combination of speed and size that the 6’4” Ebron can deliver. That should enable him to maintain relevancy despite the impending decline in targets. It will require him to maximize his opportunities with greater efficiency to offset being allotted fewer chances. But he will be both literally and schematically placed in a position to succeed.

Jared Cook, Oakland Raiders

Cook’s 2017 numbers only prompted minimal conversation within the fantasy community, and have hardly inspired owners to secure him during their drafts (ADP 208). However, he did finish at TE12, and captured a career-best 54 receptions. Cook also led Oakland in receiving yards (688), which placed him seventh at his position. That level of involvement did result in just two touchdowns, which matches his career average of 2.1. But his 86 targets not only tied him with Ebron for ninth among tight ends but also enabled him to lead the Raiders in that category.

However, that total was also the second-highest of his career, as he has averaged just 67.7 since his 2009 rookie season. The level of usage was also necessitated by a blend of unfavorable factors that combined to diminish the productivity of an offense that had ranked sixth just one year earlier. That included a deficient first-time coordinator (Todd Downing), whose predictable play calling and inability to adjust to in-game opportunities frequently disabled Oakland's attack. Michael Crabtree also contributed to the unit's malaise by taking himself out of games in critical situations. This combined with Amari Cooper's wildly inconsistent production to elevate Derek Carr’s dependency on Cook as a reliable option.

However, the well-chronicled reemergence of Jon Gruden has instituted a complete overhaul of the Raider offense. This will diversify the play calling, allow Carr to launch more deep throws, and modify the distribution of targets. Cooper will operate as the centerpiece in the restructured attack, which will elevate the consistency and volume of his opportunities. Jordy Nelson will also supply Carr with a steady presence that will serve as an additional deterrent toward Cook’s target total. The 6'5" Cook will still create matchup challenges, which will compel Gruden to keep him active as a component within the offense. That makes it likely that he will remain a TE2 option that should be drafted earlier than his current ADP, even though his target total will be reduced.

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