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Antonio Losada looks at ADP variation of tight ends to assess their situations for fantasy football. Which tight ends' average draft positions are on the rise and why?
Ah our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each fantasy GM has their strategies and values players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). With free agency, the draft well finalized, and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to look at how ADPs vary during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.
In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position every few days who are seeing significant fluctuation from where they were the last time we checked to where they are getting drafted now using data from FFPC drafts.
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Fantasy Football Tight Ends - ADP Risers
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
As much as Philadelphia has changed its roster this offseason, all of those changes have come (mostly) on the rushing side of the game. All top five WRs in PPR leagues that already belonged to the Eagles are still there entering next season and pending any further move throughout the summer with the exception of the fourth-most-productive wideout in Zach Pascal.
Even when Dallas Goedert had to battle Zach Ertz for half a season in 2021 before the veteran got traded, he still finished as the TE9 in PPR formats. He struggled a bit to stay on the field last season (12 games played). Even then, Goedert still found a way to a top-12 finish at the position with 55 catches for 702 yards and three touchdowns.
Although Dan Arnold got added to the fold this offseason, the most he would do is take on a TE2 role behind Goedert. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith would still be taking the larger dose of looks from Jalen Hurts.
The Eagles lost Miles Sanders this offseason but added D'Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny. With this, Goedert's target share could slightly decrease (Swift got 70 targets in Detroit last season compared to Sanders' 26 in Philly), but not too much to start getting worried about a huge drop in Goedert's production.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
I guess this rise in ADP doesn't need any superbly detailed breakdown. The Ravens went from hell to heaven in a matter of days spanning from a few weeks before the NFL draft (Lamar demanding a trade, Baltimore doing nothing in free agency...) to right after the marquee event of the football offseason (Lamar re-signing, Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers arriving...).
Of course, the addition of two good-to-great receivers in OBJ (if he still has some mojo inside of him) and Flowers (if he fulfills the expectations) should take at least something from the target diet Andrews has enjoyed in prior seasons. However, at the end of the day, the Ravens' TE is a bonafide superstar and still the top offensive player in the skill position group of Baltimore.
Andrews has finished inside the top six at the position in three consecutive seasons. Last year, he clinched his first-ever TE1 finish with 301.1 PPR points through 17 games by way of catching an unbelievable 107 passes for 1,361 yards and nine touchdowns.
Even if OBJ and Flowers eat from Andrews' cake, the tight end will still get big-time chances and rack up stats on a weekly basis. In fact, having more capable and skilled players across the field should actually take some eyes off Andrews and free him up a bit. The ADP should keep rising if Lamar is in Baltimore for the long run, so there is nothing really surprising here considering the upside.
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
Engram arrived on a moribund Jaguars team last year after spending the prior five years playing for the Giants, and he had his best season since his 2017 rookie campaign.
Engram scored more PPR points than ever before through 17 games (176.9) and posted career marks in receptions (73), yards (766), and catch rate (74.5%) to go with his second-most touchdowns (four) scored in a single season.
The Jags will "add" Calvin Ridley to their offense next year after he returns from his gambling suspension. That's definitely going to bring some changes to Jacksonville's offense, as he will have Trevor Lawrence looking his way more often than not.
Marvin Jones (WR3 in Jacksonville last season) is gone and so is TE Dan Arnold, with the latter leaving a huge hole at the tight end position that Jacksonville partially filled by drafting Brenton Strange. From that to saying Strange will take anything from Engram, there is an even bigger gap, though.
Engram is safe to produce next year under an improved Lawrence and with more weapons spread across the field that could help the TE in certain situations. Safe to say the ADP rise isn't surprising and probably will keep going up a bit more through the next few weeks and months.
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