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Over the next week, RotoBaller analysts will give you a sneak peak into our consensus Premium Tiered Rankings at each position with some in-depth analysis to help you prepare for your drafts. We already looked at catchers, first base and second base, and today we tackle third base. The rest of our tiered rankings can be found in our2015 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit & Cheat Sheet.
Tiered rankings are critical for fantasy baseball drafts. Faced with the decision of drafting player X or Y at third base, you need to have an idea of how those players stack up against each other. If they are in the same tier, you can wait on the more costly player, and draft the cheaper player instead. Knowing which tiers players are in will help avoid overpaying and also help spend your draft dollars or picks as wisely as possible.
Tiered Third Base Rankings Analysis
Third basemen are typically very valuable fantasy players, as most provide good value in one or more offensive categories. Half of them are boppers, half get on base quite a bit, and very few have any degree of speed. You can find some great value options in the middle rounds of any draft, so don’t panic if you miss the boat on a stud. Below I’ll provide a sneak peek into the fourth tier of RotoBaller’s Premium Tiered Rankings.
*Note: All round estimates are based on 10 or 12-team leagues.
Tier 3 - Solid Starters
These are the players you can wait on and still get decent value from. You’ll be able to pick them up far later in most drafts than the top-tier players, so don’t be afraid to wait a little bit.
Knee injuries damaged Manny Machado’s value in 2014, as he got a late start rehabbing one and injured the other in August. He could very well have the most upside of any third baseman heading into 2015, as he won’t hurt you in any category and is capable of excelling in four out of five. Reference Machado’s All-Star 2013 campaign instead of 2014, as he looks primed to return to form this season.
You’re rolling the dice by drafting Zimmerman at any point in the draft, as he has a fairly extensive injury history. However, he should be replacing Adam LaRoche at first base in 2015, which should lower his risk for injury and allow him to focus almost entirely on hitting. Talent has never been an issue for Zimmerman, as he’s a career .286 hitter and has five seasons of 20 or more home runs. I like him in the 10th-12th rounds, as he’s fully capable of top five third base numbers if he makes it through the full season.
Matt Carpenter and Josh Harrison are next to each other in the rankings for a reason. Both have similar skill sets, but I like Harrison better because of his superior power and speed numbers. Carpenter will probably have a better batting average and more runs scored, but Harrison is capable of a 20/20 season if he continues to thrive as he did last year. Carpenter also has the more recognizable name, and is likely to go in the 10th-12th rounds, while Harrison should come much cheaper in the 12th-14th rounds.
I’ve never been a huge fan of Bogaerts, but he’s moving up draft boards nonetheless. The dual eligibility is nice, as you should be able to plug him in at shortstop and third base, but I’m not sure he’s quite ready to break into the top 15 at either position. He’s a talented shortstop, but from a fantasy perspective I wouldn’t expect anything better than basic numbers. I wouldn’t look at him an earlier than the 16th round, and even then only as a backup.
Three-time All-Star Aramiz Ramirez is on his last go-round, as he announced he’ll be retiring after the 2015 season. The days of 30+ homers are behind him, but I think the veteran still has enough left in the tank to provide good fantasy value. Know that you’ll only get 140 games out of him, but also know that you can expect him to be right around his career batting average of .285. He’s still got enough pop for 15 homers, but don’t expect a whole lot of runs/RBIs in a middle-of-the-pack Brewers lineup. I’d advise waiting until round 17 or later.
Kris Bryant looks like a sure thing. He’s going as early as round 13 in some places, and he has the skill set to justify a pick that high. However, you should draft him with the expectation that you probably won’t get 500 at-bats out of him, as he will start the season in Triple-A Iowa. He has 40+ home run power though, and I don’t see the Cubs keeping him down any longer than May. I think he’ll provide plenty of fantasy value in 2015, particularly in the power categories, and as long as you’re willing to stash him, roll the dice.
Do you remember Chase Headley’s magical 2012, where he put up 31 homers and 115 RBIs? Apparently the Yankees do, after inking him to a multi-year deal in the offseason. Unfortunately, they don’t seem to remember EVERY other season he’s ever played in. Outside of 2012, he has never exceeded 13 homers or 64 RBIs. I don’t see any reason for him to be drafted in a 10 or 12-team draft, unless you’re beyond desperate.
Brett Lawrie’s smash-mouth style of play is fun to watch when he’s on the field. Unfortunately, he’s rarely on the field—he topped out at 125 games played in 2012. I don’t feel confident in this being the year he finally puts it all together, which is a shame since he has 20/20 potential. Don’t even look his way any earlier than round 18.
Pedro Alvarez is one of the bigger power threats in the game, as he hit 30 or more home runs in each of the two seasons he’s played 140 or more games. He’s a prototypical power hitter—plenty of bombs, limited speed, and an exorbitant amount of strikeouts. He’ll play first base in a platoon with Corey Hart in 2015, but that doesn’t mean he’s without value. If you’re looking for power, draft Alvarez with confidence once you get into the later rounds (round 18 or later). I wouldn't make him your starting third baseman, but you could much worse than him at the corner infield spot.
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