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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Thursday Night Football - Panthers vs Texans. His Week 3 TNF daily fantasy football advice and value plays.
Happy Thursday, Rotoballers! Week three is here already, as we're cruising through this season. Tonight we've got an interesting matchup as Carolina heads to Houston to take on the Deshaun Watson and Tyrod Taylor-less Texans. The Vegas line sits at Carolina -8, and after the game Carolina had against the Saints on Sunday, it seems this line is warranted. Regardless, it'll be something to keep an eye on as the day goes on. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. NOTE: I usually don't take into account 2021 DVOA stats until about week four, just to give things a bit of time to settle in. I may reference 2021 data here and there, but I won't be taking it as canon, and I would suggest you do the same.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Thursday Night Football slate on September 16th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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DFS Quarterbacks
The career renaissance of Sam Darnold could be in the fold in Carolina. Through two games, he's thrown for 584 yards and three scores, while completing 68.5% of his passes. Everyone knew that the talent was always there with Sam, but playing in New York, especially for Adam Gase, wasn't doing him any favors. Houston had a mediocre DVOA against the pass last season at 25.2%. They've allowed 256 yards per game through the air this year, along with four TDs and four picks.
This is mostly just a courtesy here. There's nothing that makes me like Mills in this matchup. It's a short week, he's making his first career start, and the Panthers currently lead the NFL in defensive DVOA against the pass at -48.8%. Mills went 8-18 (44.4%) on Sunday, with a touchdown and interception. I don't like this situation for him at all, and won't have many shares.
DFS Running Backs
Christian McCaffery
Not much to say here. The best fantasy-oriented running back in the league in a very strong matchup against Houston, who has the 31st ranked DVOA against the rush at 12.6%. There's no reason he shouldn't be in most if not all of your lineups.
Mark Ingram
It looks like Mark Ingram is taking the workload for Houston this season. They're going to need him tonight to help Mills set in. I won't have an exceptional amount of shares, given the fact that Carolina has the best defensive DVOA against the rush at -57.3%. You're going to need at least *a* Texan in your lineup, and while I don't love him, I don't hate Ingram tonight.
DFS Wide Receivers
The passing volume at the WR position has been mostly D.J. Moore, making him a solid stack option to pair with Darnold and CMC. The matchup against Houston isn't great, but Moore has played 85% of all snaps and received 27.4% of the targets, both the highest numbers for the Panthers.
Speaking of high volume, the Texans are acting like Brandin Cooks is the only WR on their team. Cooks has played in 84.2% of snaps and has received a massive target share of 35%. He's the only reliable receiver the Texans have right now, and despite the great pass defense of Carolina, they've actually struggled against "#1 WRs" with a DVOA of 42.7% against them.
DFS Tight Ends
A little sneaky low-owned play here. I won't have a ton of him and I'll have some Dan Arnold shares also. However, Houston has been poor defending the tight-end position this year, with a DVOA of 32.5% which ranks 25th. Thomas has played in 62.14% of snaps, which leads Carolina tight-ends. Despite him having fewer overall targets than Arnold, he does have an end-zone target. One reception, six yards, and a touchdown for Thomas who's ownership won't surpass 10%? I'll take it.
Other WRs: Robby Anderson
DFS Defense/Special Teams
Carolina D/ST
A 22-year-old rookie making his starting debut with a bunch of 30+-year-old weapons, against the best defensive side of the season so far this year. There's not much more that needs to be said.
Other D/ST: Joey Slye, Zane Gonzalez
Have a good Thursday everyone, see you soon!
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