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It’s Friday and it’s going to be a glorious day full of both NBA and NFL prep as we head into the final shopping weekend before Christmas! My shopping is mainly done, but there are still gifts to be wrapped, toys to be assembled, and plenty of holiday preparations to be made. Oh, and some NFL bets need to be placed as well, of course!
Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything! This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for Week 15 of the 2022 NFL season. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily.
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Thunder Dan's Best Bets: 2022 NFL Season
- Last Week: 1-2
- Season ATS: 22-21
- Season O/U: 9-19
- Season Overall: 31-40
NFL Betting Picks: Spreads/MoneyLine
I have five spread bets this week and a few others that I was super close to recommending as well, but couldn’t quite pull the trigger (like Minnesota -3.5, for example).
BAL +3 (-120 DK)
Despite winning a close game against the Steelers last week with their third-team QB in for the entire second half, the Ravens find themselves as 3-point dogs on the road in Cleveland. That means bettors are viewing them as an equal team to Cleveland given the 3-point advantage afforded to home teams.
I don’t see it that way at all. I know they don’t have Lamar Jackson, but Tyler Huntley is very respectable and the Ravens’ running game is elite with a huge mismatch against this Browns’ run defense. Baltimore has been pretty good on the road, too, going 5-2 ATS this year. We haven’t seen the Browns morph into a massively better team with Watson under center compared to Brissett and I think Baltimore is simply better overall, regardless of who is quarterbacking them this week. Give me the Ravens and the points.
BUF -7 (-110)
This one is simple for me. The weather is a huge problem for Miami as they really haven’t run the ball well of late and are going to struggle to throw in a snowy game on Saturday in Buffalo. Tua looked terrible last week and Buffalo should be much more ready for him this time around. The Bills are getting healthier on defense and are a bad matchup for the Dolphins.
Josh Allen hasn’t been himself since the elbow injury, I know, but the Bills’ offense should still find ways to move the football with their run game and Allen’s mobility/playmaking. I like the Bills to cover this one touchdown spread and make a statement here that they’re still the team to beat in the AFC, while the Dolphins are still a tier below them in terms of contenders.
DAL -4 (-110)
I think this spread is way too close based on the full season’s worth of data that we have on these two teams. Their recent performances might be weighted too heavily by bettors and I want to bet against those trends.
The Cowboys let down last week against the Texans, needing to battle back late to win a game in which they were heavily favored, while the Jags dominated the second half against Tennessee and won big. Dallas is still a much better team here on both sides of the ball in my opinion and they match up well against Jacksonville.
The Jags have had a hard time running the ball this year and are relying on Trevor Lawrence and the passing game too much. He will be under pressure in this one with Dallas having an elite pass rush. Lawrence is still very turnover prone and I look for the Cowboys to force him to make some mistakes. Meanwhile, Dallas can run the ball effectively with Zeke and Pollard as they need to and have a strong pass offense that matches up well against a very mediocre Jags passing defense. I have the Cowboys winning by a full TD here, so I’m okay with laying four points (though we obviously wish it was 3).
HOU +14 (-110)
Betting on the Texans this week, really Dan??? Yes, I am, and here’s why. This spread is simply too big and large favorites simply haven’t been able to cover all that often this season and the Chiefs have the worst average margin of victory of the top-tier teams this year at only +6.6 points. KC’s record ATS this season is just 4-8 as they have performed badly as big favorites quite often.
KC has won by 14 or more points just twice this year, and Houston has lost by 14 or more points just two times, too. Houston is scrappy and we saw them take Dallas all the way to the end of the game last week before falling. I don’t think they win, but I think they cover, and even if it’s a backdoor cover we will take it. KC’s defense just hasn’t stopped people often this year and I can see this Houston team scoring some points.
NYJ -2 (-110 DK)
Here’s my toughest call of the week. I love what the Lions are doing and you know we were all over them last week in that big home win against the Vikings. But I am also a huge fan of what the Jets are doing, too, and I give them the advantage here at home based on how they match up and a few trends that line up as well.
New York is 3-3 ATS at home with a +6.6 point differential, while the Lions are 3-2 on the road but with a -2.9 point differential. We have seen Jared Goff play out of his mind at home, but struggle on the road and he’ll face a really good Jets defense in this one that can stop the run (9th in rush DVOA) and quite good against the pass, too (6th in pass DVOA).
Meanwhile, the Lions’ defense can still be exploited through the air and we saw Minnesota throw for over 400 yards against them last week. I think it’s a big week for Mike White and his receivers and the Jets pull out a hard-fought, close win here. They’ve dropped two close games in a row against really good teams in Minnesota and Buffalo, this week they get it done and move one step closer to being a wild card team in the AFC.
NFL Betting Picks: Totals
I am skipping totals this week. I scoured these games looking for an edge on one and though my model had a few spots that differed greatly from where Vegas is currently, there weren’t enough trends to back up the plays and there are some weather and injury situations that complicate things in a few of these games, too.
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You know the rules here, more teams = more risk. Never hesitate to leave a team out of a parlay that you don’t feel good about.
5-TEAM ML FAVORITES PARLAY: BUF/DAL/PHI/KC/MIN (+309 DK)
Don’t screw us, Vikings! If you drop Minny off this parlay it brings the odds down quite a bit to only +170, but I think they are the only team of this group that is really in jeopardy of losing.
4-TEAM 7-POINT TEASER: BAL/HOU/TEN/NE (+200 DK)
That takes the spreads to BAL +10, HOU +21, NE +8.5, and TEN +10
I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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