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Thunder Dan's MLB Betting Picks for August 5: Pitcher Props, Totals, Money Line Bets

Dan Palyo's top MLB betting picks and best bets for August 5th, 2022. His favorite MLB bettings picks for player props, money lines, run lines, and game totals.

Baseball bettors, rejoice! We have a full slate of games today on which to wager! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!

Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Friday, August 5th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections

I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.

 

(click to enlarge)

 

MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets

Framber Valdez o4.5K vs. CLE (-150 DK)

Corey Kluber o4.5K vs. DET (-160 DK)

I am lumping these two together for the sake of time. Valdez has been cruising to 5+ now in 10 of his last 11 starts. The Guardians (I almost typed Indians) strike out more against lefties than righties and Valdez pitches deep enough into games (6-7 innings most nights) to get him over the hump.

Kluber is an average K pitcher by all measures but is coming off a solid 10k performance against his old Cleveland club that rarely strikes out. He’s gone six innings now in four of his last five and had 8 strikeouts against the Tigers last time. We should get 5 whiffs here tonight assuming he pitches his usual six innings.

The juice on both of these is high and could keep moving. If you have the odds, just parlay them together.

Eric Lauer o5.5K vs. CIN (+105 DK)

I always want to take a stab at some plus odds, and Lauer is in a great spot as the Reds are whiffing 29% of the time against LHP over their L14. Pham is gone and so is Naquin. This lineup is looking very shaky and while Lauer hasn’t been in great form, we know he has decent strikeout stuff.

Patrick Sandoval o5.5 vs. SEA (+105 DK)

Sandoval was one of “my guys” this season. He hasn’t busted out like I thought he could and is still hampered by a high walk rate, but the guy can still strike out hitters at an above-average rate. He got Seattle six times in the first meeting and gets them without J-Rod here. The danger here is just if he gets run early or walks too many guys and runs up his pitch count, but I still like him to get his.

The “Just Missed List” - close but no cigar!

Robbie Ray, Dylan Cease, and Josiah Gray are all strikeout pitchers in solid spots, but Ray and Cease are both at 7.5 and Gray at 6.5, just a little too rich for my blood and too much juice on Cease at such a high number.

 

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MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Prop Bets

Pete Alonso o1.5 (-115 DK)

Pete is just mashing the ball right now, with three homers in his last four games. He matches up well here with Ian Anderson, a reverse-splits RHP.

Kyle Schwarber o1.5 (+110 DK)

Schwarber has two dongs off Josiah Gray and when you check his profile, you can see why. He mashes the four-seamer and curveball, which are the two main pitches that Gray throws to lefties. I was surprised he was at plus odds here, with how well-known Gray is for giving up barrels and bombs.

Mookie Betts o1.5 (-110 FD)

Mookie had a great series in San Fran, with two HR and two doubles. His numbers against lefties continue to climb and he has a solid BvP history against Sean Manaea tonight, a guy who relies on his sinker entirely too much.

 

MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals

NYY/STL OVER 8.5 runs (-105 DK)

Dakota Hudson is simply not a very good starting pitcher. He doesn’t miss bats at all and relies entirely on ground balls. He used to be really tough on righties, but that hasn’t been the case this season. The Yanks should be able to score on him here I think. On the other side, Cortes has been solid for New York, but the Cards are really good against LHP. I think both offenses are too good here for this total to be so low, I have it projected around 10 runs.

TB/DET under 8.5 runs (-110 DK)

We are going back to this game! The total came up a half point, despite the fact that it only ended at 8 last night. Some of those runs last night were unearned, too, with Tampa making two errors in one inning. Kluber has been good and the Garcia kid was surprisingly effective in his first start. The trends continue to tell us to go under with these two teams.

 

MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends

I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.

(click to enlarge)

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Corey Heim

Does Not Qualify for Cup Race at Chicago Street Course
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

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Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
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Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
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Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
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Impresses at Minicamp
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Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

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Jabari Walker

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Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
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NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

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Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
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Promoted to the Major Leagues
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Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
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Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
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Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

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Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

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Jacob Monk

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Avonte Maddox

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Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
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Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
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Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
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COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
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Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
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Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
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Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
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