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Thunder Dan's MLB Betting Picks for August 12: Pitcher Props, Totals, Money Line Bets

Dan Palyo's top MLB betting picks and best bets for August 12th, 2022. His favorite MLB bettings picks for player props, money lines, run lines, and game totals.

A short slate of games won't stop us from wagering on them! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!

Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, August 12th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections

I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.

(click to enlarge)

 

MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets

Carlos Rodon o7.5K vs. PIT (-160 DK)

Let’s start with the big dog. Rodon eats bad teams for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. The Pirates are…a very bad team, especially against LHP. I have a massive 37% projected K rate here, pushing Rodon’s projection close to 9. There’s a ton of juice here, but I’m okay with it and probably betting at 8.5, too, once it moves.

Tyler Mahle o6.5K vs. LAA (+110 DK)

Mahle has been a fairly erratic pitcher in his career, but has had a solid season and is now pitching for a playoff contender in Minnesota. The Angels are pretty much in the auto-target territory by this part of the season, and even when I dropped their K rate a few points based on recent numbers, I still have Mahle for nearly 7. I love the odds we are getting here, and I think Mahle is a great ladder play up to 9-10.

Pablo Lopez 5.5K vs. ATL (-140)

Somehow Pablo has managed to dodge the Braves all year up to this point. While the Atlanta offense is dangerous, they are also very K-prone and Pablo has great stuff. You can see we are green across the board on the chart and he’s projected a full K above this number, which makes me okay with eating the juice a bit.

Luis Garcia to record a win (-125 DK)

I wanted some exposure to Houston but like yesterday I am not betting them -300 or worse on the ML or -150 on the RL. If they take care of business as they should, then Garcia should be in line for a win. His K prop is 6.5 and I’d rather get my exposure to him through the win than the strikeouts or outs today.

 

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MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Props

We are back with some total base props today!

Jose Abreu o1.5 TB (+125)

Abreu gets to see a familiar pitcher today as Daniel Norris makes his debut as a starter for the Tigers this season. Abreu has 22 at-bats against the veteran lefty Norris and a .455 average with two HR and a 1.440 OPS. Norris probably will only pitch 3-5 innings tops, but all it takes is one swing of the bat to cash this one at nice odds. Norris’s 14% barrel rate is the worst on the slate.

Juan Soto o1.5 TB (+110)

Speaking of barrel rates, Cory Abbott’s is 13% and he’s going to have his work cut out for him today with this new look Pads lineup. Soto has two straight multi-hit games and I’m a little blown away he’s a plus odds here considering how bad Washington’s bullpen has been and how largely favored the Pads are in this spot.

Kyle Tucker o1.5 TB (+100)

Yordan Alvarez gets all the attention in Houston, but we are getting Tucker at much better odds here. I like most of the Houston guys today against Oller, who has been pretty objectively bad this year. Tucker has the raw power to get us a HR, but also awesome speed to stretch a single into a double. He’s been hitting the ball well and can get there with HR, double, or just two singles.

 

MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals

SFG -1.5 (-115 DK)

SDP -1.5 (-145 DK)

A couple of big mismatches here with the Giants pitching Rodon against the Bucs and the Padres going with Mike Clevinger against a terrible Nats team. The Padres offense is heating up and they should light up Abbott and that Nats’ pen. The Giants' offense isn’t nearly as powerful, but I trust them to scrape together enough runs to cover here and Rodon could totally shut out this Pittsburgh offense.

L.A. Dodgers over 5.5 runs (-110 DK)

The Dodgers bats have been impressive over the last month as they are averaging 6.4 runs scored. Max Muncy is finally alive, Joey Gallo might be coming out of his season-long coma, and the rest of the gang just keeps hitting. They face a lefty tonight in Lynch who isn’t terrible by any means, but this lineup has been solid against LHP even with some light-hitting guys at the bottom of the order (Alberto, Thompson, Barnes). The Royals bullpen backing Lynch is bad, which is what pushes me over the top here. The Dodgers roll tonight and score 6+.

 

MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends

I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.

(click to enlarge)

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!



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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Braden Schneider

Limited in Training Camp
Lars Eller

Recovering From Abdominal Procedure
Nick Jensen

in Danger of Missing Start of Season
Brandon Montour

to Miss Two Weeks After Ankle Surgery
Gabriel Landeskog

a "Full Go" for the Season
Samuel Girard

Avalanche Hope to Have Samuel Girard Available for Start of Season
Mackenzie Blackwood

Out Week-to-Week
Alex Tuch

Day-to-Day With Undisclosed Injury
Jordan Greenway

to Sit Out Training Camp
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Considered Day-to-Day
Simon Edvinsson

to Miss a Couple of Weeks
Mikael Backlund

Signs Two-Year Extension
Connor Ingram

to Be Waived by Mammoth
Zach Hyman

Misses Start of Training Camp
Nick Paul

Out Until November
Kris Letang

Cleared for Training Camp
David Pastrnak

Out for Start of Training Camp
Matthew Tkachuk

Expected to Be Out Until December
NBA

Trevelin Queen Joins Chinese Team
Damian Lillard

Not Rushing His Return
Brooklyn Nets

Keon Johnson Waived by Nets
Justin Verlander

Plans to Pitch in 2026
Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column

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