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A short slate of games won't stop us from wagering on them! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, August 12th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
Carlos Rodon o7.5K vs. PIT (-160 DK)
Let’s start with the big dog. Rodon eats bad teams for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. The Pirates are…a very bad team, especially against LHP. I have a massive 37% projected K rate here, pushing Rodon’s projection close to 9. There’s a ton of juice here, but I’m okay with it and probably betting at 8.5, too, once it moves.
Tyler Mahle o6.5K vs. LAA (+110 DK)
Mahle has been a fairly erratic pitcher in his career, but has had a solid season and is now pitching for a playoff contender in Minnesota. The Angels are pretty much in the auto-target territory by this part of the season, and even when I dropped their K rate a few points based on recent numbers, I still have Mahle for nearly 7. I love the odds we are getting here, and I think Mahle is a great ladder play up to 9-10.
Pablo Lopez 5.5K vs. ATL (-140)
Somehow Pablo has managed to dodge the Braves all year up to this point. While the Atlanta offense is dangerous, they are also very K-prone and Pablo has great stuff. You can see we are green across the board on the chart and he’s projected a full K above this number, which makes me okay with eating the juice a bit.
Luis Garcia to record a win (-125 DK)
I wanted some exposure to Houston but like yesterday I am not betting them -300 or worse on the ML or -150 on the RL. If they take care of business as they should, then Garcia should be in line for a win. His K prop is 6.5 and I’d rather get my exposure to him through the win than the strikeouts or outs today.
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MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Props
We are back with some total base props today!
Jose Abreu o1.5 TB (+125)
Abreu gets to see a familiar pitcher today as Daniel Norris makes his debut as a starter for the Tigers this season. Abreu has 22 at-bats against the veteran lefty Norris and a .455 average with two HR and a 1.440 OPS. Norris probably will only pitch 3-5 innings tops, but all it takes is one swing of the bat to cash this one at nice odds. Norris’s 14% barrel rate is the worst on the slate.
Juan Soto o1.5 TB (+110)
Speaking of barrel rates, Cory Abbott’s is 13% and he’s going to have his work cut out for him today with this new look Pads lineup. Soto has two straight multi-hit games and I’m a little blown away he’s a plus odds here considering how bad Washington’s bullpen has been and how largely favored the Pads are in this spot.
Kyle Tucker o1.5 TB (+100)
Yordan Alvarez gets all the attention in Houston, but we are getting Tucker at much better odds here. I like most of the Houston guys today against Oller, who has been pretty objectively bad this year. Tucker has the raw power to get us a HR, but also awesome speed to stretch a single into a double. He’s been hitting the ball well and can get there with HR, double, or just two singles.
MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
SFG -1.5 (-115 DK)
SDP -1.5 (-145 DK)
A couple of big mismatches here with the Giants pitching Rodon against the Bucs and the Padres going with Mike Clevinger against a terrible Nats team. The Padres offense is heating up and they should light up Abbott and that Nats’ pen. The Giants' offense isn’t nearly as powerful, but I trust them to scrape together enough runs to cover here and Rodon could totally shut out this Pittsburgh offense.
L.A. Dodgers over 5.5 runs (-110 DK)
The Dodgers bats have been impressive over the last month as they are averaging 6.4 runs scored. Max Muncy is finally alive, Joey Gallo might be coming out of his season-long coma, and the rest of the gang just keeps hitting. They face a lefty tonight in Lynch who isn’t terrible by any means, but this lineup has been solid against LHP even with some light-hitting guys at the bottom of the order (Alberto, Thompson, Barnes). The Royals bullpen backing Lynch is bad, which is what pushes me over the top here. The Dodgers roll tonight and score 6+.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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