X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Thunder Dan's MLB Betting Picks for August 12: Pitcher Props, Totals, Money Line Bets

Dan Palyo's top MLB betting picks and best bets for August 12th, 2022. His favorite MLB bettings picks for player props, money lines, run lines, and game totals.

A short slate of games won't stop us from wagering on them! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!

Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, August 12th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code WIN. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections

I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.

(click to enlarge)

 

MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets

Carlos Rodon o7.5K vs. PIT (-160 DK)

Let’s start with the big dog. Rodon eats bad teams for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. The Pirates are…a very bad team, especially against LHP. I have a massive 37% projected K rate here, pushing Rodon’s projection close to 9. There’s a ton of juice here, but I’m okay with it and probably betting at 8.5, too, once it moves.

Tyler Mahle o6.5K vs. LAA (+110 DK)

Mahle has been a fairly erratic pitcher in his career, but has had a solid season and is now pitching for a playoff contender in Minnesota. The Angels are pretty much in the auto-target territory by this part of the season, and even when I dropped their K rate a few points based on recent numbers, I still have Mahle for nearly 7. I love the odds we are getting here, and I think Mahle is a great ladder play up to 9-10.

Pablo Lopez 5.5K vs. ATL (-140)

Somehow Pablo has managed to dodge the Braves all year up to this point. While the Atlanta offense is dangerous, they are also very K-prone and Pablo has great stuff. You can see we are green across the board on the chart and he’s projected a full K above this number, which makes me okay with eating the juice a bit.

Luis Garcia to record a win (-125 DK)

I wanted some exposure to Houston but like yesterday I am not betting them -300 or worse on the ML or -150 on the RL. If they take care of business as they should, then Garcia should be in line for a win. His K prop is 6.5 and I’d rather get my exposure to him through the win than the strikeouts or outs today.

 

Sports Betting Promo Offers

Featured Promo: Get any Betting Premium Pass for 30% off using code WIN. Win more with exclusive betting picks from proven winners across 9 sports! Find optimal bets with our Betting Picks Tool and Bet Weighting Tool and follow along in our VIP chat rooms! Go Premium, Win More!

 

MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Props

We are back with some total base props today!

Jose Abreu o1.5 TB (+125)

Abreu gets to see a familiar pitcher today as Daniel Norris makes his debut as a starter for the Tigers this season. Abreu has 22 at-bats against the veteran lefty Norris and a .455 average with two HR and a 1.440 OPS. Norris probably will only pitch 3-5 innings tops, but all it takes is one swing of the bat to cash this one at nice odds. Norris’s 14% barrel rate is the worst on the slate.

Juan Soto o1.5 TB (+110)

Speaking of barrel rates, Cory Abbott’s is 13% and he’s going to have his work cut out for him today with this new look Pads lineup. Soto has two straight multi-hit games and I’m a little blown away he’s a plus odds here considering how bad Washington’s bullpen has been and how largely favored the Pads are in this spot.

Kyle Tucker o1.5 TB (+100)

Yordan Alvarez gets all the attention in Houston, but we are getting Tucker at much better odds here. I like most of the Houston guys today against Oller, who has been pretty objectively bad this year. Tucker has the raw power to get us a HR, but also awesome speed to stretch a single into a double. He’s been hitting the ball well and can get there with HR, double, or just two singles.

 

MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals

SFG -1.5 (-115 DK)

SDP -1.5 (-145 DK)

A couple of big mismatches here with the Giants pitching Rodon against the Bucs and the Padres going with Mike Clevinger against a terrible Nats team. The Padres offense is heating up and they should light up Abbott and that Nats’ pen. The Giants' offense isn’t nearly as powerful, but I trust them to scrape together enough runs to cover here and Rodon could totally shut out this Pittsburgh offense.

L.A. Dodgers over 5.5 runs (-110 DK)

The Dodgers bats have been impressive over the last month as they are averaging 6.4 runs scored. Max Muncy is finally alive, Joey Gallo might be coming out of his season-long coma, and the rest of the gang just keeps hitting. They face a lefty tonight in Lynch who isn’t terrible by any means, but this lineup has been solid against LHP even with some light-hitting guys at the bottom of the order (Alberto, Thompson, Barnes). The Royals bullpen backing Lynch is bad, which is what pushes me over the top here. The Dodgers roll tonight and score 6+.

 

MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends

I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.

(click to enlarge)

I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NBA

Mason Jones Takes His Talents to Australia
NBA

Talen Horton-Tucker Joins Reigning EuroLeague Champions
NBA

Malcolm Brogdon on Knicks' Radar
Andrew Wiggins

Attracting Interest From Lakers
NBA

Heat Interested in Reunion With Precious Achiuwa
Tyler Glasnow

Fans 11 in Seven No-Hit Innings Monday
Slade Cecconi

Takes No-Hitter Into Eighth Inning Monday
Max Muncy

Batting Cleanup in Return to Dodgers
New York Knicks

Ben Simmons Reportedly Declined Knicks' Contract Offer
Younghoe Koo

Falcons Auditioning Kickers, Could Replace Younghoe Koo
Denver Broncos

Sean Payton Says Broncos Need to be Better With Run-Pass Balance
Tank Bigsby

Eagles Acquiring Tank Bigsby From Jaguars on Monday
George Kittle

Likely Out 3-5 Weeks, Could Land on Injured Reserve
Chase Burns

to be Activated on Friday
Brock Purdy

Dealing With Multiple Injuries, Could Miss Week 2
Tyler Glasnow

Cleared to Start on Monday
Logan O'Hoppe

Placed on Concussion Injured List
Christian Yelich

Returning on Monday
Elias Pettersson

Feeling "Good" Ahead of Season
NHL

Alex Formenton Rejoins Swiss Team
NHL

Grigori Denisenko Heads Back Home
CAR

Kevin Labanc Joins Hurricanes for Tryout
Ross Colton

Healthy for Start of Season
Daniel Palencia

Cubs Place Daniel Palencia on Injured List With Shoulder Strain
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Returning on Monday
Sean Murphy

Done for the Year With Hip Labral Tear
Alec Bohm

Lands on Injured List With Cyst in his Shoulder
Trea Turner

Going on Injured List, Phillies Hope to Have him Back for Playoffs
Brock Bowers

Considered Day-to-Day With Knee Injury
Jonathan Taylor

is "Good" After Taking a Hit to his Neck in Week 1
Caio Borralho

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Kyle Stowers

Suffers Setback on Rehab Assignment?
Nassourdine Imavov

Extends Win Streak
Mauricio Ruffy

Gets Submitted
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Taps Out Mauricio Ruffy
Michael King

Expected to Return on Tuesday
Russell Wilson

Remains the Giants Starter
Trea Turner

Undergoing MRI Exam on Monday
Paul Craig

Retires After UFC Paris Loss
Denny Hamlin

Earns his First Cup Victory at Gateway
Kyle Larson

Damage Ruins Kyle Larson's Chance At a Top Finish at Gateway
Christopher Bell

Scores his Third Top-10 Finish at Gateway
Joey Logano

Maintains his Perfect Top-Five Streak at Gateway
Ryan Blaney

Struggles and Recovers for a Top-Five Finish at Gateway
Modestas Bukauskas

Scores First-Round Knockout
Bolaji Oki

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Xavier Worthy

Week-to-Week with Dislocated Shoulder
Mason Jones

Scores Comeback Win
Rhys McKee

Suffers Third-Round TKO Loss
Axel Sola

Successful In His UFC Debut
Robert Ruchała

Robert Ruchala Unsuccessful In His UFC Debut
William Gomis

Bounces Back In The Win Column
Derrick Henry

Scores Twice but has Costly Fumble on Sunday
Lamar Jackson

Shines With Three Total Touchdowns in Loss to Bills
Keon Coleman

Leads the Team With 11 Targets on Sunday
Josh Allen

Totals Four Touchdowns in Win Over Ravens
Chase Elliott

Gets Lucky but Still Has Best Run at Gateway
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Wins Stage 2, but Was Let Down by Strategy
Tyler Reddick

Despite Bad Luck, Tyler Reddick Does What he Needed to Do
Chase Briscoe

Recovers from Incident with Daniel Suarez to Finish Second
William Byron

Late Caution Foils William Byron's Shot at Gateway Victory
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Dominates Targets in Seattle, Records 124 Receiving Yards in Week 1
Puka Nacua

Leads Rams in Targets, Catches, and Receiving Yards in Week 1
Logan O'Hoppe

Exits After Concussion Scare, Status Remains Unclear
Christian McCaffrey

Logs 31 Touches in Season Opener
Travis Etienne Jr.

Dominates Backfield Touches in Jacksonville, Posts Monster Day
Jayson Tatum

"Moving Around Way Better"
Russell Wilson

Giants Won't Commit to Russell Wilson as Week 2 Starter
Drake London

Day-to-Day with Shoulder Sprain
George Kittle

and Jauan Jennings to Undergo MRIs
Jake Moody

49ers to Evaluate Kicker Position After Jake Moody Struggles
Daniel Palencia

to Miss Time With Shoulder Injury
Byron Buxton

Exits Early With Knee Contusion
Trea Turner

Suffers Hamstring Strain
Ryan Blaney

Should Contend at Gateway
Denny Hamlin

Fastest in Qualifying, the Favorite to Win at Gateway
Christopher Bell

Looking for Redemption at Gateway
Joey Logano

Has Been Elite at Gateway
Austin Cindric

Should Be On Your Radar at Gateway
AJ Allmendinger

Could Be a Sleeper Again at Gateway
Tyler Reddick

Southern 500 Near-Miss Makes Tyler Reddick a Stronger Option for Gateway
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace a Likely Gateway Contender
Alex Bowman

a Long Shot to Advance in Playoffs
Austin Dillon

Richard Childress Racing Looks Slower at Gateway, Which Will Hurt Austin Dillon
Shane Van Gisbergen

Starts 18th in Gateway Debut
Bubba Chandler

to Make First Start on Sunday
Samuel Basallo

Exits Early with Hand Injury
Jeremy Swayman

Ready to Get Back on Track
Connor McDavid

Aiming for More Goals
NJ

Luke Glendening Signs Tryout Deal With Devils
Dylan Harper

Hoping to be Ready for the Opener Versus Dallas
EDM

Derek Ryan Retires From Hockey
Connor Zary

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Flames
Carey Price

Canadiens Trade Carey Price to Sharks
Rasmus Hojgaard

Finishes Tied For Second at Omega European Masters
Tyrrell Hatton

Finishes Tied for 32nd at LIV Indianapolis
Matt Fitzpatrick

Finishes Fifth at Omega European Masters
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied For Second in 2025 FedEx Cup Standings
Xander Schauffele

Finishes 42nd in 2025 FedEx Cup Standings
Caio Borralho

Set For A Title Eliminator Bout
Nassourdine Imavov

Looks To Earn A Title Shot
Mauricio Ruffy

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Set For UFC Paris Co-Main Event
Modestas Bukauskas

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Paul Craig

In Dire Need Of Victory
Mason Jones

Set for Main-Card Bout
Bolaji Oki

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Rhys McKee

Set To Open Up UFC Paris Main Card
Jon Rahm

Looks to Prove His Importance on European Ryder Cup Team
Tommy Fleetwood

Among Leaders of European Ryder Cup Team
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Close to Triple-Double Versus Serbia
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Fills Box Score Against Turkey
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Shakes Off Minor Injury
E.J. Liddell

Inks Two-Way Deal With Nets
NBA

Ben Simmons Reportedly Considering Retirement
P.J. Washington

Agrees to Four-Year, $90 Million Extension
Sepp Straka

Gets Captain's Pick to Join Team Europe
PGA

Victor Hovland to Make Third Ryder Cup Appearance for Team Europe
J.J. Spaun

Set to Represent Team USA for First Time at Bethpage
Russell Henley

Makes First Ryder Cup Appearance at Bethpage
Harris English

Named to Ryder Cup Team for Second Time
Justin Thomas

Making Fourth Ryder Cup Team Appearance at Bethpage
Ben Griffin

Making First Career Ryder Cup Appearance at Bethpage
Bryson DeChambeau

Set to be Part of Team USA at Bethpage

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP