Third Basemen Set to Bust in 2021

Elliott Baas identifies third basemen who could be busts in 2021 for fantasy baseball. These 3B may be overvalued in drafts and should be faded or avoided.

The hot corner is loaded with talent once again in 2021, and of the two classic infield power positions, third base is measurably deeper than its traditional slugger counterpart across the diamond.

With such depth, it’s even more important to nail your third base pick on draft day, otherwise you’ll be fitting an uphill battle trying to keep up with your league-mates all season.

This article will identify some third basemen to avoid this draft season, whether it be for their bloated price tag or questionable skills, or a combination of both.

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Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals

ADP: 35

Arenado’s time in Colorado came to an unceremonious end this offseason, as the Rockies dumped his $275 million dollar contract on St. Louis in exchange for an underwhelming package of spare parts, all while paying $50 million to the Cardinals for the privilege. Not only would it would be too easy to point out the change in hitting environment as a reason to avoid Arenado, it would be incorrect to identify the move from Colorado to St. Louis as the sole reason for concern.

Plenty of hitters have had success post-Coors, notable examples being D.J. LeMahieu, Matt Holliday, and Corey Dickerson. Plus, a Coors hangover isn’t just something experienced by frat boys on a Sunday morning. In this breakdown by MLB.com’s Mike Petriello, he identifies that Colorado hitters have had both the best home OPS and the worst road OPS in the league over the last five seasons. Instead of assuming Coors Field elevates the worst lineup in baseball, it’s more likely that adjusting to hitting at sea level is difficult when you spend most of your time hitting in that thin, rocky mountain air. It’s documented that breaking balls move less in thin air, meaning that Colorado hitters need to adjust to sharper curveballs and sliders on the road, something that can’t be easy in the already incredibly difficult task of hitting a baseball.

No, calling Arenado a bust solely for leaving Coors would be incorrect, but it’s hard to not feel a twinge of doubt after a poor 2020 and a new environment. Busch Stadium, despite also being named after beer, isn’t just not Coors Field. In fact, it’s a below average park for right-handed sluggers like Arenado. A lot of analysis following the Arenado trade has focused on hitters leaving Coors Field, which is very important to consider, but there’s an excellent comparable right under our noses that’s gone largely ignored, and that’s Paul Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt didn’t leave Coors, but he is a right-handed power bat that left a hitter-friendly environment for St. Louis. Goldy boasted a .933 OPS and .239 ISO at home during his tenure with the Diamondbacks, but those home numbers have dipped to  much more pedestrian .856 OPS and .201 ISO as a Cardinal. Not bad, but not the player he once was.

One might argue that Goldschmidt’s age and perhaps injury played a role in his decline, and while that may be true, Arenado isn’t immune from those same concerns. 2020 was Arenado's worst season since he was a rookie, as he put up a .738 OPS and 76 wRC+ in 201 PA. This wasn’t just bad luck either, as Arenado saw his average exit velocity drop to a mediocre 87.8 MPH, and his max exit velocity hit just 108.9 MPH, both the lowest of his career. An A/C joint injury in his left shoulder ended Arenado’s season early and took the blame for his reduced production, but that bum shoulder may not go away. We don’t know much about the injury, but it could be chronic, and with Arenado turning 30 later this year he may be hitting the point in his career when injuries start to affect the normally durable Arenado.

Arenado isn’t going to fall off a cliff, but there are a lot of question marks here for a third-round pick. Again, let’s compare him to Paul Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt still clobbered 34 home runs with 97 RBI in 2019, but it came with a .260 AVG and .346 OBP, both his lowest since his rookie year. Goldschmidt wasn’t a catastrophic bust, but he didn’t match his draft cost either. Anthony Rendon who is going about 10 picks after Arenado, has had consistent Statcast metrics and surface numbers over the last four years, and seems like the safer pick at cost. I would also rather skip Arenado and hunt for value a few rounds later, such as Eugenio Suarez at pick 80 or Yoan Moncada at 85.

Cavan Biggio, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 60

Biggio doesn’t get the same fanfare as his fellow second-generation teammates Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but the 25-year-old had a solid 2020 in his own right, putting up a 124 wRC+ in 265 PA. Biggio’s best attribute is his plate discipline, as he has a 16.1% career walk rate at the major league level. That walk rate was the primary driver of Biggio’s success at the plate, as his .250 AVG and .182 ISO are nothing special in today’s game, but his .375 OBP was ninth-best in the American League last season. The only problem is, Biggio doesn’t seem to have much to offer outside of that walk rate.

As mentioned above, Biggio’s .250 AVG and .182 ISO leave much to be desired, and both marks were just a hair above league average last year. Biggio hasn’t shown many signs that growth is coming either. He had an alarming .215 xBA and .347 xSLG last season, along with a pitiful 87.4 MPH average exit velocity and 30.8% hard hit rate. Statcast isn’t very flattering to Biggio, and neither are projections. Ariel Cohen’s ATC model is the most generous, pegging Biggio at a .241 AVG, 22 HR, 17 steals, 92 runs, and 72 RBI. That would be a best-case-scenario for Biggio, as other projection models give Biggio an average around .230, with just 10-14 steals. That simply isn’t good enough considering the draft cost. Everybody is enticed by the potential for a power-speed combo with Biggio, but he doesn’t do either well enough, and unless you’re in an OBP league he’ll drag down batting average as well.

Instead of Biggio, consider Yoan Moncada, who is going 25 picks later in NFBC drafts at pick 85. Moncada had an awful 2020 thanks to an untimely COVID infection that hindered Moncada’s ability all season, but Moncada possess similar stolen base potential and more power than Biggio. Moncada has also proven he can mash over a full season, posting a 140 wRC+ and .915 OPS in 2019, two marks Biggio hasn’t sniffed since Triple-A. I would rather have Moncada straight up over Biggio, but getting to wait 25 picks makes the decision even easier.

At pick 60, Biggio kind of falls into his own tier at third base. He’s the eighth third baseman off the board, and goes 17 picks after the seventh third baseman, Rafael Devers. Then, there are 20 picks between Biggio and the next third baseman, Eugenio Suarez. If you’re drafting a starting third baseman after pick 50 there’s plenty of value to be had, but Biggio isn’t it. He seems to get overhyped because of his association with all of the second-generation Blue Jays infielders, but he’s a clear cut below Bichette and Guerrero in my eyes.

Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies

ADP: 105

Bohm exploded onto the scene as a rookie last year, posting an impressive .338/.400/.481 triple slash in 180 Pas. That performance has sent the hype machine into overdrive for Bohm, who is just on the edge of the top-100 in NFBC ADP. It’s easy to see why fantasy players are getting excited about Bohm. His bat was highly touted as a prospect, he’s just 24 years old, he instantly produced in the majors, and he’s slated to bat in a premier spot for Philadelphia, right between two former NL MVPs in Andrew McCutchen and Bryce Harper. But can Bohm really live up to expectations in 2021?

To call his 2020 performance lucky would be an oversimplification, but there’s reason to believe Bohm was on the receiving end of some good fortune last year. His .410 BABIP is the most obvious indicator, and even with Bohm’s 90.2 MPH average exit velocity and 64 percentile sprint speed, it’s hard to maintain such a high BABIP. What makes it even harder is Bohm’s tendency to put the ball on the ground, with a 53.2% groundball rate in 2020. Bohm was especially lucky on the ground, maintaining a .299 BABIP on groundballs, compared to just a .229 BABIP on groundballs leaguewide. Most people wouldn’t expect Bohm to maintain a .338 AVG in 2021, but these numbers suggest that Bohm could experience a batting average drop greater than 50 points in 2021. Drafting Bohm should net you a pretty good player, but he may not turn into the star many predict he'll become in 2021.

If you’re looking for a high-upside youngster at third after pick 100, consider Pittsburgh’s Ke’Bryan Hayes at pick 141 instead of Bohm at pick 105. Hayes also had a hot stretch to start the season, posting a .376/.442/.682 triple slash in 95 PA. Obviously, Hayes won’t maintain those numbers, but he did have a .300 xBA, .497 xSLG, and a 92.8 MPH average exit velocity, all of which beat the Statcast numbers put up by Bohm. Bohm is a fine young hitter, but it doesn’t make much sense to draft him at cost when you can wait a few rounds and get a very similar player in Hayes. Bohm’s price tag is just a tad too rich this draft season.

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