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Veteran Value
What is Howie Kendrick worth? It's hardly the most exciting question, but if you're in the business of winning, it's one you ought to consider. Veteran players like Kendrick offer fantasy owners two things which can be worth their weight in gold during a long season: playing time and stable production.
If veterans are so valuable, then why don't we talk more about them? Simply put, they're boring. When you draft Kendrick, you know exactly what you're getting: a .285-.290 batting average along with 8-10 home runs and 13-14 stolen bases. He'll start around 140 games and be solid, if unspectacular, when he plays. You'll never win your league because of Kendrick, but you'll never lose it because of him either. That's Kendrick in a nutshell: safe, stable, and terribly boring.
On the other end of the spectrum we have a guy like Javier Baez. He's a player simply oozing potential. A breakout season from Baez could look a lot like the kind of production owners might expect out of Ian Desmond, a no-brainer third round pick. There's a reason though why people are drafting Baez in the 18th round rather than the third. For every universe in which Baez hits like an All-Star, there are two or three more in which he struggles to even stay above the Mendoza Line and finds himself back in the minors by the end of the season.
The best fit is largely a matter of team composition and league format. Past the first handful of rounds in the draft, every pick represents a tradeoff between floor and ceiling. When making a decision between the two, you ought to be asking yourself: how much would this player cost to replace? A bench player is easy to swap out. A starter is a much different story.
In a shallow league, replacements abound in free agency. If Baez busts, bringing in a new bat like Jed Lowrie is relatively painless. Likewise, if you snagged Desmond and Robinson Cano early in the draft, you can afford to stick Baez on the bench as you wait to see how he preforms. The loss of a bench player is unfortunate, but nothing dire. In this type of format you can afford to roll the dice without putting your season in jeopardy.
In a deep league, the value of veterans rises. If you play in an NL-only format or decided to wait late on middle infield, it's much less likely that you're drafting Baez to ride the bench. The closer he gets to your starting lineup, the more damaging a lost season from him becomes. The same is true in leagues which limit transactions or place other such barriers to free agency. After all, you don't want to be the guy paying through the nose for Zack Cozart in the middle of July.
Just like in the real game, veterans provide an important presence for fantasy lineups. They might not be a sexy pick, but there's real value to a player who's a near lock to play at an above average level throughout the season. Make sure you keep that in mind as you take your seat on draft day.
