The Cut List (Week 7) - Time to Let Go?

August 29, 2020

Nate Green's list of busts and overvalued players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 7 of the season.

Welcome back to the Cut List.

This article, for three weeks now, reviews several of ESPN's 25 most dropped players in the past week and, in order from most dropped to least (except most injured players), determines how reasonable that course of action has been. (Some players near the bottom of the ESPN and Cut lists may have shifted around between writing and publication.)

Stats are thru August 20. Recommendations are for mixed leagues -- redraft, unless otherwise noted, as keeper leagues have their own rules. (As do AL/NL-only, where players rostered this widely are going to have homes.) You can find ideas on how to replace your cut candidates at the Waiver Wire Pickups List/App.

Pedro Severino (C, BAL)

Severino sustained a hip injury on Sunday the 23rd and, having not played since, became this week's most-dropped ESPN player (who didn't go on the injured list). He's still not on the injured list, returning to the lineup on Friday the 28th. And so if he was dropped in your league, it's time to grab him again. Severino has only improved via major Statcast measurements in 2020 (.382 xwOBA, .297 xBA, .511 xSLG) from his 2019 breakout and remains a valuable catcher.

Verdict: Hold/pick up in all leagues (unless you have a top-level catcher).

Jon Lester (SP, CHC)

In 2019, Lester had his second underwhelming fantasy season in three years. 2020, with a 5.30 FIP and 5.13 xFIP, is threatening to become three in four for the 36-year-old. Oddly, Lester's successful season in 2018 came with his worst FIP in the 2017-19 period. This year's struggles are not a surprise, and the recent trend away from him is reasonable.

Verdict: Drop in 12-team and under. In 12 teams if you're not ready to cut yet, the Pittsburgh matchup is a solid one.

Clint Frazier (OF, NYY)

Frazier has only appeared in nine games this season, although he's hit .300/.364/.600 in them. Many of those missed games came this week, with the Yankees inactive, hence the drops. But Frazier has played nearly every game since returning from a foot injury on August 12 and the Statcast results have been excellent. With Aaron Judge back on the IL, the playing time for Frazier should be there.

Verdict: Hold or pick up in 12+.

Hector Neris (RP, PHI)

Once the Phillies traded for Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree, the writing was on the wall for Neris' closing job. That was enough to justify dropping him. It doesn't help that while Neris has never posted worse than a 4.21 FIP, the results had been inconsistent even previous to his 2020 struggles, with a tough 2018 as well. His 37.4 K% that year was actually his best, but this year it was just 18.4%, with an increasing walk rate to boot.

Verdict: Drop.

Brandon Bielak (SP, HOU)

After a successful start on August 17, Bielak had two terrible appearances of a combined two innings. He allowed four homers in one of those games and struck nobody out in the other. He's being dropped even harder at Yahoo than at ESPN and there's no reason to roster him anywhere until something is figured out.

Verdict: Drop.

Zach Plesac (SP, CLE)

Plesac continues to be punished for violating team protocol. If he had come back when fellow rule breaker Mike Clevinger did, his 24-2 K-BB ratio and 2.92 xFIP would make drops look silly. Instead, news broke that he would continue to be held down, and the floodgates opened.

Verdict: Drop.

Renato Nunez (1B, BAL)

Nunez is an everyday middle-of-the-lineup player who is hitting .281/.336/.500 on the season. So why the drops? He's had a rough couple weeks, hitting .234/.245/.319 since August 15. Another problem is the stacked nature of first base this year, making Nunez only a top-8 at his position on ESPN and top-16 on Yahoo (where he also has 3B eligibility). Lastly, the contact doesn't quite hold up his overall line, especially a .236 xBA. It adds up to a close call, since Nunez has been a productive hitter on the whole since 2018.

Verdict: Drops are okay in shallow leagues if there's a need on the wire. Should probably try to hold a little longer in 12-team and higher.

Casey Mize (SP, DET)

Mize is an interesting case. In two starts, he's only made it through 7 2/3 innings with a 7.04 ERA, but with nine strikeouts against two walks (plus his prospect pedigree) there is clearly the stuff and control for better results. His xFIP is a quite good 3.25. The Twins next isn't the greatest matchup but there's reason to hold in deeper leagues and see what you've got here, especially if and when he gets stretched out a little.

Verdict: Drop in 10. In 12-teamers it's more waiver-wire dependent. In 14+ see how he handles the Twins.

Spencer Turnbull (SP, DET)

At first, the runaway from Turnbull seems a bit rapid. He had two bad starts on August 15 and 20, but his other four have been good, and he boasts a 2.97 ERA with a 3.42 FIP. The 4.96 xFIP, however, is less impressive, as is the 1.32 WHIP. Turnbull and Mize also have a problem pitching for the Tigers, who went 47-114 last year and had a nine-game skid this season (although they've gone 14-7 outside of it). But the overarching truth is Turnbull, who also doesn't have the best strikeout stuff, has always been more of a deeper league kind of pitcher. His 4.63 xFIP last year was only marginally better than this.

Verdict: Drop in 12 and under.

Adrian Houser (SP, MIL)

Despite a disappointing 17.5 K%, Houser has achieved a 65.7 GB% this season so far. The home run suppression has unfortunately not followed, leading to a 5.25 FIP, but unsurprisingly with that ground ball rate the xFIP is a solid 3.77. Houser's start against the Reds Thursday was a big disappointment, but he gets the Tigers next. If he's not on a roster, he's at least a streaming candidate for that matchup. He could even conceivably get the Tigers again after that

Verdict: Hold or pick up in 12+ against Tigers if available, 10-teamers too if desperate or not risk-averse.

Garrett Hampson (IF/OF, COL)

Hampson is having some trouble getting everyday-consistent playing time, and while he mostly leads off when he starts, he has hit seventh or eighth more recently. For someone who has only hit the ball hard 20% of the time--that's the second percentile--and only holds a .252/.316/.392 career line in 473 PA, there's not a compelling reason to stay patient. Still, if you want to keep taking the breakout chance in a deeper league, it's not the worst thing yet. Just watch out in case he has a week with three starts while not batting higher than seventh.

Verdict: Drop except in 14+.

Joey Votto (1B, CIN)

2020 is looking like three straight years of a dip for Votto, who has fallen from .320/.454/.578 in 2017 to .191/.321/.326 so far in 2020. He still has a sharp eye and can make contact, but not good contact (e.g., 6th percentile in hard-hit rate, 35th in xSLG). He's 37 in September, so it's not the most surprising thing, but it's always unfortunate when a great hitter is no longer a great hitter.

Verdict: Drop except in deeper OBP leagues.

Other Drops To Consider

Victor Robles (OF, WAS)

Despite last week's suggestion, Adam Eaton had a good week with homers on August 24 and 25. Despite a homer and a steal early in the week, Eaton's outfield compatriot Robles did not have a good one. Somehow, that steal of Robles' was his first of the year, which is not what he was drafted for. He also continues last year's struggles with soft contact. In shallow leagues, at least, start looking for better, even if you want to hold out longer.

Bryan Reynolds (OF, PIT)

Reynolds hit .314/.377/.503 in a surprising 2019 debut. For him, the sophomore slump has been real so far: just a .200/.283/.347 line. In both seasons, xBA on Statcast has shown those results to be mostly fair: it was .300 last year and .235 this year. And while Reynolds' walks are up this year, his K rate has skyrocketed. A .314 average as a rookie is impressive, and keep on eye on Reynolds, but perhaps from afar.

Gavin Lux (2B, LAD)

Lux's recent call-up was short-lived. He was 0-for-3 as an extra man in a doubleheader and then went back down. He's on a roster in about half of leagues, but with it being so hard for him to break into the Dodgers roster, let alone starting lineup, Lux may at this point be the first person to move on from when other roster needs arise. Certainly his recent appearance wasn't worth waiting for.

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