The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 25

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued, and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 25 of the 2023 MLB season.

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 25. This is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding onto...for now.

The finish line is in sight and for many of us, we're in the playoffs or battling to reach first place in the final weeks. There's no time for sentiment but also a hasty drop could have major repercussions and undo months of hard work. As always, we're here to try and help you bring home a championship in your fantasy leagues.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the year progresses, there will be different reasons and stronger cases to drop underperforming players. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

William Smith - RP, Texas Rangers - 64% rostered, and Aroldis Chapman, RP, Texas Rangers - 52% rostered

That's right. I'm lumping in both Rangers relievers here and with good reason. Neither of them seems to want to stay in the closer role when they get the opportunity. To be fair to William Smith, he's stuck in the role for a pretty long time. But his grip on closing games loosened considerably recently.

First, a look at their numbers. Smith has a 2-5 W-L record, 3.76 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 51 Ks, and 22 saves (52.2 IP). Since joining the Rangers, Aroldis Chapman has a 1-2 W-L record, 3.04 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 42 Ks, and three saves (23.2 IP).

The numbers certainly give Chapman the edge as to who should close. Although his league-leading 42.4% K% this year has actually lent itself to more of a "firefighting" role. Coming in to pitch big situations rather exclusively in the ninth.

In the past, Chapman made it no secret he doesn't like pitching with runners on base. If the Rangers feel like the numbers back up that sentiment, they wouldn't likely use him in that "firefighter" role his numbers suggest he could excel at.

Now, we can look at their performances recently. Smith had a six-game stretch which effectively lost him the closer role. Between August 11 and 24, he totaled 4.1 IP and allowed 10 runs (eight earned) on nine hits and a walk. Two blown saves (and losses saw) him removed from closer duties.

Step up Chapman, who allowed just one run in six appearances (7.0 IP) between August 11 and 26. His six appearances (4.2 IP) since then have seen Chapman allow six runs (four earned) on four hits and seven walks.

One blown save and two losses later, Chapman appeared to have squandered his chance of being the closer. Yesterday, Smith got the last out of the seventh and then pitched the eighth inning after the Rangers took the lead in the bottom of the seventh.

Chapman then came in for the ninth and locked down his third save since being traded to Texas. On the surface, it looked like a straightforward case of how they would be used and them both being effective.

However, Smith allowed two hits and required a pick-off of Esteury Ruiz. And Chapman walked two of the five batters he faced while throwing just 10 of his 22 pitches for a strike. Against any team other than the Athletics, it may have been a different story.

Below is a look at the numbers for Chapman and Smith in save and non-save situations for the entire season. It begs the question as to whether or not Chapman will ever be able to deal with being an effective closer again over a longer period of time.

It appears as though Chapman is the main closer for the Rangers. He may stick there over the final three weeks of the season but that BB% is unsustainable to have any lengthy period of success.

To throw in an added wrinkle, the Rangers went from being one of the favorites to win the World Series to scrapping for a Wild Card berth. After winning their first eight games in August, they went on a 5-11 run to close out the month.

And September hasn't been much kinder to the Rangers. They've kicked it off with a 2-6 record and find themselves 3.0 GB of the Astros for the AL West and 1.5 GB of the final Wild Card spot.

Since August 14, only two Rangers relievers have picked up a save. Two for Chapman and one for Jose Leclerc. In that time, six of their bullpen have a blown save on their record. Chapman and Leclerc have two apiece, as do Brock Burke and Josh Sborz. Smith and Chris Stratton account for one each.

Leclerc has a 3.48 ERA since August 14 so you might think he could factor in for more saves. Given he has  5.00 xFIP and 4.23 SIERA this year, it'd be hard to trust him. Leclerc also has allowed four earned runs in his last five appearances (3.2 IP).

It's not so much the number of runs Chapman and Smith have been allowing. It's the frequency of them. Many closers get blown up for a few runs in an outing. But Smith allowing a run in five of six outings with Chapman doing the same before this week has really hurt their chances of securing the closer role.

Chapman seems like the better option for saves right now. His erraticism doesn't lend itself to keeping the closer role for long. If this was May or June, I'd suggest speculatively picking up Smith. With three weeks left, it may not be long enough for Chapman to completely lose the role.

Verdict: If you're in need of saves, rostering either (or both) isn't the worst idea. Chapman certainly appears like the better option of the two but it's impossible to trust him. With better opponents than the A's coming up for the Rangers, we could be in for a roller-coaster of a time watching this bullpen.

Rowdy Tellez - 1B, Milwaukee Brewers - 27% rostered

Rowdy Tellez is pretty low-rostered and will only be on teams in deeper leagues at this stage. Sadly though, there's really no need to roster him in any league right now. After slipping into a platoon role, Tellez has now fallen into a bench role.

Since his activation off of the IL (August 19), Tellez has tallied just 33 plate appearances. He's started just eight games, three of which saw him pinch-hit for after two plate appearances. He started on the bench in the Brewers' last five games before their weekend series with the Yankees.

Despite getting back-to-back starts in the Bronx, Tellez went 1-for-5 on Friday and then 0-for-2 on Saturday. Yesterday was an example of a game in which Tellez was pinch hit for after two plate appearances.

Considering Tellez has a .213/.287/.385 slash line with 13 homers, 44 RBI, 24 runs, and no stolen bases (92 games) this year, limited playing time makes sense. His Statcast profile is somewhat telling for Tellez this year also.

The Brewers' July acquisition of Carlos Santana raised some eyebrows but seems like a shrewd bit of business. His .234/.295/.416 slash line in Milwaukee isn't great but he's hit seven homers in 34 games. Since August 19, Santana has hit .279/.360/.481 and has a 128 wRC+.

With Santana locked in at first base, that only leaves the DH spot for Tellez. William Contreras generally fills that role when he's not catching and the Brewers have been using Christian Yelich as the DH more frequently of late.

A back issue saw Yelich scratched from yesterday's lineup. Given that's a problem he's dealt with for a while, more missed time is a possibility. That at least should keep the DH spot free a few times a week for Tellez.

Since Tellez returned from the IL, the Brewers have gone 13-5. It'll be even more difficult for Tellez to push for more playing time. Santana has been below-average defensively at first base this year, with -1 OAA (Outs Above Average). However, Tellez has -3 OAA.

Without an injury (news on Yelich pending), I don't foresee how Tellez can get enough playing time to warrant being rostered in any league size. And even when he has played, Tellez has barely done enough to help fantasy managers.

Verdict: In case you've been holding on to Tellez in deeper leagues, now is the time to safely pull the plug on his fantasy season. He's a year removed from hitting 35 home runs and isn't a free agent until the end of next year. So I'd still be holding in dynasty leagues but his light has certainly dimmed considerably this year. 

Justin Lawrence - RP, Colorado Rockies - 15% rostered

I'm breaking one of my unwritten rules with the inclusion of Justin Lawrence. I generally avoid including players who are rostered in less than 25% of leagues. At this stage of the season, I felt it worthwhile still.

Many of us are scrambling around for saves in a desperate bid to maintain our spot or climb up in the rankings. Therefore, anyone who could pick up a few saves can have value (including the Rangers duo).

And up until last weekend, Lawrence was the Rockies' main ninth-inning option. Since trading away Pierce Johnson to the Braves on July 24, Lawrence has been the guy to roster in the Rockies bullpen.

Following the Johnson trade, up until September 1, Lawrence was responsible for 100% of the Rockies' saves. Granted, there were only three saves, but he was still the undisputed closer in Colorado.

Last weekend, the Rockies were bailed out by Tyler Kinley after Lawrence nearly blew his sixth save since the Johnson trade. And earlier this week, Bud Black confirmed that Kinley was going to be the Rockies closer moving forward.

This specific situation won't impact most of you (although adding Kinley if you are desperate for saves wouldn't be the worst idea). It should also act as a pertinent reminder at this stage of the season.

Lawrence knows he's been struggling lately. As do all professional athletes when things aren't going well. While fantasy baseball can be emotive, even more so at this time of year, let's not forget that the players are people, too.

When your team's closer blows a save, they know they've blown a save. When a hitter grounds into a game-ending double play with the bases loaded, they know they had a chance to win the game. Let's just use Lawrence's situation as a reminder that the players don't need to hear any abuse on social media.

Players hurt more than we do when they struggle. If you ever get the urge to vent online about something, at the very least, don't tag/link them to it. And there is never a reason to be abusive or personal.

Verdict: Lawrence has no fantasy value over the remainder of this season. With the Rockies having home stands in two of the final three weeks of the season, Kinley is even more of a volatile option than he would be normally to replace him. Of course, if you're desperate for saves, Kinley should be under consideration given he should have the role exclusively. 

Hold For Now

Ryan McMahon - 2B/3B, Colorado Rockies - 79% rostered

As mentioned in the Justin Lawrence write-up, the Rockies have two week-long home stands coming up. This upcoming week sees them play seven home games, as does the final week of the season. There's a six-game road trip in between.

Ryan McMahon has been a consistently solid performer. Although his 93 wRC+ this year isn't great, it ties his career-high set last year. He ranks 132nd overall this year, 17th at second base and 18th at third base.

Over the last 30 days, McMahon ranks 362nd overall. That's largely down to the fact he's hit .215/.288/.355 in that time (24 games) with three homers. He's still scored 16 runs and has 10 RBI in the last 30 days, so the counting stats have been tallying up.

More recently, McMahon has been in a real slump. He went 7-for-25 in six games at home last week. This week, McMahon started off going 0-for-10 against the Diamondbacks (three games). He got Friday off and then went 0-for-4 yesterday against the Giants. All four games were on the road.

It's no surprise that Rockies hitters generally have better home numbers than road numbers. McMahon is no exception and this is exactly why he's worth holding for the remainder of the season.

Below shows us McMahon's home and road splits this year and throughout his MLB career.

McMahon also has considerably better numbers against right-handed pitching (RHP). This year, he's hitting .272/.359/.513 against RHP and .183/.251/.288 against LHP.

McMahon has a 121 wRC+ against RHP at home this year. That's the only split in which he has a better-than-average wRC+. On the road against LHP, McMahon has a -21 wRC+. He's completely unplayable in such situations.

The 14 games he's due to play at home are against the Cubs, Giants, Dodgers, and Twins. As of writing, those four teams are carrying a total of 14 (out of 20) RHP in their starting rotations.

On the numbers alone, it's likely McMahon gets to face 10 RHP at home over the next three weeks. Of course, there are no guarantees but things are looking promising at the very least for his fantasy value over the remainder of 2023.

If you can bench him for the penultimate week, even better. If you don't play the final week of the season in your leagues, then McMahon's value diminishes. I'd only look to play him in Week 25 and then drop him next Sunday.

Joey Meneses - 1B/OF, Washington Nationals - 68% rostered

Cast your minds back to the Week 16 edition of The Cut List. Back then, Joey Meneses had just hit his third, fourth, and fifth home runs of the season in the two prior games. I included Meneses as a Hold For Now in the hope he had just turned the corner on his season.

Prior to that weekend's series against the Rangers, Meneses was hitting .279/.322/.362 with two homers, 41 RBI, 30 runs, and no steals (80 games). As of now, after 134 games, Meneses is hitting .276/.325/.402 with 11 homers, 77 RBI, 63 runs, and no stolen bases.

Nothing outstanding there but nine homers in his last 54 games is quite reminiscent of last year. Meneses hit 13 homers in 56 games in 2022, which led to many drafting him and ultimately being disappointed this year.

Back in the Week 16 edition, I also (jokingly) took credit for Meneses' power outburst as I had traded for him in my dynasty league just hours before he hit the first of his four homers in three games.

And I'm hoping this reminder of my powers to spur Meneses into life works again. He's started September by going 2-for-21 and is hitting .258/.321/.330 since August 11 (26 games). He's tallied 14 RBI and 13 runs in that time but hasn't homered since August 8.

Meneses has shown he can hit for a good average over a three-week period. Between August 10 and September 1, Meneses hit .309. Between May 21 and June 10, Meneses hit .364. They're cherry-picked examples but still proof that Meneses can have three-week periods of production.

That's all we need from him now. Three weeks of hitting over .300 and Meneses could help carry some teams to a title, especially in head-to-head leagues. If he's also able to hit a few homers in that period, even better. Given he's hit his homers in clusters, there's a chance he could do it again.

Of course, on the flip side of that, Meneses could hit .220 over the final three weeks of the season. That would make him completely pointless in rostering. Depending on your circumstances, holding and hoping for another offensive outburst might not be ideal.

If you're chasing a fantasy title, whether it be in a roto league or head-to-head, I'd rather take a gamble on someone like Evan Carter or Jordan Lawlar. If you're after some stability and don't want to risk a prospect over the final three weeks, I'd be comfortable sticking with Meneses.

The fact Meneses has a .242 xBA, .348 xSLG, and .284 xwOBA (.317 wOBA) isn't suggestive of an offensive outburst. But Meneses has shown he can flip a switch, seemingly out of the blue.

If he's available on waivers, I wouldn't be rushing out to claim him. But if you've stuck with him throughout the season, letting him finish off the year on your rosters isn't the worst idea. If he can catch fire again, he'll have at least vindicated your patience.

On the Hot Seat

Jose Berrios - SP, Toronto Blue Jays - 82% rostered

Jose Berrios has quietly been having a very good season. Definitely a nice bounceback after his first full season in Toronto, when he posted a 5.23 ERA. In 28 starts, Berrios has a 9-10 W-L record, 3.68 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 153 Ks (164.0 IP).

He's on track to make it three consecutive seasons of starting 32 games. Berrios also made 32 starts in 2018 and 2019 while starting 12 games in the shortened 2020 season.

Since debuting in 2016, Berrios has yet to spend any time on the IL. Given the injury plight of so many starting pitchers, being able to draft someone you're confident in to avoid the IL all season is certainly an added bonus.

However, his recent struggles have been enough to put Berrios on the Hot Seat. Monday's start was a solid return to form from Berrios, allowing just two earned runs (6.0 IP). It did come against the Athletics though and was the third straight outing in which Berrios has allowed two home runs.

His two previous outings also saw Berrios allow five earned runs (both 6.0 IP). Prior to that, he completed 5.2 IP without allowing a run but walked four batters. And since August 1, Berrios has a 5.08 ERA (33.2 IP).

Berrios' recent struggles may simply be a case of natural regression. He's sporting a 4.21 xFIP and 4.24 SIERA on the year. Before August, Berrios had a 3.31 ERA with a 4.18 xFIP and 4.24 SIERA. The recent struggles are despite his underlying numbers remaining constant.

The above graph shows Berrios' cumulative xFIP and ERA throughout the season. We can see how after a rough start, Berrios brought his ERA down and maintained it. However, his xFIP has been climbing gradually, further evidence of his recent struggles being down to natural regression.

Over the course of the season, the difference between his ERA, xFIP, and SIERA suggests Berrios has not fallen (nor will not fall) off a cliff. And he doesn't have a bad schedule to finish up the season.

He's facing the Royals today and is then due to start against the Red Sox before two outings against the Yankees. Since August 1, the Red Sox rank 12th in runs scored (185) and the Yankees rank 25th (140).

If we look at just this month, since September 1, the Red Sox rank 10th (46) and the Yankees 25th (33). However far back we want to look, they're not bad matchups to end the season with.

If you believe in this sort of thing, Berrios has a career 4.34 ERA against the Red Sox (13 starts) and 5.01 ERA against the Yankees (10 starts). Familiarity breeds contempt so maybe they're not such good matchups after all. I don't put much weight behind those numbers, though.

A bad outing today will definitely heighten the concern about Berrios for the remainder of 2023. It would have to be a disaster outing to make me consider ousting Berrios for the final three weeks of the season.

With all that said, if you had to drop a pitcher for a hitter or your league doesn't play the final week and you need help elsewhere, I can understand sacrificing him.

Reddit Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and we'll ensure to cover three requests each week.

Sean Murphy - C, Atlanta Braves - 91% rostered

Sean Murphy's name has been mentioned multiple times throughout the season. It's nothing to do with his production, given he's ranked fourth among catchers this year. It's down to the lack of regular playing time.

Murphy ranking fourth is pretty remarkable given that 16 eligible catchers have had more at-bats than him (337) this year. You can't really question the Braves' methods either, considering they own the best record in baseball.

The reality is that Travis d'Arnaud will continue to get starts at catcher to maintain the health of both players. With a deep playoff run expected in Atlanta, they will want to ensure both players are as fresh as possible for the postseason.

I don't believe anyone is really considering dropping Murphy and it's more to do with the frustrations of him not playing. However, he's been struggling a bit lately and only ranks 22nd at the position over the last 30 days.

The season as a whole is what looks much rosier. In 98 games, Murphy has 20 homers, 67 RBI, 62 runs, and no stolen bases with a .270/.381/.510 slash line. In 50 fewer games than last season, Murphy has set career-highs in homers and RBI. Six more runs will be a career-high in that category also.

It may seem counter-intuitive to say Murphy is still a must-roster player given volume matters so much at the position. But considering what he's done with less playing time than most other fantasy-viable catchers, it's an endorsement of his talents.

If we look at where Murphy ranks at the position among each of the standard categories, we can see why he's still worth rostering. The AVG and OPS ranks are among all catcher-eligible players with at least 300 plate appearances this year.

Friday saw Murphy sit for a second consecutive day. That might become common in the coming weeks if the Braves try and protect him even more for the playoffs. If we find Murphy is only playing a couple of games per week, then his value will likely diminish to a point where he is droppable.

Even playing four times a week, Murphy has proven he can be a top-five catcher in fantasy. If the season's playing time split with d'Arnaud continues for the final three weeks, Murphy is still very much rosterable.

Joe Musgrove - SP, San Diego Padres - 89% rostered

It's been a frustrating season for Joe Musgrove and his fantasy managers. He didn't make his season debut until April 22 due to a toe injury. He's been back on the IL since August 1 due to a shoulder injury.

Last week, we heard that Musgrove was throwing and expected to pitch again this season. Given what he's done when healthy this season, that's excellent news for his fantasy managers.

Musgrove has a 10-3 W-L record, 3.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 97 Ks (97.1 IP). If we remove the game in Mexico City, Musgrove has a 2.49 ERA. His 3.71 xFIP and 3.78 SIERA suggest a bit of luck has been involved but he's still been excellent.

There's no question as to whether he's been good enough to warrant holding onto. It's just a case of if he can and will pitch again this year. It sounds like he certainly can if he continues recovering like he has been. I'm just not convinced he will.

Bob Melvin's comments are a warning that if the Padres are out of any playoff contention, it's highly unlikely they send Musgrove to the mound again.

The Padres find themselves 8.0 GB of a Wild Card spot. If they were chasing down one team, they may have a chance of catching them. There are currently six teams with a better record than them vying for Wild Card spots.

It's very difficult to see them being able to overtake four teams to reach the playoffs. That's reflected in the 0.3% chance they've got of making the playoffs (according to Fangraphs).

From next Friday, the Padres' schedule is one of the easier ones. They face the Athletics, Rockies (at home), Cardinals, Giants, and White Sox. That's why it's so appealing to keep hold of Musgrove even if he can only pitch once more this year.

If Musgrove is able to potentially return for two or three starts, even better. But it probably wouldn't be wise for the Padres to risk him. If you have a spare IL spot on your teams, then keep Musgrove on there by all means.

If you don't have that luxury and need the bench spot for someone who will likely be able to help you this season, I have no problem dropping Musgrove.

Lucas Giolito - SP, Cleveland Guardians - 68% rostered

Lucas Giolito is currently on his third team this year. He appears to be a much more sought-after commodity in real life than he is in fantasy. On the year, Giolito has a 7-13 record, 4.89 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 177 Ks (163.2 IP).

His six starts with the Angels resulted in a 6.89 ERA (32.2 IP) and their salary dump saw him claimed off waivers by the Guardians. Yesterday was his second start for Cleveland. After allowing nine earned runs (3.0 IP), it was certainly an improvement.

Giolito did take the loss and allowed four earned runs on four hits and no walks. He struck out nine but was once again victimized by the long ball, allowing three homers for the third consecutive start.

I think it is quite telling that the two teams to have traded for/claimed Giolito are both teams that at the time, were "going for it without really going for it." The Angels and Guardians are both set to miss out on the playoffs. While Giolito isn't to blame for either, he's not on a top team's roster for a reason.

Last year's 4.90 ERA could be seen as unlucky given Giolito's 3.66 xFIP and 3.79 SIERA. This year, he has a 4.46 xFIP and 4.20 SIERA. Both are better than his ERA but not to a point where you would say Giolito has been unlucky again. Giolito's xFIP and SIERA are both five-year highs.

His 29.1 FB% and 11.0 Barrel% are both career highs, while Giolito's 42.3 hard-hit% is his highest since his 2016 debut season. He only threw 398 total pitches that year.

In fact, other than Giolito's 25.3 K%, nothing has been above average from him this year. And even that is a five-year low and considerably down from the 29.2 K% he put up across the previous four seasons.

Giolito is heading into free agency on the back of his worst season since 2018. It's a second straight season with an ERA near 5.00. If last year was unlucky, this year has just been bad.

Given the injuries to pitchers right now, I'd be inclined to say Giolito is still worth holding. Unfortunately, his next two starts are scheduled to be against the Rangers and Orioles. That's two offenses I wouldn't look to start him against.

With the Guardians deploying a six-man rotation, all that's left would be a start against the Tigers. He will still likely pile up the strikeouts and could reach 200 Ks on the season over his next three starts.

Unless you have a deep enough bench you can stash him on (assuming you play the final week), there isn't much reason to keep Giolito rostered outside of needing Ks. Realistically, one win and ~25 Ks with a 4.50 ERA are all you can expect from him over the remainder of 2023.

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