The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 17

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 17 of the 2022 MLB season.

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

The trade deadline is in two days and there will surely be some last-minute moves that will have significant fantasy impacts. No doubt, next week we will have to cover some players as potential drops following moves made by their teams. But for now, monitor the news over the next 48 hours. And there's no better way to follow all the moves and the fantasy impact than by downloading the free RotoBaller app! It is genuinely a fantastic tool for all your fantasy needs.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the season progresses, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit or reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Tyler Stephenson - C/1B, Cincinnati Reds - 72 % rostered

Stephenson is back on the IL for the third time this year after breaking his clavicle last week. We are yet to hear a timeframe for a return but it's another blow for the Reds catcher who is in the midst of having a productive season. Here he is talking about the injury.

In 50 games, Stephenson has six homers, 35 RBI, 24 runs, and one stolen base while hitting .319/.372/.482. A nice follow-up to his rookie season in which he hit .286/.366/.431 with 10 homers, 45 RBI, 56 runs, and no stolen bases (132 games).

Without a clear indication of when Stephenson can return, it's difficult to know what to do with him but given he's avoided surgery, sounds like a return sometime in August isn't beyond the realms of possibility. I don't believe the Reds will take any risks with Stephenson.

It goes without saying that a catcher needs a fully healthy right shoulder to be able to function so the Reds could still bring him back but use him as the DH or at first base. But given they are so far out of contention, the cautious approach makes the most sense.

Verdict - As I always say "if you have an IL spot you can stash Stephenson on, then do so". But while the catcher position is thin, there are options available to you. Eight of the top-15 catchers this year on Yahoo! are less than 65% rostered and five of them are under 50% rostered so finding help at the position shouldn't be too difficult.

Trevor Rogers – SP, Miami Marlins – 57% rostered

It may seem strange condoning dropping a pitcher who had a 2.64 ERA (133.0 IP) last year and came second in the NL Rookie of the Year award. But here we are. That's because Rogers has a 4-10 W-L record, 5.85 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and 83 Ks (87.2 IP) from his 19 starts.

And while his underlying numbers do suggest he's been a bit unlucky with his ERA, it's not at the point I'm expecting a turnaround in his fortunes would make him rosterable either. Rogers has a 4.92 xERA, 4.45 xFIP, and 4.50 SIERA.

The main problem Rogers has had so far this season is facing a lineup for the second and third times. That is true for many starting pitchers, but if we see his numbers each time through the order (below), it highlights just how badly Rogers has struggled after the first time.

Rogers' fastball has just been far too ineffective this year which is the main cause of these struggles. After putting up a .300 wOBA on his four-seamer in 2021, this year it has a .427 wOBA. That's despite it being very similar in velocity and spin rates.

Rogers was placed on the 15-day IL with back spasms on Friday, meaning he'll miss at least one start. It could be just a case of finding a reason to place Rogers on the IL so he can take a breather and work on some things without the pressures of playing so the 'injury' doesn't really sway my decision any.

Verdict - All in all, it's been a huge step back for Rogers this year and I don't see anything in his numbers to suggest its turnaround over the next few weeks. I'm still bullish on his long-term prospects so will hold him in dynasty leagues. But in redraft leagues, I'm fine dropping Rogers in all but the very deepest of leagues.

Joc Pederson – OF, San Francisco Giants – 66% rostered

There's a chance Pederson has a new home before the deadline, although the Giants are publically saying they're not sellers at the deadline. Given he's a free agent at the end of this season and is purely a platoon bat, if they get a good offer, I'm sure the Giants will be at least very tempted.

But those odds of Pederson moving before the deadline look slimmer now he's on the 7-day IL with a concussion after colliding with the outfield wall on Thursday. The Giants wanted to proceed with caution given Pederson has suffered a concussion before (when with the Dodgers).

Regardless of where Pederson is plying his trade during the rest of this season, his value shouldn't really alter much (other than landing in a hitter-friendly ballpark). That's because he is not going to be starting against left-handed pitchers (LHP) and probably won't be in the heart of the lineup like he is for the Giants.

The Giants rank seventh in runs scored (467) this year so it's not like there are many better options in terms of better offenses to join. But what about Pederson's numbers? Well, there's no doubt he's having a productive year, hitting .242/.319/.492 with 17 homers, 43 RBI, 36 runs, and three stolen bases (87 games).

The reason I mentioned earlier that he is purely a platoon bat is his splits. Below shows hit career numbers and this year's numbers against LHP and RHP.

We can see Pederson has always struggled against LHP but this year's splits are even more contrasting. The other issue for Pederson, fantasy managers, and possible MLB suitors is his recent slump. After hitting five or six homers each month to start the season, Pederson is homerless in July and hitting just .133/.221/.200 this month (68 plate appearances).

Of course, Pederson can get out of his slump and go on a power surge. He's done it once already this season so I wouldn't be against it happening again. And he still ranks as the 51st overall outfielder on Yahoo! despite his recent struggles.

Verdict - Pederson has much more value in leagues with daily roster moves, enabling fantasy managers to sit him when facing LHP. In weekly roster move leagues, it takes much more planning and assessment from you as to what your best option will be.

As a result, I'm fine with dropping Pederson if you are in shallower leagues or those that have weekly roster moves. But maybe wait and see if he does end up being traded as his approach in somewhere like Yankee Stadium (as unlikely as that is), could be a league changer.

Hold For Now

Nick Castellanos – OF, Philadelphia Phillies – 94% rostered

I was on the brink of putting Castellanos in the "Worth Dropping and Replacing" section. But the reality is, as bad as Castellanos has been, he's still contributing enough to warrant being on rosters. Just.

Currently ranked as the 63rd overall outfielder on Yahoo!, we can give up on him returning value on his ADP (~58 overall and 18th outfielder). But that doesn't necessarily mean he should just be dropped, despite only hitting .250/.294/.367 with eight homers, 47 RBI, 39 runs, and four stolen bases (100 games).

The main disappointment for fantasy managers has been the lack of power. After hitting 34 homers last year and 124 in 663 games since 2017 (averaging 30 home runs every 162 games in that span), he's on course for failing to reach 20 in a full season since 2016. He may not even reach the 14 homers he hit in 2020's 60-game season.

And you can tell he's frustrated with the situation after being booed by Phillies fans last weekend. Full disclosure, I agree it was a stupid question but Castellanos' response is clearly that of someone not in a good place right now.

So why am I saying not to drop him? Well, I've already stated he's 63rd overall among outfield-eligible players, so in 12-team leagues that play five outfielders, he's on the borderline, especially when you factor in the utility spot and the fact there's some above him on the IL, eligible for other positions, etc.

And among the outfielders, Castellanos ranks tied-24th for RBI so has been a big help in that department without hurting you in the other categories. Sure, eight homers are not good and 72 outfielders have hit more than him so far. But it's still not a blackhole like a Myles Straw-type player.

We also have to consider the upside Castellanos has. He might not rediscover his power over the last two months of the season, but he's got the track record to suggest he could double his tally of eight over the next few weeks.

If you have had enough of Castellanos on your fantasy team, I totally understand you dropping him in shallow leagues. But he's still clinging on to relevancy and has only slipped down to fifth in the Phillies' lineup so should still be able to put up good RBI numbers at the very least.

Nathan Eovaldi – SP, Boston Red Sox – 84% rostered

After missing more than a month with a back issue, Eovaldi hasn't been back (no pun intended) to his old self. Wednesday was his third start since returning from the IL and despite it being a "quality start," I feel like taking a shower for having to use the word quality when describing it.

Against the Guardians, Eovaldi went 6.0 IP, allowing five runs (three earned) on nine hits and no walks while striking out just one batter. That's still a marked improvement on his previous start in which Eovaldi allowed nine earned runs in just 2.2 IP against the Blue Jays (not helped by Jarren Duran being unable to see flyballs).

That has left Eovaldi with a season line of a 4-3 W-L record, 4.43 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 80 Ks in 81.1 IP (15 starts). Before the back injury, Eovaldi had a 3.16 ERA so it's clear he's really struggled since his return. And it didn't take me long to find out why.

Thanks to Jon Anderson (@JonPGH), who you should go follow on Twitter as he does some amazing work with Python and Tableau among other things, who tweeted this out before Wednesday's outing:

On Wednesday, Eovaldi's pitch velocities were:

FF (four-seam fastball) - 94.7 MPH
FS (split finger) - 87.8 MPH
CU (curveball) - 76.6 MPH
SL (slider) - 85.2 MPH
FC (cutter) - 89.6 MPH

So it's clear that Eovaldi hasn't been able to ramp up the velocity since returning from the IL and the results have reflected that. Whether or not he can get back to his pre-back issue self remains to be seen but anyone who has had a back problem (i.e those of us over 30-years-old) will know that's not a given.

There are stories circulating about the Red Sox seemingly willing to listen to offers on some of their veterans who are out of contract at the end of this season. Eovaldi is one of them. Whether he moves remains to be seen but the priority for me would be seeing his velocity tick up, wherever he finishes the season.

For now, I'm holding on to Eovaldi as he's only put up one dreadful start of the three since returning and if he can get fully healthy, his early season numbers are those of a top-30 starting pitcher. If you're chasing in your leagues, Eovaldi could be a decent gamble to trade for right now in case he does manage to right the ship.

Patrick Sandoval – SP, Los Angeles Angels – 66% rostered

Sandoval is having a solid season but will likely be glad to see the back of July. From five starts this month, Sandoval has an 0-5 W-L record, 6.20 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, and 32 Ks (24.2 IP). On the season, he has a 3-7 W-L record, 3.61 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and 97 Ks (89.2 IP) from 17 starts.

Obviously, the one thing that really stands out is that WHIP. Only three wins aren't great but he can't do too much about the Angels' offense and bullpen. His WHIP is my main concern. And it's largely down to his 10.2% BB%, which ranks in the 21st percentile.

The reason Sandoval has still managed to have success and keep his ERA down is due to limiting hard contact (36.7% HardHit%) and not giving up home runs (which are linked of course). Of the 101 pitchers with 80.0+ IP this year, Sandoval's 4.9% HR/FB% is the lowest and the four home runs he's given up are the fewest.

Sandoval's 24.2% K% is in the 62nd percentile so he is putting up better than average strikeout numbers and his underlying numbers don't scream that he's been lucky and should regress. Sandoval has a 4.53 xERA, 3.77 xFIP, and 3.61 SIERA. The disparity between his xERA and other numbers is down to the low home run rate.

Sandoval is tallying good strikeouts and as long as his ERA remains in check, I can cope with the high WHIP and lack of wins. In the shallowest of leagues, Sandoval's numbers won't be of much use so he is replaceable but he's still rosterable if you need strikeouts. Sandoval should have a much better August than July.

On the Hot Seat

Lucas Giolito – SP, Chicago White Sox – 94% rostered

To say it's been a down year so far for Giolito would be an understatement. After coming into the season with an ADP of ~42 (10th starting pitcher), his numbers so far have him as one of the biggest fantasy busts of 2022. In 18 starts, Giolito has a 6-6 W-L record, 5.14 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and 108 Ks (96.1 IP).

In the three seasons prior to this year, Giolito compiled a 29-21 W-L record, 3.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 526 Ks (427.2 IP) in 72 starts. So he had been a consistently high-level performer and justified being a top-10 starting pitcher taken in drafts.

If we compare his Statcast profiles for the last four years, it should help demonstrate how surprising this year's performances have been.

And it's been a season of two halves for Gioltio so far. In his first nine starts, he had a 3.54 ERA. His last nine starts have compiled a 6.75 ERA. There's also been a sharp decline in his strikeout numbers with a 30.4% K% in his first nine starts and 21.5% K% in his last nine starts.

But Giolito can consider himself to be a bit unlucky this year as he has a 4.53 xERA, 3.76 xFIP, 3.76 SIERA, and .349 BABIP. That's the third highest BABIP among the 77 pitchers with at least 90.0 IP this year while his 16.1% HR/FB is the sixth highest among that group of pitchers.

After allowing six earned runs in three innings against the Guardians, I was seriously concerned for Giolito on Wednesday when he allowed three earned runs in the first inning at Coors Field, but he settled in to throw four more innings without giving up a run.

Remember that Jon Anderson (@JonPGH) guy I mentioned earlier? Well, he ran some analysis on each team's strength of schedule for pitching and hitting. And the White Sox have the third easiest schedule for their pitchers the rest of the season.

So given his misfortune, his track record, and easier schedule for the remainder of the season, I'm keeping Giolito on my rosters. But if we're in late August and Giolito's ERA is still north of five, I won't be relying on him for the final run-in so would it be worth keeping him on your rosters?

Reddit Requests

Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Adam Wainwright – SP, St. Louis Cardinals – 88% rostered

Ol' Father Time might remain undefeated, but he can certainly be stalled. Wainwright is the prime example of achieving that. The 40-year-old is now on the verge of having a third straight sub-3.50 ERA season and is actually improving his career 3.35 ERA.

This year, Wainwright has made 20 starts and has a 7-8 W-L record, 3.28 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 99 Ks (123.1 IP). Over the last three seasons, Wainwright has now put up a 3.14 ERA in 395.1 IP with a 29-18 W-L record. Wainwright is also the poster boy for why you shouldn't use Statcast profiles as the "be-all-and-end-all" when assessing a player's performance.

The strikeouts were always going to be lacking, given his 20.8% K% between 2019 - 2021, so a 19.6% K% (29th percentile) this year shouldn't come as any surprise. But he continues to minimize hard contact (37.6% HardHit%) and his 46.3% GB% is 19th among qualified pitchers (61).

That certainly is helped with the infield defense the Cardinals have. As a team, they rank first in Outs Above Average (21 OAA), first in runs prevented (16), and the 41 errors as a whole are the second-fewest. And even when Wainwright had a blip, he was still decent.

Since May, Wainwright has not had a spell of any four straight starts totaling an ERA above 4.68. That includes his seven-run outing (5.1 IP) against the Reds last week, which was sandwiched between a one-run (7.0 IP) and no-run (5.1 IP) outing.

Wainwright's underlying numbers do suggest some luck as his 4.48 xERA, 3.83 xFIP, and 4.08 SIERA are higher than his ERA. But that's where the Cardinals' excellent defense comes into play so I don't foresee an ERA implosion the rest of the season.

You won't get great strikeout numbers from Wainwright but there's no reason to believe he'll just crumble over the last two months of the season and he's not someone I'd be considering dropping in any league.

Alex Verdugo – OF, Boston Red Sox – 73% rostered

Like the Red Sox, Verdugo had been scuffling along during the middle part of the season. Entering the All-Star break, Verdugo had a .246/.279/.277 slash line in July with no homers, five RBI, three runs, and one stolen base (16 games).

Since the All-Star break, things have picked up for the Boston outfielder as he's hitting .343/.343/.372 with no homers, three RBI, three runs, and no steals (nine games). Both are small sample sizes but it's given Verdugo's fantasy managers a reason for optimism.

And they need it as Verdugo's having a disappointing campaign so far, with six homers, 51 RBI, 39 runs, and one stolen base while hitting .270/.309/.375 (95 games). He's never had much power or speed (33 homers and 14 steals in 357 MLB games prior to 2022) but his .290 career average prior to this year was his main fantasy asset.

Verdugo's 51 RBI ranks tied-15th among all outfielders and he's tied-57th in runs so has still contributed in those counting stats making him viable for any roster which plays five outfielders in your lineups. And Verdugo's batting average isn't bad (just down for him), ranking tied-36th among all outfielders with 200+ at-bats.

Verdugo's expected stats are considerably better than his actual stats, with a .293 xBA (95th percentile), .447 xSLG (78th percentile), and .336 xwOBA (73rd percentile). His rolling xwOBA shows that even during struggles, he's been barely below a league-average hitter. And only for a short period of time.

Verdugo has been hitting second and third in the Red Sox lineup recently but even while he was hitting fifth, I'd still recommend Verdugo as being rosterable, especially if you need help in RBI and runs. And I expect him to hit .280 or better over the remainder of the season, so as long as you're not in desperate need of homers or steals, Verdugo is worth keeping around.

Paul Blackburn – SP, Oakland Athletics – 45% rostered

Blackburn entered this season with a 5.74 ERA and 1.49 WHIP as a Major League pitcher (138.0 IP over five seasons). He was only taken in four of the 1,306 NFBC drafts this preseason. So if you said back in March that he'd end up pitching in the All-Star game, a team of people in white coats would have carted you off for in-depth experimentation and analysis.

But, they would have been wrong to do so. Following his 16th start of the season, Blackburn had a 6-3 W-L record, 2.90 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 67 Ks (87.0 IP). Unfortunately for Blackburn, regression then hit and his next three starts saw him give up 21 earned runs in 14.1 IP.

But last night was a nice bounceback for Blackburn as he threw five shutout innings against the White Sox, with four strikeouts, five hits, and no walks. Unfortunately, the Athletics bullpen combined to give up three runs and Blackburn finished without getting the win.

That's left his season numbers as a 6-6 W-L record, 4.15 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 86 Ks (106.1 IP). If we look at his season as a whole, regression was due but the last three starts before yesterday were extreme. Blackburn now has a 3.86 xERA, 3.83 xFIP, and 4.04 SIERA.

In reality, there was nothing to suggest Blackburn would have a mini breakout this year. In 301.0 IP at the Triple-A level, Blackburn had a 4.19 ERA. Last year in the Minor Leagues, he had a 4.97 ERA (88.2 IP) and a 4.34 ERA in 2019 (132.2 IP).

This year's 19.3% K% is a career-high in the Majors without any significant change in his pitch arsenal or velocity. I'm interested to see how things pan out for the rest of this season but for now, Blackburn's first half of the season looks like an anomaly more than a legit breakout.

That being said, in deeper leagues, I'm not prepared to drop Blackburn just yet. Last night's outing was a good bounceback, albeit against a so-so offense. And would give me confidence in streaming him in better matchups. I'll still be watching Blackburn closely for the remainder of 2022 regardless of if he's on my rosters.

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