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Welcome back to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. With nearly two months in the books, fantasy managers can start building more accurate profiles for pitchers who could continue to help or hurt their teams. This week, I'll look at a metric that indicates how much damaging contact pitchers allow: barrels per batted-ball events (Brls/BBE%).
A barrel is a batted-ball event whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum of .500 batting average and a 1.500 slugging percentage. In other words, a barrel is a hit profile tied to the most damaging contact a pitcher can allow. MLB.com has more information and a nice visual to further explain.
I have written about the quality of contact and launch angle separately so far this season, but Brls/BBE% ties those together. Using Brls/BBE% as opposed to Brls/PA only considers balls that were actually hit. Allowing damaging contact leaves little room for fantasy success, so let's take a look at some Studs and Duds!
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Brls/BBE% Studs for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 28, 2023.
Josh Fleming, Tampa Bay Rays
1-0, 3.59 ERA, 12.0% Strikeout Rate, 2.3% Brls/BBE%
This first pitcher is worth investigating given his interesting fantasy role. Josh Fleming has only made two starts for the Rays but has averaged almost 4 1/3 innings per outing as a bulk reliever. He has pitched well in that role, compiling a 3.59 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 12.0% strikeout rate. He has done a great job avoiding barrels with a 2.3% Brls/BBE%. As a reliever returning a starter's workload and numbers, is Fleming worth a look?
As a note, Fleming got trounced in his Sunday start against the Dodgers and allowed five home runs. While those numbers will negatively impact his season stats, this appearance does appear to be simply an awful outlier.
Fleming is not an overpowering pitcher and pitches to contact at an 83.9% clip. He does allow slightly harder contact but has an excellent -2.1-degree launch angle given his reliance on a sinker, changeup, and curveball. His avoidance of barrels can be attributed to his pinpoint pitch location and the movement on his pitches. He has kept all of his main pitches in the bottom of the zone and has gotten above-average movement on them.
The Rays have often been creative with their pitching staff and Fleming is an example of this. He won't contribute strikeouts, but fantasy managers essentially get a starting pitcher for a great team in the form of a relief pitcher. His strategy of pitching to contact while avoiding damaging contact has worked well and appears sustainable. Whether fantasy managers are in points leagues and looking for an SP/RP or are looking to bolster their ratios in roto leagues, Fleming is a sneaky option.
Marcus Stroman, Chicago Cubs
4-4, 2.95 ERA, 21.3% Strikeout Rate, 2.8% Brls/BBE%
Marcus Stroman has been a high-floor fantasy starter throughout his career due to his successful approach as a groundball, pitch-to-contact pitcher. He has gotten off to a stellar start once again, going 4-4 with a 2.95 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 21.3% strikeout rate, and 2.8% Brls/BBE% in 11 starts. Let's take a closer look at Stroman's performance.
Stroman relies on six different pitches and has located all of them well. While he has allowed harder-than-average contact, he has avoided damaging contact due to his pitch location and a 3.1-degree launch angle. There isn't much more to dive into here, as Stroman's overall numbers have remained steady for the last four seasons.
Stroman may not be the flashiest fantasy option, but he has been consistent, which has been a hard-to-come-by quality in starters so far this season. Like Fleming, he pitches to contact but avoids damaging contact while also providing decent strikeout numbers considering his approach. Stroman should continue to be a reliable mainstay in fantasy managers' lineups.
Brls/BBE% Duds for Fantasy Baseball
All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 28, 2023.
Louie Varland, Minnesota Twins
2-1, 4.24 ERA, 23.8% Strikeout Rate, 9.1% Brls/BBE%
One of the more exciting aspects of this fantasy season has been all the young starters getting opportunities. Louie Varland has made good on his so far, going 2-1 with a 4.24 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 23.8% strikeout rate in six starts with the Twins. One not-so-solid part of his game has been his high 9.1% Brls/BBE%. Is this something that fantasy managers should be concerned with?
Varland has relied heavily on fastballs, throwing his four-seamer and cutter 72 percent of the time. He hasn't located those pitches particularly well and it has reflected in his batted-ball profile. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the bottom 25 percent of baseball to go with a 13.4-degree launch angle. Interestingly, while his 4.60 xERA supports his batted-ball profile, his 3.80 SIERA suggests he has actually pitched pretty well considering his surrounding environment.
As always, I am skeptical of a starter who relies heavily on fastballs. Rarely can a starter find continued success by throwing a non-elite fastball often, especially if their location isn't great. While Varland's metrics under the hood are somewhat of a mixed bag, I would remain cautious with him. At this time, I think he is safer in points leagues than roto leagues, as potential regression would affect fantasy managers more heavily in the latter.
Michael Lorenzen, Detroit Tigers
2-2, 3.50 ERA, 18.8% Strikeout Rate, 10.2% Brls/BBE%
Michael Lorenzen has spent time as a pitcher, hitter, and outfielder throughout his career and has settled into the Tigers' starting rotation this season. He has a serviceable 3.50 ERA, 1.10 WHIIP, and 18.8% strikeout rate through eight starts. However, he has gotten barreled frequently with a 10.2% Brls/BBE%. Rostered in just 22 percent of leagues, is Lorenzen a pitcher who fantasy managers should consider?
Looking under the hood, Lorenzen has mixed in seven different pitches this season. He has gotten mixed results with them but ultimately has allowed hard contact overall with a 9.2-degree launch angle. His 90.6 mph exit velocity is the highest of his career, but his pitch location has been pretty good.
Nothing else really stands out here. Lorenzen's overall Statcast profile isn't great, but he has turned in some solid starts lately and has averaged almost six IP per start. It helps that he pitches in the relatively weak American League Central.
Lorenzen may not be a high-end fantasy option, but he should be a useful streaming option throughout the season. He has given up some hard contact but has managed to pitch well enough to go fairly deep into games. He should have another opportunity to provide fantasy managers with some production in his next start at the White Sox.
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